EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#301 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:17 am

Does anyone know when the latest major hurricane was ever recorded?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#302 Postby ronjon » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:26 am

Fortunately a very small hurricane core of winds extending only 10 miles out. Still very impressive for late november though. What a year with Hermine and Matthew. I see the seasonal storm forecast was right on the money this year.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#303 Postby NotoSans » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:35 am

12Z working best track up to 95 kt.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#304 Postby NDG » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:38 am

Incredible for this time of the year, too bad the recon already ended its mission this morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#305 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:52 am

weathaguyry wrote:Does anyone know when the latest major hurricane was ever recorded?


I may stand to be corrected , but I believe for the North Atlantic basin, Lenny still is the most intense latest tropical cyclone to have formed from November 13-23, 1999. Lenny reached 933 mb with 155 mph at his peak intensity.

EDIT:: I checked and forgot the 1932 November hurricane which formed and impacted Cuba. That storm is the most intense late season tropical cyclone ever on record in the North Atlantic basin. Lenny is the second strongest ever recorded for so late into the season.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:27 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#306 Postby NotoSans » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:54 am

Hurricane Kate in 1985 holds the record for the latest major hurricane that had formed in a season. It held the record for category 2 hurricane in the past as well, but this has just been broken by Hurricane Otto.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#307 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:58 am

BTW, a quick mention that models are picking up on the potential of possibly developing Paula out in the Central Atlantic within the next ten days .
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#308 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:40 am

northjaxpro wrote:I may stand to be corrected , but I believe for the North Atlantic basin, Lenny still is the most intense latest tropical cyclone to have formed from November 13-23, 1999. Lenny reached 933 mb with 155 mph at his peak intensity.

EDIT:: I checked and forgot the 1932 November hurricane which formed and impacted Cuba. That storm is the most intense late season tropical cyclone ever on record in the North Atlantic basin. Lenny is the second strongest ever recorded for so late into the season.


Somebody mentioned earlier that this is the farthest South though.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#309 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:59 am

:uarrow: Yes you are right. It also will be not only the farthest south tropical cyclone to have ever developed, but soon to be major tropical cyclone to form in that region as well. Also, the eye is now beginining to clear out now on satelitte imagery with Otto.

Otto likely will be Cat 3 at landfall. Incredible to see a major hurricane here on Thanksgiving Day. Prayers to all down in Costa Rica and Nicaragua which will be impacted heavily by Otto.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#310 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:19 am

Saved image through 8:45am EST:

Image

From: http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satelli ... &lon=-82.9
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#311 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:21 am

In terms of southernmost, here is something I wrote earlier for my Facebook page based on the 4am EST Thursday track:

Based on Otto's forecast track and intensity, the hurricane is likely to become the southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America according to NHC best track data in the Atlantic (since 1851) and East Pacific (since 1949). During those periods, no hurricane has ever made landfall in either Panama or Costa Rica. The southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America during that period is Atlantic Hurricane Irene in 1971 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... 0%93Olivia). It made landfall with 75mph winds at a latitude approximately 20 nautical miles north of the latitude Otto is expected to make landfall at later today.

Among tropical cyclones that made landfall in Central America at a latitude south of where Otto is expected to make landfall, during the period the best track database is available for, there has only been one tropical storm landfall in Panama (Martha in 1969, 70mph) and one in Costa Rica (1887, 40mph). Among all tropical cyclones, there was also a landfalling tropical depression in Costa Rica in 1973 (35mph). Among the landfalling tropical cyclones in Nicaragua, the southernmost was Bret in 1993 (45mph). It made landfall near where Otto is forecast to make landfall. There have been no East Pacific landfalling tropical cyclones in Panama or Costa Rica. There was only one East Pacific tropical storm landfall in Nicaragua, Alma in 2008 with 65mph winds. (at a latitude about 75 nautical miles north of the latitude Otto is expected to make landfall at)
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#312 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:25 am

northjaxpro wrote:Otto likely will be Cat 3 at landfall. Incredible to see a major hurricane here on Thanksgiving Day. Prayers to all down in Costa Rica and Nicaragua which will be impacted heavily by Otto.


A lot of Americans there too who may be (or may have planned on) doing the Turkey dinner thing.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#313 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:29 am

My oh my, I wish we had Recon in there right now. What a shame they are not down in there at this time that I can determine. Otto in my opinion is rapidly intensifying. The eye has cleared out as well and this has really become a powerful tropical cyclone. No doubt in my mind Otto will be a Cat 3 by landfall later this evening.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#314 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:57 am

northjaxpro wrote:It also will be not only the farthest south tropical cyclone to have ever developed, but soon to be major tropical cyclone to form in that region as well.


Actually there have been others further south in latitude. Not only in the rest of the Atlantic, but the SW Caribbean as well. Best track since 1851, with Otto's track. (the point at which Otto became a tropical storm or hurricane is not noted with a red dot, but you can tell from the best track data)

Here is the point at which a storm became a tropical storm:

Image

Here is the point at which a storm became a hurricane...

Basin wide:

Image

SW Carib:

Image
That point at the start of Otto is not Otto but a storm in 1906.

You can see that Otto is second southernmost development of a hurricane in the SW Carib.

If you include the point at which something developed into a depression, including all tropical cyclones, there is even more south.

Finally, here is major hurricane development points...

Basin wide:

Image

SW Carib:

Image
So it would be the southernmost in the SW Carib, and tracking to be third southernmost basin wide.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#315 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:00 am

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#316 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:07 am

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#317 Postby BZSTORM » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:09 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
BZSTORM wrote:can someone point me at reasonably reliable model forecast that will give best indication for precipitation - I am hearing Southern Belize could be impacted with heavy rain in next day or 2 and looking at the tail Otto is dragging behind that seems likely. Thanks in advance still learning how to read model data so any input welcome


Here you go: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0


thank you
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#318 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:12 am

Chris_in_Tampa

That was awesome information and graphics. This is why you guys on here are the best!! Always learn new information on this great site!
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#319 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:18 am

There is no doubt the RI is ongoing and I agree Otto is on the way to a CAT 3 if not already there and only about 20 miles offshore. Incredible VIS images.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#320 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:18 am

Will Otto's EPAC ACE be counted towards the ATL or the EPAC?
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