WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
A 210032Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE AND THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CURRENTLY TD 30W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING
RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 30W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON
AROUND TAU 120 AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER, MESOSCALE MODELS COAMPS-TC AND HWRF SHOW A
TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD FROM THE GROUPING POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAKENING
IN THE STEERING RIDGE. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
TRACK. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 210901

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (SW OF CHUUK)

B. 21/0830Z

C. 6.52N

D. 141.82E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0408Z 6.40N 141.87E ATMS
21/0513Z 6.58N 141.85E MMHS


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 210929 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP302016
700 PM CHST WED DEC 21 2016

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W FORMED SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND AND NGULU
IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CHST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.9N 141.1E

ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF FAIS
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CHST...0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 141.1 DEGREES EAST. 30W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE 30W PASSING
BETWEEN NGULU AND YAP NEAR NOON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...AND 30W IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NEAR 1100 PM THEN FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY BY 200 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 210919
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...RESENT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
715 PM CHST WED DEC 21 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU AND YAP IN YAP
STATE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 600 PM CHST..0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
141.1 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF FAIS
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W HAS FORMED SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TD 30W IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN YAP
AND NGULU NEAR NOON ON THURSDAY. 30W COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER THIS EVENING.

...YAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN NGULU AND YAP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

....WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BY MID
MORNING...INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FALLING TO
25 TO 35 MPH BY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 11 FEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET THURSDAY MORNING...PEAKING BETWEEN 13 AND
16 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EVENING...
BUT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 1 TO 2 FEET OF
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

...NGULU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN NGULU AND YAP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

....WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING...INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 AND
45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL TURN WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FALLING TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY
EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11
AND 13 FEET THURSDAY MORNING...PEAKING BETWEEN 13 AND 16 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EVENING...BUT WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

955mb and +105 knots from HWRF.

[Cunxi Huang]

1626 Nock-ten

WTPQ20 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1626 NOCK-TEN (1626) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 07.6N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 10.5N 134.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 231800UTC 12.2N 129.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 241800UTC 13.3N 125.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[euro6208]

Peak intensity upped to a Cat 3.

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 211229Z ASCAT PASS. A 211941Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CORE IN A 211545Z
AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS NOCK-TEN IS
LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.
B. TS 30W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, PRIOR TO REACHING THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL; HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, THE CYCLONE COULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, MODELS DEPICT A COLD SURGE THAT WILL INCREASE THE VWS AND
ADVECT COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. TS 30W WILL TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
DUE TO COMPETING FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. DUE TO THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

This is almost certain to go south of Manila based upon the latest ensemble forecasts

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 212130
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (30W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP302016
800 AM CHST THU DEC 22 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND AND NGULU
IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 0700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 139.7E

ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF ULITHI
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 139.7 DEGREES EAST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE NOCK-
TEN ON A PASSAGE BETWEEN NGULU AND YAP NEAR NOON TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...AND NOCK-TEN IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TYPHOON IN A FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NEAR 1100 AM THIS MORNING THEN FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED
ADVISORY BY 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO

[1900hurricane]

Nock-ten is looking fairly decent today.

[mrbagyo]

This is almost certain to go south of Manila based upon the latest ensemble forecasts

Which would put Manila in the RFQ.
Question is how much further south. worst case scenario is less than >15 kms south.
I remember Durian 2006 was also forecast to make a direct hit at the capital however it stayed well south of the capital - crossed the waters between the province of Batangas and the Island of Mindoro.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The ridge is building up

[Alyono]

This is almost certain to go south of Manila based upon the latest ensemble forecasts

Which would put Manila in the RFQ.
Question is how much further south. worst case scenario is less than >15 kms south.
I remember Durian 2006 was also forecast to make a direct hit at the capital however it stayed well south of the capital - crossed the waters between the province of Batangas and the Island of Mindoro.

Manila may even be outside of the tropical storm force winds

[dexterlabio]

^more ensemble members now shows a northward/recurve scenario though, so I wonder if we're gonna see a last minute save here.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 220706
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (30W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP302016
500 PM CHST THU DEC 22 2016

...TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN JUST MOVED PAST YAP...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND AND
NGULU IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS
OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 137.9E

ABOUT 15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 137.9 DEGREES EAST. NOCK-TEN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16
MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NOTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL
TAKE NOCK-TEN FARTHER AWAY FROM YAP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN AND LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM NOCK-TEN UP TO 75 MILES ON
THE EAST SIDE AND 45 MILES ON THE WEST SIDE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM IF NEEDED.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

Lowest pressure I found at Yap was 995mb and highest winds of 28 mph.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 DEC 2016 Time : 074000 UTC
Lat : 9:33:45 N Lon : 137:30:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 990.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -81.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.9 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220711Z GPM COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED
CENTER POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF YAP, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TS NOCK-
TEN IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TS NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS), DUE TO HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, PRIOR TO REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 55-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. GFDN, WHICH INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INTENSITY VALUES,
IS ERRONEOUSLY DRIVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
VIGOROUS NORTHEAST MONSOON FLOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS 30W
WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER WATER NEAR TAU 96.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER,
DRIER AIR AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE.
DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 150-NM AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE
IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE, THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO




GFS




HWRF

Peak and landfalls in Catanduanes Island