EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#321 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:20 am

Is recon going to be there at all before landfall?? This is crazy, we really could use recon there right now!
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#322 Postby MGC » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:27 am

Otto looks like a Cat-3 to me now. Hope everyone in the warned area has battened down the hatches......MGC
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#323 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:37 am

MGC wrote:Otto looks like a Cat-3 to me now. Hope everyone in the warned area has battened down the hatches......MGC


Advisory says 110MPH with higher possible before landfall.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#324 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:37 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Will Otto's EPAC ACE be counted towards the ATL or the EPAC?

Once Otto crosses over to the Eastern Pacific, continued ACE generation will be counted towards that basin.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#325 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:41 am

What an amazing storm.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#326 Postby shah83 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:41 am

Latest ir image would seem to show lots of rain for the whole of Costa Rica.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#327 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:45 am

Instantaneous Data Ts have been oscillating between 5.0 and 5.5 (depending on the completion of the BD curve black ring). Recent SSMIS scores have also been a little under 100 kt. The 95 kt for 12Z looks pretty much spot on to me, and 100 kt is possible before landfall.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#328 Postby Macrocane » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:45 am

I think just a very few people would have thought what an incredible 2nd half of the season we were going to have.
Matthew, Nicole and Otto have been full of surprises.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#329 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:53 am

No more recon in the storm.

It is amazing how rare this storm is.

Otto is expected to make landfall along the coast with the strongest landfalling winds ever recorded at this southern of a latitude in the southwest Caribbean, according to NHC best track data in the Atlantic (since 1851).

Otto's landfall is expected around the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. For perspective, the strongest tropical cyclone to ever hit Costa Rica, since best track records start in 1851, was 40mph in 1973.

Nicaragua did have a landfalling category four hurricane in 1988, Joan, about 55 nautical miles north of where Otto will likely make landfall shortly. But since 1851, there have been only six major hurricane landfalls in Nicaragua, all to the north of where Otto will likely make landfall.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#330 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:54 am

:uarrow: Yes indeed. Matthew, Nicole and Otto. The dynamic trio of major tropical cyclones in succession to close out the season. Amazing!!

Don't forget models are hinting at Paula possibly forming in the Central Atlantic out past 10 days or so going into December. If that happens, could we see another major? I am not anticipating this, but who knows uh?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#331 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:17 am

Wow, someone ate more turkey than they should have! I would put it at 100 kt right now given its development since Recon left.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#332 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:19 am

Eye looking ragged and convection warming due to land interaction. Probably won't make it to 100 knots before landfall.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#333 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:09 pm

Came on for the first time to look at the cat 1. Saw a cat 2 almost a 3 with a clear eye.

WOW
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#334 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:13 pm

Post analysis, I have no doubt that Otto briefly attained Cat 3 status when it is all said and done imo. It is ashame Recon was not in there on its approach to landfall.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#335 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:19 pm

Probably the last microwave pass prior to landfall:

Image
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#336 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:25 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Post analysis, I have no doubt that Otto briefly attained Cat 3 status when it is all said and done imo. It is ashame Recon was not in there on its approach to landfall.

Agreed. This was a major.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#337 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:35 pm

Looks to be making landfall now near Amerisco in SE Nicaragua.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#338 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:51 pm

Advisory should be due. Maybe waiting for landfall?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#339 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:53 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
100 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE OTTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
NICARAGUAN COAST NEAR THE TOWN OF SAN JUAN DE NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 83.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NW OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the
progress of Otto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), Hurricane Otto made landfall on the coast
of southern Nicaragua near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.9 West,
just to the north of the town of San Juan de Nicaragua. Otto is the
southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America on record.
The hurricane is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a
faster motion toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin
tonight and continue through early Saturday. On this track, the
center of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica through this evening, and then is expected to
reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica
tonight or early Friday.

Otto made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening should begin soon while the
hurricane moves farther inland, and Otto is forecast to become a
tropical storm by tonight. Additional weakening is anticipated
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts
of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and
southern Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to
10 inches over the higher terrain of far western Panama and
southern Costa Rica through Friday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected today
over San Andres and Providencia Islands.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring in the
warning area. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 4 to 6
feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the
hurricane warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the
coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#340 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:54 pm

If they can estimate 110, would it really totally corrupt the system to estimate 111?
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