EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#21 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:38 pm

This system looks pretty good now. Getting more and more organized as time progresses. Well on its way of becoming a potential well developed cyclone. Could be hanging around that region for days to come observing the steering pattern from now into next week to 10 days. This system not only could pose a threat to Central America, but may be a threat to the Cayman Islands or Jamaica also in the next few days. 2016 hurricane season may go out with a bang it looks like unfortunately down there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 4:29 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#23 Postby NDG » Tue Nov 15, 2016 4:48 pm

Beautiful UL conditions over 90L for this time of the year, but typical during La Ninas. If 12z Euro is correct it could add some very nice ACE to the Atlantic Season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#24 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 4:55 pm

Three weeks ago, I scheduled my first day of Thanksgiving vacation for this Friday and planned to be off all of next week. I keep saying that my vacation controls the tropics...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#25 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:15 pm

18Z MU already coming in more defined and stronger than the previous few runs out through 120 hours so far
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#26 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:20 pm

This MU is indicating the possibility for horrific flooding in Panama
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#27 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:25 pm

Yeah a lot of flooding. Look how the MU is rapidly intensifying this as it meanders just north of Panama, 951MB at 168 hours and a 20MB drop in 6 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#28 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:27 pm

Another 20MB drop between hours 168 and 174, heading for Nicaragua. That is 930MB :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#29 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:28 pm

there are two populated Columbian Islands east of Nicaragua. This looks like it is going over Provedencia, which is home to about 5,000. To its south is San Andres which is home to about 65,000
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#30 Postby StormHunter72 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:35 pm

Seems like no threat to CONUS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#31 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:36 pm

looks like a stronger version of Felix this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:37 pm

It would be a worse disaster than Mitch for Nicaragua.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:08 pm

Upper air environment is not a limiting factor at the moment. This is a good setup for development.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#34 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:22 pm

This has most of the earmarks of a potential major hurricane, but where it tracks could also be a huge story for someone, it's been quite a while since I've seen such potential in November and it's been since 1985 since we've seen such potential in mid to late November so this is definitely something to watch especially from the greater Antilles to Central America
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#35 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:It would be a worse disaster than Mitch for Nicaragua.


probably not. Felix was nowhere near as bad for Nicaragua, nor was Joan. The main issue with Mitch was a rainband that remained over Nicaragua for about 4 days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#37 Postby abajan » Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:38 pm

Certainly seems to be taking shape now:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#38 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:20 pm

If the steering stays weak and it sits just offshore though, it COULD be a significant issue, since the energy would be offshore and keep replenishing the bands that'd keep moving in...
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:17 pm

It haa a great structure.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#40 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:24 am

The 0zGFS sends this feature into Costa Rica, while the Euro is heading towards the NW Caribbean so it will be a model battle again

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