Southern India - Vardah - Tropical Depression

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Alyono
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#41 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:31 pm

Microwave is showing this may be intensifying.

If you are in the path in India, know this. The IMD is wrong in their forecast that this will rapidly weaken to a cyclonic storm. It may remain a very severe cyclonic storm until it makes landfall
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby shah83 » Sun Dec 11, 2016 7:54 pm

This has been interesting in that it has been consistently forcasted to weaken, but has refused to do so.

It also doesn't really feel like a 70kt storm...
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:36 pm

shah83 wrote:This has been interesting in that it has been consistently forcasted to weaken, but has refused to do so.

It also doesn't really feel like a 70kt storm...


its really a 75-85 kt storm
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:05 am

Image
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:52 am

eye visible on IR

Found a favorable Kelvin wave.

May undergo RI before landfall
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:54 am

Image

Have been following this daily, on vapour sat the Siberian ridge has shifted over the past few days and is in the process of linking with the WPac ridge. Thus the dry air shifted out with the ridge.
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:18 am

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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:51 pm

EC takes this as a hurricane strength system into Yemen/Oman
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Re: Bay of Bengal - Vardah - Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:18 pm

Alyono wrote:EC takes this as a hurricane strength system into Yemen/Oman


Image Yes very active period strong westerlies along the EQ atm.Notice on plot monsoon ramps up in shem also.
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Re: Southern India - Vardah - Post Tropical

#50 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 18, 2016 7:16 am

Convection is refiring near the center, looking good now, heading to somalia:

Image

Permanent link: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/ceb ... 15min.html
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