WPAC: Tokage - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#21 Postby NotoSans » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:52 pm

:uarrow: ASCAT shows a closed circulation with several reliable 25 to 30-knot wind barbs. I expect an upgrade at 06Z.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:52 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 240330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 128.1E TO 12.1N 119.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
126.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 128.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 460
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 240043Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. A 240045Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT WITH NUMEROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION
WILL BECOME A HINDRANCE AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED WITH DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250330Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#23 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:41 am

A deluuuuuge of rain is about to pour in Cebu
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#24 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:44 am

Samar and Leyte is taking the full brunt of 98w's rain filled intense convection
Up next: Masbate, Cebu, Negros,Panay.
Image
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#25 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:30 am

JTWC expects a 35-kt landfall here in Cebu in the next few hours.

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240321ZNOV2016//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.1N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.0N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.0N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.3N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.0N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 125.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240330). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#26 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 24, 2016 3:36 pm

29W TWENTYNINE 161124 1800 11.2N 123.6E WPAC 35 999
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#27 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:31 pm

29W seems to be enjoying its trek across the Philippines.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:49 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS QUICKLY TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, PARTICULARLY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL BANDING,
HOWEVER, A RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS STILL ILL-DEFINED AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. A 241651Z NPP 165GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX AND THE MOSAIC RADAR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ROUNDED UP TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SLIGHLY
IMPROVED BANDING AND STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE NPP IMAGE. OVERALL,
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE HIGH FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED.
TS 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER FORWARD SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DUE TO FASTER THAN EXPECTED MOTION.
B. TS 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
24. TS 29W SHOULD SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR
MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE INNER SEAS AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TS
29W WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL COLD SURGE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND JENS, WHICH SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE IN THE
UNFAVORABLE SURGE ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE LLCC LIKELY TO TURN BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL SURGE FLOW. THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURGE
EVENT AFTER TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:52 pm

Image

It looks very organized.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#30 Postby NotoSans » Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:05 pm

Upgraded to TS Tokage by the JMA.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#31 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:23 am

Looks like it would miss the mountainous island of Mindoro to the south. IMO, Tokage has a chance to become a typhoon (1min)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:36 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TOKAGE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, TS 29W SHOULD SLOW AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE. AT
THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE EVENT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURGE
EVENT AFTER TAU 48.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:38 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:39 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 252120

A. TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)

B. 25/2100Z

C. 12.86N

D. 119.18E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:39 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2016 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 12:50:51 N Lon : 119:22:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 994.1mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -71.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.2 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: Tokage - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:10 pm

This "tropical storm" has an eye that is starting to clear out on visible imagery. May be a 80-85kt typhoon now.
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Re: WPAC: Tokage - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:This "tropical storm" has an eye that is starting to clear out on visible imagery. May be a 80-85kt typhoon now.


Yup
Image
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Re: WPAC: Tokage - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 26, 2016 4:46 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
SHALLOW, LESS CURVED, BUT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS INDICATION OF SHEARING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE DEGRADED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO THE STRONG WIND SURGE AT
THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS TOKAGE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, AS IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND WEAK, IT
WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY MAKE A U-TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE. TS 29W WILL SLOWLY
THEN RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO THE STRONG VWS, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48,
POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNIFIED IN THE OVERALL
TRACK SOLUTION WITH TWO OUTLIERS ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE
- COTC AND JENS. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tokage - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:40 am

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF COLD DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING ELONGATED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A 270446Z GMI
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 270207Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE LLCC. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER SCATTEROMETRY DATA IN THE
REGION SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE TAIWAN
STRAIT BRINGING HIGH WINDS INTO AREAS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AN
UPPER-LEVER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST IS CREATING
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST COMPETES WITH HIGH VELOCITY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AS THE NORTHEASTERN SURGE
DEVELOPS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXERTS LESS INFLUENCE OVER THE
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE DOMINANT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. TS TOKAGE
IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tokage - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:28 am

Tokage may be in the process of decoupling now.
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