WPAC: INVEST 91W

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WPAC: INVEST 91W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 10, 2016 4:19 am

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91W INVEST 161210 0600 6.2N 111.0E WPAC 15 1006

In the South China Sea.

EURO and GFS doesn't do much with it before moving it inland over Vietnam.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:46 am

91W INVEST 161211 0600 7.7N 111.2E WPAC 15 1005
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:47 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:27 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
110.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 109.9E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, YET ILL-DEFINED, LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST, EVIDENT ON A 120253Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
A 112336Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS ERRATIC CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONDUCIVE SST (28C).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 20 KNOTS WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:28 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 122134
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 12/2030Z

C. 10.8N

D. 109.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/S1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY LOOSELY
DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH LLCC GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM SMALL COLD
OVERCAST. MET=0.5. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE DT IS NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1956Z 10.9N 109.7E AMSR2


...LEE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:25 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 109.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY
135 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. A 122331Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONDUCIVE SST (28C).
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY AND DO NOT DEPICT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:26 am

TXPQ25 KNES 130258
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 13/0230Z

C. 11.0N

D. 109.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH LLCC GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL COLD
OVERCAST. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:18 pm

91W INVEST 161213 1200 11.5N 108.2E WPAC 15 1007
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