EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[Ptarmigan]

It would be a worse disaster than Mitch for Nicaragua.

probably not. Felix was nowhere near as bad for Nicaragua, nor was Joan. The main issue with Mitch was a rainband that remained over Nicaragua for about 4 days

Also, Mitch had a larger area of circulation compared to Felix or Joan.

[Sanibel]

Has persistence. This is about the only area where formation is possible this time of year.

Will either just make it or not.

It will probably form because it already has good rotation in an area where rotation is hard to get in the Gulf Of Panama.

[abajan]

... possibly the latest Atlantic storm I have ever tracked since I began tracking storms quite a long time ago. ...

When you were just 6 years old, the Atlantic had a record breaking hurricane season where storms kept forming all the way into late December. And all that seems like just the other day to me because I'm 52!

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%-90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure area over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea have
become a little better organized during the past couple of hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Monday while
the low remains nearly stationary. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Nimbus]

Once that trough moves a little further off the east coast maybe there will be some western motion of the storm, but doesn't look like much steering at the moment.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

... possibly the latest Atlantic storm I have ever tracked since I began tracking storms quite a long time ago. ...

When you were just 6 years old, the Atlantic had a record breaking hurricane season where storms kept forming all the way into late December. And all that seems like just the other day to me because I'm 52!

Certainly the latest Caribbean storm I can recall tracking... Lenny in 1999 was also quite late in the year for a storm in the Caribbean.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic and 1949-2009 for the Eastern Pacific from the HURDAT database.



http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hurricanes_origins.php

[Sanibel]

Popping. Forming.

[NotoSans]

Up to 90% in the latest TWO. Advisories are likely to be initiated very soon.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase and become better organized over the past
several hours, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm appears
to be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will likely be issued on this disturbance later this morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[EquusStorm]

Probably has been at least a depression if not more for 24 hours now, but given the time of the year, I can understand the persistence factor. Almost certainly will wake up to a classified system.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, 0Z Euro drops it - a weak TS at best heading towards Nicaragua/Costa Rica. Could be the result of the Euro picking up the stable airmass to the northwest, whose impacts models tend to underestimate at these early junctures.

[Alyono]

FWIW, 0Z Euro drops it - a weak TS at best heading towards Nicaragua/Costa Rica. Could be the result of the Euro picking up the stable airmass to the northwest, whose impacts models tend to underestimate at these early junctures.

Could be the resolution issue as well. I disregarded the EC in its entirety in a recent forecast due to its inconsistency. Hard to be confident when it goes from a cat 3, down to a weak TD, back to a strong hurricane, and then after it has developed, back to a weak TD.

I am not going as strong as the latest HWRF though. I'd like to see far better consolidation first

[Alyono]

UKMET continues to have a strong TS, probably would be a cane if it had higher resolution

[NotoSans]

We now have TD 16L.

[abajan]

We now have TD 16L.

Yep. Time to change the thread titles! But what's happening here?



(That's how the S2K header looked a few minutes ago. But it's fixed now.)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

There looks to be v/good dvrg alof the depression will likely further strengthen over the next few days. low pressure to the East looks to be also getting rotation in the strong convergence along the trof atm.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized over
the past 12 hours, including the development of some banding
features. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft yesterday
between 1900-2000 UTC indicated that the low had a well-defined
circulation center, along with flight-level winds of 38 kt and SFMR
surface winds of 32-34 kt in no-rain areas. Since that time, an
intense convective burst with cloud tops of -88C developed near the
center between 0400-0500 UTC, which likely helped to spin up the
inner-core circulation a little more. In addition, ship C6VG7
located 90-100 nmi southeast of the center has been reporting winds
as high 38 kt at an elevation of 34 meters, which adjusts to a
10-meter wind of 30-32 kt. Although cloud tops have warmed since
that earlier strong convective burst occurred, the overall
convective cloud pattern has improved since the recon flight
yesterday. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system
as a 30-kt depression, which could be conservative.

The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the
past 12 hours or so, and little motion is expected today and early
Tuesday while the cyclone remains trapped within a blocking ridge
pattern. By 36-48 hours, an east-west oriented ridge is forecast by
the global models to develop across the Greater Antilles and the
Bahamas, which is expected to nudge the depression in a slow
westward direction for the remainder of the forecast period, with
landfall possibly occuring after 72 hours. The system is expected to
move across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific by
120 hours as a remnant low. The NHC official forecast track lies
close to the various consensus model forecasts.

Marginal environmental conditions are only expected to support slow
strengthening for the next 36 hours or so. After that, the moderate
vertical wind shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to
decrease to less than 10 kt while mid-level humidity values increase
to more than 70 percent. This should allow for the depression to
strengthen into a hurricane by 72 hours before landfall occurs. By
96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be inland over Central America
and undergoing rapid weakening due to the interaction with the
mountainous terrain of that region. The intensity forecast closely
follows the consensus intensity model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 11.5N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 11.4N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 11.4N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 11.4N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 11.3N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 11.3N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 11.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0600Z 11.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[HurricaneBelle]

We now have TD 16L.

Yep. Time to change the thread titles! But what's happening here?



(That's how the S2K header looked a few minutes ago. But it's fixed now.)

Those look like left over Matthew forecast points.

[WeatherGuesser]

Crossover? Or is the terrain too high?

[NDG]

Crossover? Or is the terrain too high?

Hurricane Cesar '96 tracked across Nicaragua & reformed into a Cat 4 Hurricane south of MX.
Both GFS & Euro have TD 16 tracking across southern Nicaragua into the EPAC but does not re-strength it.
Hurricanes impacting southern Nica are not as usual as northern Nica.