EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#341 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:31 pm

Southernmost hurricane landfall in Central America on record according to the advisory. For statistical purposes I really hope they bump it to a major in post-analysis, as that wouldn't change the effects any. What an interesting little storm.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#342 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:37 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Southernmost hurricane landfall in Central America on record according to the advisory. For statistical purposes I really hope they bump it to a major in post-analysis, as that wouldn't change the effects any. What an interesting little storm.


I do wonder if that record will hold up, since reanalysis has not taken place on Martha from 1969. That said I took a look at that storm and saw nothing that supports hurricane intensity at landfall (the pressure was 1000mb a few hours before landfall, which I estimate supports 60 kt given the circumstances, possibly generously, and haven't seen any satellite or other images suggesting it strengthened in the last few hours).

That said, I do think Martha's track will add at least 12 hours to it (perhaps a bit more), and the peak intensity of that storm I think will be increased to 85-90 kt based on the 979 pressure measured at such a low latitude.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#343 Postby zeehag » Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:56 pm

this fascinating storm has grabbed my interest and attention.
i donot trust that it will dissipate without mexican landfall.
how are our epac conditions?? chance of regrowth ???
holding my breath as friends sail now in potentially affected pacific.... and uncertain as to that magnet in my pocket..
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#344 Postby zeehag » Thu Nov 24, 2016 2:04 pm

this fascinating storm has grabbed my interest and attention.
i donot trust that it will dissipate without mexican landfall.
how are our epac conditions?? chance of regrowth ???
holding my breath as friends sail now in potentially affected pacific.... and uncertain as to that magnet in my pocket..
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#345 Postby Airboy » Thu Nov 24, 2016 2:05 pm

Hard day:
"Magnitude 7.2 earthquake recorded off the west coast of Nicaragua - USGS"
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#346 Postby Hammy » Thu Nov 24, 2016 3:42 pm

After a quick check, Otto appears to be the latest system to reach Cat 2 on record, as well as the latest Cat 2 landfall on record (surpassing Kate by three days.)
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#347 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2016 3:52 pm

HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

Satellite imagery and radar data from Nicaragua indicate that
Hurricane Otto made landfall at approximately 1800 UTC today along
the extreme southern coast of Nicaragua, just north of the town
of San Juan de Nicaragua. The peak intensity at the time of landfall
was estimated to be at least 95 kt and the central pressure was
estimated at 975 mb. This makes Otto the southernmost landfalling
hurricane in Central America on record.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. Otto is located inland
over extreme southern Nicaragua, just north of the border with Costa
Rica. Easterly steering flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge
located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Mexico is
expected to keep Otto or its remnants moving in a westward to
west-southwestward direction throughout the forecast period. The
global and regional models are in good agreement on this track
scenario, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the
previous forecast track, mainly due to the more northward initial
position of Otto.

Otto is forecast to weaken rapidly while the hurricane moves farther
inland over the rough terrain of southern Nicaragua and northern
Costa Rica tonight. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
by the time it emerges over the eastern North Pacific in about 12 h,
and maintain that intensity during the 24-96 hour period. The ECMWF,
UKMET, and Canadian models continue to weaken Otto throughout the
forecast period, especially after 48 hours when the cyclone is
forecast to interact with a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event.
Erosion of the inner-core convection and wind field is expected from
this negative interaction, resulting in dissipation of Otto by
48-72 h. In contrast, the GFS model keeps the gap-wind event away
from Otto and strengthens the cyclone back to hurricane status by
48 h and beyond. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast will
remain similar to the previous advisory, and more closely follows
the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which is well below all of the
other intensity forecast models.

The primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall,
which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of
mudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from
amateur radio operators in that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.0N 84.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
12H 25/0600Z 10.7N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 25/1800Z 10.2N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 9.8N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 9.5N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 9.4N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 10.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 12.1N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#348 Postby Nimbus » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:14 pm

Bad news for the region, any Tsunami from the earthquake could amplify the storm surge.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#349 Postby Macrocane » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:25 pm

Everything's OK so far. Tsunami warnings have been cancelled. I didn't feel the quake as I was driving but people say it was strong, thankfully far enough to minimize damages.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#350 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:29 pm

Not that this one will, but has any crossover storm ever maintained H intensity, or have they all weakened below that level before emerging?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#351 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:29 pm

One question. What is "a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event." and how that differ from the ones that help TC's?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#352 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:30 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Not that this one will, but has any crossover storm ever maintained H intensity, or have they all weakened below that level before emerging?


AFAIK they've all been below hurricane intensity.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#353 Postby abajan » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:38 pm

Airboy wrote:Hard day:
"Magnitude 7.2 earthquake recorded off the west coast of Nicaragua - USGS"

Hard day indeed. Being such a shallow (less than 7 miles deep) and powerful quake (apparently, it was actually a 7.0 but that's still quite strong), it probably triggered additional landslides in mountainous areas affected by Otto's torrential rains. A most unfortunate concurrence of events. There was also a tsunami warning but that's probably been discontinued for the Nicaragua coast by now, because those waves travel at over 500 mph. (EDIT: Actually, I just read that tsunamis move much slower in shallow waters. But the warning for that coast has indeed been discontinued.)

Image
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#354 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:53 pm

The highest recorded tsunami level observed was 0.2 feet in La Libertad, El Salvador. (As of the final tsunami threat message, unless new information is received or the situation changes.)
http://ptwc.weather.gov/
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Models

#355 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:43 pm

GFS now shows a more conducive environment for Otto once it emerges into the EPAC. Bottoms it out as a strong Cat.2 heading NE towards Mexico.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#356 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 24, 2016 6:06 pm

Martha was a wonder, indeed. I'm always amazed by the satellite photo from Wikipedia, seeing a storm that organized that far southwest. And probably under-rated even still. Makes me wonder if I'll live to see Panama be directly hit again, but in my lifetime.

I'm almost positive that this will be the first and thus far only ATL-EPAC or EPAC-ATL crossover storm ever to keep its name, since we haven't had a storm keep its center of circulation when crossing over since the policy changed to allow storms to retain their original-basin moniker.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#357 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:50 pm

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#358 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:11 pm

Otto has become the first storm in history to keep its name after crossing Central America.

"Since Otto has maintained itself as a tropical cyclone all the way across the land mass of Central America, based on National Weather Service and World Meteorological Organization protocols, it will retain the name Otto when it moves over the eastern Pacific in a few hours. Product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete advisory at 0900 UTC. The intermediate advisory at 0600 UTC will be issued under an Atlantic header. The ATCF identifier will change from AL162016 to EP222016 at 0900 UTC."

It is the first time since the protocol changed, where it used to be even if the storm did survive, it still got a different name.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#359 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:26 pm

Otto is also the strongest storm in history to pass over Costa Rica. It initially made landfall in southern Nicaragua but has since passed across parts of Costa Rica. It looks like it was a hurricane for part of the passage in Costa Rica. Based on the path, and the shape of the border, it passed into Costa Rica as a hurricane briefly, came back into Nicaragua and the first advisory position in Costa Rica was after it was downgraded to a tropical storm. The final best track for the storm will have to sort that part out, but given the highest wind speed for a tropical cyclone over Costa Rica was previously 40mph, Otto beats that for sure.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#360 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:36 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Otto is also the strongest storm in history to pass over Costa Rica. It initially made landfall in southern Nicaragua but has since passed across parts of Costa Rica. It looks like it was a hurricane for part of the passage in Costa Rica. Based on the path, and the shape of the border, it passed into Costa Rica as a hurricane briefly, came back into Nicaragua and the first advisory position in Costa Rica was after it was downgraded to a tropical storm. The final best track for the storm will have to sort that part out, but given the highest wind speed for a tropical cyclone over Costa Rica was previously 40mph, Otto beats that for sure.


I prefer the current protocol, it keeps consistency when storms cross basins. Likewise, it is right for a storm to keep its name when it crosses 180 (going from Hurricane to Typhoon) to ensure an easier message and avoid confusion.
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