SIO: Tropical Depression Yvette

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TheAustinMan
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SIO: Tropical Depression Yvette

#1 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:52 pm

Fairly organized low developing off of Western Australia. I'm a bit surprised to see no TCFA on this one. The GFS and Euro keep this one week and absorbed by the developing 90S to its east, but the CMC makes 91S the dominant cyclone en route to an eventual Western Australia landfall.

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#2 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:04 am

BoM has it a depression now (they call them tropical lows). ASCAT last evening (near the time of the image above) indicated it may have 35kt winds SE of the center, so it is likely a TC now.

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#3 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:52 pm

Australia is saying that the winds have reached cyclone intensity at 35 kts.

However, they do NOT name it until 35 kt winds cover more than 50% of the circulation. Thus, if it had 60 kt winds on one half and 30 on the other, it would not be named by Australia

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW27600.txt
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:13 pm

Any low with 60kts would be named by the BOM as a cat 2/3 aussie unless the system was subtropical.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#5 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:30 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Any low with 60kts would be named by the BOM as a cat 2/3 aussie unless the system was subtropical.


Are you sure about that? Even if it does not meet the 50% gale coverage threshold?

Because right now, every other warning agency around the world would have named this since it has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 kts
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#6 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:07 am

Massive blob of extremely intense super cold convection exploding near the center (actually a little bit to the west)

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#7 Postby kala » Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:06 pm

Alyono wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Any low with 60kts would be named by the BOM as a cat 2/3 aussie unless the system was subtropical.


Are you sure about that? Even if it does not meet the 50% gale coverage threshold?

Because right now, every other warning agency around the world would have named this since it has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 kts


I thought every agency in the southern hemisphere followed this rule? Though considering I haven't really noticed it with Reunion, they probably don't.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:41 pm

There has been some shear but its hard to ignore most other agencys were @ a moderate TS,
but the BOM wont budge.

Image

@1900hurricane interested in what you also think over the past 12hours with this system.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:54 pm

ASCAT from several hours ago shows an area of 35 kt winds with TL 1/02S. JTWC is sitting at 35 kt accordingly, but BOM has yet to upgrade due to the tropical storm force winds failing to wrap far enough around the center. Based on the rules each agency follows, both BOM and JTWC seem to have a good handle on the system. The ASCAT pass was some while ago, so it is possible that the system has strengthened some in the time since. Using the Dvorak Technique, I'm getting a 2.5-3.0, depending on whether a curved band or shear matrix is used, which would be good for somewhere between 35-45 kt.

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The system is encountering some easterly shear at the moment, largely due to the outflow from the system to the east enhancing the typical upper level monsoon easterlies. This is helping to suppress system intensification at the moment, but as TL 1/02S begins to move to the south away from the easterlies and as the system to the east dissipates over land, this should open a window for intensification over the coming days.

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#10 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:47 pm

Thankyou 1900hurricane another excellent analysis as always from you.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#11 Postby shah83 » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:56 pm

You guys haven't been interested in the models that show high rainfall on Australia?
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#12 Postby Alyono » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:01 am

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#13 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:33 am

Image
this looks good.enough
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1

#14 Postby kala » Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:59 am

BoM has named it Yvette

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Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone Yvette

#15 Postby Darvince » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:39 pm

Image

Is this thing going to break records for coldest cloud tops ever observed? :double:
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Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone Yvette

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:47 pm

Obvious shear pattern is obvious.
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