EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#361 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I prefer the current protocol, it keeps consistency when storms cross basins. Likewise, it is right for a storm to keep its name when it crosses 180 (going from Hurricane to Typhoon) to ensure an easier message and avoid confusion.

I do like keeping the name if a tropical cyclone survives across to another basin, though it does bring up the interesting question that I have seen others mention. Where is the division for ACE? Other basins have very clear dividing lines with latitude and longitude. I'm not sure how that will be done with passage across Central America. Will it be eyeballed? Any position that looks like it is half way to the coast of a certain basin will be considered with that basin?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#362 Postby chaser1 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:50 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Post analysis, I have no doubt that Otto briefly attained Cat 3 status when it is all said and done imo. It is ashame Recon was not in there on its approach to landfall.


Boy, that totally echoes my thoughts from earlier in the day. For a brief period of time, I believe Otto had higher sustained winds than what the advisory indicated.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#363 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:00 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I prefer the current protocol, it keeps consistency when storms cross basins. Likewise, it is right for a storm to keep its name when it crosses 180 (going from Hurricane to Typhoon) to ensure an easier message and avoid confusion.

I do like keeping the name if a tropical cyclone survives across to another basin, though it does bring up the interesting question that I have seen others mention. Where is the division for ACE? Other basins have very clear dividing lines with latitude and longitude. I'm not sure how that will be done with passage across Central America. Will it be eyeballed? Any position that looks like it is half way to the coast of a certain basin will be considered with that basin?

I suppose the easiest way would be to consider the first position over water again to be the start in that basin. I guess there must already be some method, as they previously would have needed to know when to rename the storm.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#364 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:10 pm

chaser1 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Post analysis, I have no doubt that Otto briefly attained Cat 3 status when it is all said and done imo. It is ashame Recon was not in there on its approach to landfall.


Boy, that totally echoes my thoughts from earlier in the day. For a brief period of time, I believe Otto had higher sustained winds than what the advisory indicated.

It seemed like the satellite presentation of the storm degraded shortly before landfall, so if it made landfall with 110mph winds, it seems like it was probably higher a few hours earlier. There may not be any evidence to upgrade it though. Only recon could have likely measured it well. I don't know what kind of surveys they do, if any, but if they find that winds at landfall were 110mph, they might upgrade it slightly at the best track position immediately prior based on the better appearance shortly before. I really hate 12 hour fixes with recon. I wish there was at least 6 hour fixes everywhere before a landfall.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#365 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:36 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I prefer the current protocol, it keeps consistency when storms cross basins. Likewise, it is right for a storm to keep its name when it crosses 180 (going from Hurricane to Typhoon) to ensure an easier message and avoid confusion.

I do like keeping the name if a tropical cyclone survives across to another basin, though it does bring up the interesting question that I have seen others mention. Where is the division for ACE? Other basins have very clear dividing lines with latitude and longitude. I'm not sure how that will be done with passage across Central America. Will it be eyeballed? Any position that looks like it is half way to the coast of a certain basin will be considered with that basin?


I believe the division for ACE is the moment that the storm enters the Pacific waters (or at least the first synoptic time point). If 0600 UTC is over water, then that is a Pacific point, but if over land then still an Atlantic point.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Models

#366 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:03 am

about face from HWRF and MU. Now calling for weakening
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Models

#367 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 25, 2016 1:40 am

global models had an AWFUL initialization of this at 0Z
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Models

#368 Postby Hammy » Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:49 am

Alyono wrote:global models had an AWFUL initialization of this at 0Z


Resulting from being over land perhaps?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#369 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 25, 2016 3:44 am

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS OTTO
NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TS OTTO


Uhhh... why?
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#370 Postby arlwx » Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:49 am

TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
300 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

Corrected to use Central Standard Time instead of Central Daylight
Time.

...HEAVY RAINS FROM OTTO STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WNW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 86.9 West. Otto is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster motion
toward the west-southwest is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a westward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Otto will continue to move away from the coast of
Central America today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Heavy rains associated with Otto will continue to affect
portions of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua into early
this morning. These rains are expected to move offshore of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific later today.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible early this
morning across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Earlier
heavy rains and the potential additional rainfall will continue to
pose the threat of life-threatening floods and mudslides across
these regions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
for the next few hours. These winds will begin to diminish later
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the
coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult
products from your local weather office. High surf is likely
to occur during the next few hours over portions of Lago Nicaragua.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.


TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
300 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

Corrected for Central Standard Time instead of Central Daylight
Time in product header.

