SPAC: Tropical Depression 04F (99P)

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SPAC: Tropical Depression 04F (99P)

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:16 am

An invest has been tagged just to the NW of Fiji. 99P doesn't look like it'll develop into a major system, but it does look to me to have a decent shot at becoming a named system before shooting off to the southeast along and eventually out of the SPCZ.

Image

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 99P

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:19 am

JTWC has tagged 99P with a "Low."

Image

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZDEC2016//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
[...]
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4S 173.8E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTHWEST OF FIJI. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130316Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH HIGHER WINDS (20-25 KT) TO THE
SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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Re: SPAC: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:38 pm

Official




SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHT FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 9AM ON WEDNESDAY, 14TH DECEMBER 2016.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.

SITUATION:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7 SOUTH LATITUDE AND 176.0 EAST LONGITUDE OR ABOUT 170KM SOUTHWEST OF ROTUMA OR ABOUT 470 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI AT 7AM TODAY.
POSITION POOR. IT IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS AFFECTS THE COUNTRY. TD04F IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM LATER THURSDAY. AT THIS STAGE IT HAS MODERATE(20-50%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER FIJI WATERS.

FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI:
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST PLACES.

LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDDAY TODAY OR EARLIER.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC: Invest 99P

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:40 pm

Image
GFS has a TS over Fiji on Saturday.
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Re: SPAC: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F FIJI -AOR

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:23 pm

Tittle is SPAC: Invest 99P? This is a RSMC not JTWC


SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TEN FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 3PM ON WEDNESDAY, 14TH DECEMBER 2016.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.

SITUATION:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5 SOUTH AND 175.3 EAST OR ABOUT 290KM SOUTHWEST OF ROTUMA OR ABOUT 430 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI AT 1PM TODAY.
POSITION POOR. IT IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING. ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACTIVE RAIN BANDS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COUNTRY. TD04F IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM TOMORROW. AT THIS STAGE IT HAS MODERATE(20-50%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER FIJI WATERS.

FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI:
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST PLACES.

LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 6PM TODAY OR EARLIER.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 99P

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:28 am

GFS seems more bullish in latest run.

Has a strengthening landfalling cyclone over Nadi.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC:TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:15 am

Image


SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWELVE FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 9PM ON WEDNESDAY, 14TH DECEMBER 2016.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.

SITUATION:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5 SOUTH AND 175.5 EAST OR ABOUT 280KM SOUTHWEST OF ROTUMA OR ABOUT 415 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF NADI AT 7PM TODAY. POSITION POOR. IT IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING.
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACTIVE RAIN BANDS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COUNTRY. TD04F IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
TD04F HAS MODERATE CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI:
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST PLACES.

LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR EARLIER.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/TD04F.pdf

Image


FYI

The TCWC at Nadi, Fiji, is the RSMC for the South Pacific basin
but the meteorological service of New Zealand (Wellington) issues
warnings for systems that move (or very rarely form) south of latitude
25S. The Fiji TCWC employs a 1-minute to 10-minute MSW conversion
factor of 0.90 when adjusting the Dvorak scale.

A tropical system can have associated gales and still be classified
as a tropical depression if the gales are well-removed from the center.
In such cases the gales are usually found in only one or two quadrants.
Prior to 2000, the WMO Region V definition of a tropical cyclone required
that gales surround the center, but the definition was changed to allow
classification as a tropical cyclone if gales were present near the
center and likely to persist, even if in only one quadrant.
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Re: SPAC: Disturbance 04F/Invest 99P

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:02 am

JTWC has given 99P a bump up to medium.

Image

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZDEC2016//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
109.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 173.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 175.8E, APPROXIMATELY
230 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140305Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW. A
132158Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER
WINDS (20-25 KT) WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE PRIMARILY TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS
AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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Re: SPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:03 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER SIXTEEN FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 9AM ON THURSDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2016.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.

SITUATION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 SOUTH AND 174.8 EAST OR ABOUT 410KM NORTHWEST OF YASAWA -I-RARA OR ABOUT 480KM NORTHWEST
OF NADI AT 7AM THIS MORNING. POSITION POOR. IT IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING.
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACTIVE RAIN BANDS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COUNTRY.IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FIJI GROUP IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. TD04F HAS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI:
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST PLACES.

LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDDAY TODAY OR EARLIER.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20014.txt
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