BOB: NADA - Post-Tropical

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Digital-TC-Chaser

BOB: NADA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:38 pm

A large area of unsettled weather may develop across the southern Bay of Bengal and could produce multiple tropical cyclones this week.
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Floater http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Atm
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: BOB:91B INVEST

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:53 am

91B INVEST 161129 0600 6.1N 88.1E IO 30 1003
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DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.11.2016
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 29.11.2016 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 29.11.2016.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:-
YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS.AND IS
WELL MARKED. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24
HRS. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE
OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN LATITUDE 2.30N TO 9.00N
LONGITUDE 83.50 E TO 90.30
E THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLOUD HAS DEEPENED DURING
PAST 24 HOURS AND IS GETTING ORGANISED. CONVECTION LIES TO WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY IS T 1.0 AND THE VORTEX
LAY CENTRED NEAR 5.80N /88.70
E. THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 15-
20 KNOTS AND ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS
MODERATE HIGH HIGH
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29˚C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS SRI
LANKA AND NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST BECOMING 28˚C. OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT
80-100 KJ/CM2
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND IT DECREASES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR SRI LANKA AND NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST BECOMING LESS THAN 50
KJ/CM2
.OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5 SECOND-1
IN THE SOUTHWEST
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. . THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUED TO BE AROUND 30X10-5
SECOND-1 IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR OF WML. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS
ABOUT 100-120X10-6 SECOND-1
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE WML REGION AND
INCREASES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BECOMING MORE THAN 20 KNOTS. THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE ABOUT 1. IT WILL
CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 AND 2 FOR NEXT 3-4 DAYS WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE. PHASE 3
AND 2 ARE FAVOURABLE FOR GENESIS OF DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL. ALL THE
ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR GENESIS OF DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 24 HRS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 14
0N AND HENCE THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION OF WML IN MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. IT WOULD STEER THE WML WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.
MAJORITY OF MODELS ALSO SUGGEST GENESIS OF DEPRESSION BY 29TH AND WESTNORTHWESTWARDS
MOVEMENT, CROSSING NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST ON 02ND DECEMBER
MORNING NEAR LATITUDE 120N. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODEL OF IMD ALSO SUGGESTS
GENESIS OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, THE WML IS
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND MOVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST
DURING NEXT 72 HOURS.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
ARABIAN SEA:-
SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLO
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Re: BOB:91B INVEST

#3 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:01 am

ASCAT and visible satellite loops indicate it's a tropical depression now. Should move inland south of Chennai Thursday night as about a 50kt TC.
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Re: BOB:91B INVEST

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:32 pm

Image
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: BOB: Depression

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:11 pm

looks to be developing.

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India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences)
BULLETIN NO.: 02 (BOB 05/2016)
TIME OF ISSUE: 0020 HOURS IST
DATED: 30.11.2016
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23793144)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
SECRETARY, DST (FAX NO. 26863847/-2418)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23385843)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (25843825)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 26105912)
DIRECTOR OF PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF TAMILNADU (FAX NO.044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF PUDUCHERRY (FAX NO.0413-2337575)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF ANDHRA PRADESH (FAX NO. 040-23453700 )
Sub: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal.
Pre-Cyclone Watch for north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts : Yellow Message
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwesterwards for the past six
hours with a speed about 10 kmph and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of today, the 29 th November, 2016
near Latitude 6.8oN and Longitude 87.0oE, about 1010 km east-southeast of Chennai, 970 km east-
southeast of Puducherry and 660 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka). The system is very
likely to continue to move west-northwestward, and intensify into a deep depression during next 24
hrs and into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hrs. It is very likely to cross north Tamil Nadu coast
between Vedaranniyam and Chennai by 2 nd December morning
Warning:
(i)
Heavy Rainfall Warning: Light to moderate rainfall at many places is very likely to commence
over coastal Tamil Nadu from 30 th November evening. The intensity of rainfall would increase
with rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over coastal Tamil
Nadu and Puducherry and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over interior Tamil Nadu on 1 st
and 2 nd December.
Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is very likely over Kerala on
2 nd and 3 rd December 2016.
(ii)
Wind warning: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would
commence to prevail along & off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from 1 st December
morning.
(iii)
Sea condition: Sea condition would be rough to very rough along & off Tamil Nadu and
Puducherry coasts from 1 st December onward.
(iv)
Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu
and Puducherry coasts from 30 th evening onwards. Those at sea are advised to return to the
coast.
th
Next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of 30 November 2016.
(Shivinder Singh)
Scientist-B
RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: DFDD, Pune/ACWC Kolkata /ACWC Chennai/CWC Vishakhapatnam/CWC Bhubaneswar/MC
Hyderabad.
Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 124.4, Very heavy rain: 124.5 – 200.4, Extremely heavy rain: 200.5 or more .Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 124.4, Very heavy rain: 124.5 – 200.4, Extremely heavy rain: 200.5 or more .



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GFS/EC both are modelling another follow up system for the BOB.
http://wxmaps.org/animations.php

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 2912&fh=24
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Re: BOB: Tropical Cyclone 04B

#6 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:40 am

Named "Nada" by IMD
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Re: BOB: Tropical Cyclone Nada

#7 Postby ThetaE » Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:39 am

"Nada" seems to be a rather appropriate name for this storm at the moment; just a big ol' naked swirl.

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Re: BOB: Tropical Cyclone Nada

#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:20 pm

They named the storm Nada. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: BOB: Tropical Cyclone Nada

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:37 pm

Has not been a significant cyclone i can recall in the BOB since Hudhud in 2014,the next system the models are developing,
may be brutal. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=650
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