The cloud pattern of Otto is rather ragged this morning after the
circulation moved offshore of Central America. Shortwave infrared
imagery suggests that there may now be some tilt to the circulation,
with the low-level center possibly located south of the mid-level
center. However, this is quite uncertain given the lack of microwave
imagery overnight. Based on this apparent decrease in organization,
the initial intensity is set to 50 kt, a little below the latest
Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The intensity forecast is problematic. Most of the guidance suggests
that Otto will maintain its current intensity for the next 48 hours
or so while the cyclone moves over SSTs of 28-29C but with
continued southeasterly shear of 15-20 kt. Through this time the
NHC intensity forecast is near or a bit below the IVCN intensity
consensus. By day 3, the shear begins to decrease, but the
atmosphere dries out as Otto interacts with outflow from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event. The global models show Otto weakening
late in the period, and that trend is reflected in the official
forecast, which continues to show Otto becoming a remnant low at day
5. However, given the uncertainty in the current structure of Otto
and the interplay between several competing environmental factors
during the forecast period, confidence in the intensity forecast is
lower than usual.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 265/12. I
shifted the initial position a little to the south to account for
the possible tilt in the circulation mentioned above. This resulted
in a southward shift of the track guidance envelope and the NHC
forecast even though the synoptic reasoning has not changed. An
amplifying mid-level ridge will steer Otto south of due west at
around 15 kt for the next 48 hours. Then, as the ridge weakens late
in the period, a slowing forward speed and gradual poleward turn are
expected. The new NHC track is close to the latest multi-model
consensus, but lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 10.5N 86.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 10.1N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 9.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 9.2N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 9.0N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 9.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 10.5N 106.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 12.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#371 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:02 am

Nicaragua radar from 5:12Z on November 24th through 8:42Z on November 25th.
http://imgur.com/bQe4MYA

Version with times:
http://imgur.com/nM7MPeS
Radar from 5:12Z on November 24th through 15:18Z on November 25th.
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#372 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:36 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I believe the division for ACE is the moment that the storm enters the Pacific waters (or at least the first synoptic time point). If 0600 UTC is over water, then that is a Pacific point, but if over land then still an Atlantic point.

I just happened to run across someone asking that on Twitter with Eric Blake confirming that.



https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/801984382244388864
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#373 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:40 am

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
900 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

Microwave and conventional satellite imagery shows that Otto's
cloud pattern is a little better organized with a mid-level eye and
very deep convection surrounding the center. Estimates from
TAFB and SAB are 3.5 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the
initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The intensity forecast continues
to be uncertain. While global models show a gradual decay of the
cyclone, other intensity guidance show a steady state or even
slight intensification. The shear is a little bit strong for
significant intensification primarily during the next 48 to 72
hours. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease, but the
environment is forecast to dry out. The NHC forecast follows
in general the intensity consensus during the first few days, and
then calls for a weakening trend by the end of the forecast period
following the solution of the global models and the previous NHC
forecast.

Otto is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 14 kt within the
easterly flow associated with a strong mid-level high over Mexico.
This steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next 2 to 3
days, so a general west or even west-southwest track is anticipated.
By the end of the forecast period, Otto should be located on the
southwestern edge of the high and should then begin to turn to the
northwest and north. In contrast with the intensity guidance, the
track models are in good agreement, increasing the confidence in
the track forecast. The NHC forecast follows very closely the
multimodel consensus and is basically in the middle of the tight
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 10.3N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 10.0N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 9.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 9.3N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 9.2N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 9.7N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 11.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 13.0N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Hurricane - Discussion

#374 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:29 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Not that this one will, but has any crossover storm ever maintained H intensity, or have they all weakened below that level before emerging?


AFAIK they've all been below hurricane intensity.



I'm not exactly where it changed, but it seems like it got most of the way across as an H. I was really hoping it would just to make the record. I'm kind of tired of missing records by THAT much in the last couple of years.
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Re: ATL: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#375 Postby NDG » Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:36 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Nicaragua radar from 5:12Z on November 24th through 8:42Z on November 25th.
http://imgur.com/a/nX0jc


Wow, The eye reorganized as soon it tracked over the southern part of Lake Nicaragua, we don't see this event too often over this area.
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#376 Postby Macrocane » Fri Nov 25, 2016 11:08 am

Now both incredible Atlantic season and incredible East Pacific season bonded by Otto.
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#377 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:40 pm

I forgot to check yesterday and missed a historic hurricane. Otto was doing the fist prior to landfall which means somebody got a good hit. Some jungle got shaken up yesterday.


:(
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#378 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 25, 2016 1:54 pm

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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#379 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 25, 2016 7:26 pm

WTPZ32 KNHC 252036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
300 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

...OTTO HEADING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 89.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 89.3 West. Otto is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general motion toward
the west or west-southwest is expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#380 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 25, 2016 7:27 pm

Poor li'l Otto, all but forgotten about since he crossed over to the other side.
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