EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10024
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#41 Postby Sanibel » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:04 am

Needs to refire. Could be a gimme.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117043
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:51 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad low pressure
system. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
slow development of this disturbance during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over
the weekend while the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#43 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 16, 2016 7:35 am

6Z MU for no apparent reason basically drops it entirely.

Uccellini, fix your model! It should not be going from a cat 5 to a broad low in less than a day
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7416
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#44 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 16, 2016 7:38 am

It looks like convection is just now beginning to fire up on satellite imagery early this morning. A very nice anticyclone is over the system right now with very good outflow. Environment looks quite conducive for development at this time. Once convection regenerates, it will be just a matter of time of seeing Otto being born in the SW Caribbean.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18952
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#45 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:09 am

I see a vortex beneath the convection around 14N/79W, which is over 100 miles north of where the models initialized it. If that vortex does become the main center, then the risk to Haiti and the DR may be increasing, and a track to the NE would be more likely than getting trapped in the Caribbean next week. Something to watch for, anyway. My money is still on Nicaragua/Honduras with landfall next Wed-Thu.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117043
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: OTTO - Recon

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:37 am

Tentative first mission set for Friday November 18 in the afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST WED 16 NOVEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z NOVEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-174

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/2000Z NEAR 11.5N 81.5W
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117043
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:33 am

12z GFS drops development.Only copious rains for Central America.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117043
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:59 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#49 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:28 pm

Canadian has largely dropped this as well
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117043
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#50 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:44 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad low pressure area. The system is currently
disorganized, and recent satellite data indicate that the associated
winds are light. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117043
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2016 1:51 pm

12z ECMWF has a Nicaragua landfall.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#52 Postby blp » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:02 pm

Looks like the GFS has the right idea again over the Euro buried into Nicaragua.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1174
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#53 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:16 pm

Looks like a very complex genesis coming up (at least compared to Matthew). Beta in 2005 comes to mind. The models will likely continue to be inconsistent with genesis scenarios over the next few days.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

hcane27
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 203
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 7:33 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#54 Postby hcane27 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:05 pm

Reminds me of the Shakesperean play ..... "Much Ado About Nothing" :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#55 Postby blp » Wed Nov 16, 2016 4:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:I see a vortex beneath the convection around 14N/79W, which is over 100 miles north of where the models initialized it. If that vortex does become the main center, then the risk to Haiti and the DR may be increasing, and a track to the NE would be more likely than getting trapped in the Caribbean next week. Something to watch for, anyway. My money is still on Nicaragua/Honduras with landfall next Wed-Thu.


The models have it starting out further north initially followed by a push SW then back East. So it will be like a pinball for a couple of days before it fully consolidates. I keep thinking that if it ramps up quicker then progged it could get further North and head NE with the trough otherwise with a strong ridge forecasted later in the period it has no where to go but to get stuck and head inland over Nicaragua.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6432
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#56 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:50 pm

Look at Marco 1996 for a track and intensity as a possibility and oddly enough the same time of year 20 years ago
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#57 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:17 pm

yesterday, it seemed like development was certain.

Today, the chances have most certainly dropped. System may end up too far SW to develop. I'd say a 65 percent chance of development now, or a 2 in 3 chance. Down from 90 percent yesterday
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#58 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:41 pm

Has monsoonal low look about it, those types of systems can sometimes take a bit of time to get going. If they do.
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#59 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:37 am

0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3441
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#60 Postby abajan » Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:07 am

Formation Chances Unchanged

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad low pressure area. This system has changed
little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during
the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests