Southern India - Vardah - Tropical Depression

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wyq614
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Southern India - Vardah - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby wyq614 » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:42 am

Initiated at 3.0N, 103.6E

So here comes the brutal BOB cyclone-to-be.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:25 am

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Looks likely big threat flooding potential down the road 3.2 pw, atm gfs landfalling @70kts/10min

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Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Fri Dec 02, 2016 10:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:42 pm

GFS has a monster 920's mb storm landfall...
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#4 Postby gatorcane » Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:45 pm

Looks like the GFS gets this down to 915MB on the 18Z run
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 02, 2016 10:52 pm

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EC run looking a better outcome for for India atm, still way early we don't even have a TD yet. GFS always over hypes mb usually, taking no notice myself.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:37 am

Guidance has been alluding to this one for going on a week now. I'd say chances are good that we could end up seeing an significant cyclone.

Image
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#7 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:13 am

:uarrow:

Are those thin brownish particles (east of Sri Lanka) coming from India dust?
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:38 am

mrbagyo wrote::uarrow:

Are those thin brownish particles (east of Sri Lanka) coming from India dust?


Nasa dust model
http://weather.graphics/nasa/nasa_global_00.php


Image
Bom's model not overly excited atm.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:48 pm

latest runs on the EC/GFS mid 980's mb land-falling by both models, a v/strong cyclone lets hope those runs hold serve .And not a destructive catastrophic 940mb monster, some of the wpac crew wanna see.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#10 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:16 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:latest runs on the EC/GFS mid 980's mb land-falling by both models, a v/strong cyclone lets hope those runs hold serve .And not a destructive catastrophic 940mb monster, some of the wpac crew wanna see.


The GFS has 936mb immediately antecedent to landfall (after weakening from 922 mb).
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#11 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:53 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:latest runs on the EC/GFS mid 980's mb land-falling by both models, a v/strong cyclone lets hope those runs hold serve .And not a destructive catastrophic 940mb monster, some of the wpac crew wanna see.


The GFS has 936mb immediately antecedent to landfall (after weakening from 922 mb).


Image

Image

looking at models at the time of posting is what i seen.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#12 Postby gatorcane » Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:26 pm

huge moisture envelope with broad cyclonic rotation, saved loop:

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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#13 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:48 pm

Putting aside intensity looks a v/large monsoonal low,.

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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#14 Postby Alyono » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:45 pm

have to use surface pressure to see MU intensity, not MSLP
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#15 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:53 am

GFS 985 mslp is the equivalent of 90kts 10/min, same as 940 mb surface chart? <940 MSLP is a catastrophic cane in the H Andrew bracket.
Where the confusion LIES. You guys know best leaves to you.
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Re: Gulf of Thailand - Invest 99W

#16 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:34 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:GFS 985 mslp is the equivalent of 90kts 10/min, same as 940 mb surface chart? <940 MSLP is a catastrophic cane in the H Andrew bracket.
Where the confusion LIES. You guys know best leaves to you.


Yeah. The mu plots with mslp have the actual wind but only surface pressure shows the actual pressure
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:48 am

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Re: Bay of Bengal - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:37 am

Good call, it certainly looks like one.

Image
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:59 am

TCFA from JTWC.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING STEADILY BECOMING
CLEARER AND MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:24 am

Appears tilted to the south and mostly all surface and mid-level,upper not appearing well establish atm.
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Access has a cyclone developing not strong then weakens it out.
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