EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#261 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:51 pm

Notice the lowest SFMR was 41 kt, so most likely the plane never hit the true center (tough when it is 4 nautical miles and very dynamic).
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#262 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:53 pm

00Z working best track is up to 75 kt.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#263 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:56 pm

Yeah, Otto has looked impressive on satellite imagery for the past 6-8 hours. Probably will see the eye pop out very soon. Rapidly intensifying cyclone. Recon will find winds at least approaching in the 95 kt range or higher later tonight or early Thursday imo. A very impressive tropical cyclone and my prayers to all in the Costa Rica region as Otto makes landfall within the next 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Recon

#264 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:00 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 240058
AF305 0516A OTTO HDOB 42 20161124
004730 1121N 08148W 6962 03108 //// +108 //// 104054 059 048 003 01
004800 1123N 08148W 6977 03096 9977 +109 +096 098055 058 044 004 00
004830 1125N 08148W 6956 03128 0009 +093 //// 096059 059 044 005 01
004900 1126N 08148W 6969 03120 //// +093 //// 099058 060 044 005 01
004930 1128N 08148W 6966 03127 //// +091 //// 098053 056 042 004 01
005000 1130N 08148W 6963 03137 0020 +095 +086 099053 054 040 004 00
005030 1132N 08148W 6963 03139 0028 +088 +087 101051 052 041 004 01
005100 1134N 08149W 6969 03137 0040 +091 //// 100052 052 040 004 05
005130 1135N 08149W 6965 03144 0043 +093 //// 098049 051 040 006 01
005200 1137N 08149W 6966 03147 0048 +092 //// 098049 050 037 005 01
005230 1139N 08149W 6964 03153 0049 +094 +094 100049 051 036 007 00
005300 1141N 08149W 6967 03148 0049 +091 +089 100051 051 037 005 03
005330 1143N 08149W 6966 03152 0044 +094 +084 103050 051 038 004 00
005400 1145N 08149W 6967 03152 0055 +090 +088 104050 052 036 005 00
005430 1146N 08149W 6968 03153 0063 +095 +095 103048 050 034 007 00
005500 1148N 08150W 6969 03152 0088 +091 +091 086041 045 034 010 00
005530 1150N 08150W 6962 03160 0068 +086 +086 075043 045 034 010 00
005600 1152N 08150W 6962 03161 0092 +081 +081 078046 047 031 009 00
005630 1153N 08150W 6969 03158 0084 +077 +077 078049 050 030 006 00
005700 1155N 08150W 6966 03163 0087 +073 //// 080047 050 029 003 01
$$
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#265 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:02 pm

I'd expect this to weaken to 70-75 kts just given how small this is. I'd be surprised if this can sustain itself at this size
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Recon

#266 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:05 pm

000
UZNT13 KNHC 240104
XXAA 74018 99111 70819 04511 99982 27020 02009 00666 ///// /////
92526 24625 01013 85270 26259 34508 88999 77999
31313 09608 80043
51515 10190 70961
61616 AF305 0516A OTTO OB 26
62626 CENTER MBL WND 00510 AEV 33236 DLM WND 18502 981712 WL150 0
1009 080 REL 1114N08185W 004353 SPG 1113N08185W 004746 =
XXBB 74018 99111 70819 04511 00982 27020 11894 23427 22874 24450
33865 26659 44850 26259 55804 22056 66755 23660 77734 20250 88712
14600
21212 00982 02009 11967 35510 22922 01513 33909 02012 44905 00510
55886 35516 66881 35007 77872 00508 88868 34512 99863 36006 11856
35512 22852 36010 33850 34508 44812 18003 55792 16523 66777 17524
77770 19529 88750 17532 99743 18524 11740 21015 22733 29510 33729
26505 44712 18027
31313 09608 80043
51515 10190 70961
61616 AF305 0516A OTTO OB 26
62626 CENTER MBL WND 00510 AEV 33236 DLM WND 18502 981712 WL150 0
1009 080 REL 1114N08185W 004353 SPG 1113N08185W 004746 =
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Recon

#267 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:06 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 240104
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162016
A. 24/00:43:50Z
B. 11 deg 08 min N
081 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2929 m
D. 84 kt
E. 238 deg 3 nm
F. 345 deg 85 kt
G. 238 deg 3 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 11 C / 3054 m
J. 16 C / 3021 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C8
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0516A OTTO OB 25
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 360 / 3 NM 23:40:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 020 / 9 KT
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#268 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:06 pm

maybe NHC is handling this a bit better than I first thought. Had they went with the very high wind speed and then indicated weakening, perhaps some would have felt that the threat was decreasing. However, best track needs to sort this out.

Almsot like a quick eyewall replacement occurred as the eye diameter is up to 7 NM
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#269 Postby NotoSans » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:06 pm

Looks really unstable right now - pressure up to 981 mb per the latest recon pass.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#270 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:17 pm

Alyono wrote:maybe NHC is handling this a bit better than I first thought. Had they went with the very high wind speed and then indicated weakening, perhaps some would have felt that the threat was decreasing. However, best track needs to sort this out.

Almsot like a quick eyewall replacement occurred as the eye diameter is up to 7 NM


It may have weakened a bit with pressure now up just a bit, but there may be just enouugh time possibly for it to recover later to intensify just before landfall. Whether it is enough time for the cyclone to intensify to high end Cat 2 or low end 3? May or Maybe not? Still an impressive cyclone nevertheless!!
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#271 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:14 pm

Alyono wrote:the overshooting cloud top seems to be decreasing in intensity. This may weaken somewhat. Given how small it is with a 4 NM wide eye, this is not exactly a very stable system


So you're saying continued strengthening is not going to be Otto-matic?

(I'll show myself out.)
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#272 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:54 pm

Solid CDO, though recon suggests its inner core is not as well organized as I would like.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#273 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:56 pm

NHC went with 75 kt although with a great deal of uncertainty.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#274 Postby bg1 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:58 pm

I was looking at the latest Rainbow loop, and wow! White patches? Black pixels WITHIN the patches?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#275 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:59 pm

I really think that Otto has been a truly astonishing storm, I was surprised when he reached Hurricane strength the first time, but then he weakened and I was thinking that he had less than a 10% chance of hitting Hurricane strength again, and that if he did it would be in the last advisory before landfall at 65kts. but Otto has really overachieved and has become a 75kt respectable category 1 Hurricane. Who knows what he's capable of now? (I remember on the model runs thread, people were laughing at the idea of a thanksgiving hurricane) :double:
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#276 Postby BZSTORM » Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:16 pm

can someone point me at reasonably reliable model forecast that will give best indication for precipitation - I am hearing Southern Belize could be impacted with heavy rain in next day or 2 and looking at the tail Otto is dragging behind that seems likely. Thanks in advance still learning how to read model data so any input welcome
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#277 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:38 pm

Otto, along with Nicole and Matthew, really are the trinity of storms this season in terms of surprises.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#278 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:47 pm

Sizeable hot tower showing up quite noticeable on rainbow-IR enhancement. Often a portent for strengthening, but Otto doesn't have too much time left over water, luckily.

Image
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#279 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:11 am

Image
latest shortwave i could find,expanding cdo looking looking more symmetrical. On vapour sat the system also looks like there is now a, development of both a poleward and equator outflow channel
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Models

#280 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:57 am

The HWRF now show re-intensification in the EPAC to a strong Category 1 hurricane (around 980 hPa central pressure and 80 kt wind). Probably this would be the first occurence that the EPAC get a hurricane both from ATL and CPAC in one season.
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