WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#121 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:05 am

Has there been any land data?
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#122 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:29 am

According to many Bicolanos, this typhoon is very similar/ comparable to typhoon Durian/Reming 2006.
They are terrified by the ferocious wind.

Vice Gov of Catanduanes is claiming that Nina/Nock-ten is the strongest ever to affect their province. I dont know if he's just exagerating but that surely describe the power of Nock-ten.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#123 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:34 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#124 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:52 am

mrbagyo wrote:According to many Bicolanos, this typhoon is very similar/ comparable to typhoon Durian/Reming 2006.
They are terrified by the ferocious wind.

Vice Gov of Catanduanes is claiming that Nina/Nock-ten is the strongest ever to affect their province. I dont know if he's just exagerating but that surely describe the power of Nock-ten.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if Nock-ten was of a similar intensity to Durian '06. The storms were quite similar in structure at the time of landfall, having just completed eyewall replacement. JTWC rated both at 135 kt at landfall.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:29 am

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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#126 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:29 pm

being reported on twitter than there was a 237kmh gust (147 mph) at the Naga airport
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 25, 2016 4:50 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
(EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS NOW DRAGGING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND
SLIGHTLY UNRAVELED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
WARM PIXEL CLUSTER ON THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ON A CIRCULATION
FEATURE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM TAGAYTAY CITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND FROM NEARBY OBSERVING STATIONS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SANS THE LAND INTERACTION, TY
30W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY NOCK-TEN WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF MANILA, BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TAU 18. AFTER TAU 24, TY
30W WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CHINA ASSUMES STEERING. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 24, CONCURRENT WITH THE CHANGE TO
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, TY 30W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
IN THE SCS. BY TAU 48, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING
IN THE SCS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#128 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:36 pm

Based on the data and that gust being in a very inland city, I would estimate the landfall intensity at 135 kt.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#129 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:04 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:According to many Bicolanos, this typhoon is very similar/ comparable to typhoon Durian/Reming 2006.
They are terrified by the ferocious wind.

Vice Gov of Catanduanes is claiming that Nina/Nock-ten is the strongest ever to affect their province. I dont know if he's just exagerating but that surely describe the power of Nock-ten.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if Nock-ten was of a similar intensity to Durian '06. The storms were quite similar in structure at the time of landfall, having just completed eyewall replacement. JTWC rated both at 135 kt at landfall.

Image

Image


It's basically a carbon copy of Typhoon Durian, same track, same intensity, almost the same structure, even their behavior resemble each other. I'm glad that the toll won't be the same though.

We didnt experience any typhoon condition here in Tagaytay city (I'm roughly 6km from the PAGASA Doppler radar) and i can tell that the effect of this typhoon in my location is also very much the same as Durian. Tropical storm force wind at most.

Batangas experienced typhoon condition according to my officemate (location : Taal, Batangas).
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#130 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:29 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY NOCK-TEN HAS
DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED AFTER PASSING OVER LUZON SOUTH OF MANILA, WITH
THE SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH MORE ASYMMETRIC AND RAGGED. CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY, THOUGH NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS REEMERGED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), THERE ARE HINTS
THAT BANDING MAY BE TRYING TO REESTABLISH. A 26/0436Z AMSR-2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THIS, SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CURVING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AS WELL AS COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM THE
DOPPLER RADAR AT TAGAYTAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF FIX DATA FROM PGTW, WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY VALUE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AS WELL ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) AUTOMATED
INTENSITY OF T4.1 (67 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY
30W IS TRAVERSING THROUGH A WEAKLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK WESTWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL THAILAND ACROSS THE BASHI CHANNEL AND
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
VICE ITS CURRENT EAST-WEST AXIS. AFTER TAU 24, THE LLCC WILL START
TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION, COMPLETING THIS PROCESS BY
TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE LLCC OF TY 30W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD SURGE EVENT. AS TY NOCK-TEN EMERGES INTO THE SCS, THERE IS A
18-24 HOUR WINDOW FOR IT TO REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH, AS IT TAPS
INTO MORE POLEWARD ORIENTED OUTFLOW AND BEFORE THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE COMBINE TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM APART. AFTER TAU 24, TY 30W WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND EXPOSURE TO THE
STRONG COLD AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IN THE SCS, FULLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SOME ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN THE SCS AFTER THE
DECOUPLING. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#131 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:31 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#132 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:45 am

Some historic information here.

Nock-Ten is now the STRONGEST ever Christmas typhoon for the Philippines and STRONGEST WORLDWIDE when it struck Catanduanes as a high end Category 4 with 135 knot winds. Beating out Typhoon Lee (Category 2) in 1981 and Typhoon Jean (Category 2) in 1947. It also beats out Cyclone Tracy when it struck Australia in 1974.

Nock-Ten is the STRONGEST landfalling typhoon on record anywhere in the Northwest Pacific so late in the year

The strongest non-landfalling typhoon ever recorded so late in the year was Super Typhoon Hester, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds on December 31, 1952, about 1,000 miles east of the Philippines. Hester recurved out to sea without affecting any land areas.
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#133 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:16 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RE-ORGANIZATION,
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING RAGGED AND ASYMMETRIC,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE EIR ALSO INDICATES
THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE
ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON PGTW AND RJTD FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 30W IS NEARLY
UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW PARTIALLY OFFSETTING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR WHICH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR, AFTER WHICH THE LLCC WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE EVENT AND TURN
SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD. AT THAT TIME, DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME
DECOUPLED AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, FOLLOWING THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. PRIOR TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING, AFTER WHICH HIGH
(25-30 KNOT) VWS AND THE CONVECTIVE DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN RAPID
WEAKENING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, HOWEVER,
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL MODEL VORTICITY FIELDS SUGGESTS DISSIPATION
MAY OCCUR EVEN SOONER. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#134 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:24 pm

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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#135 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:23 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEAL A RAGGED AND ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE
LLCC, TRACKING WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE LLCC IS SLOWING AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSUMES STEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 262228Z
AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS GIVEN THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE, AND CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 30W IS UNDERNEATH THE STR
AXIS, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS NO LONGER OFFSETTING THE EFFECTS
OF STRONG (25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE LLCC OF TS NOCK-TEN WILL TURN
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SURGE FLOW IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AS A RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE DECOUPLING AND THE COOL,
DRY AIR ASSCOCIATED WITH THE SURGE, THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#136 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:36 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

This is NOT official, but here is how I would have the best track for Nock-Ten as of now:

WP302016, NOCKTEN, 31,
20161221, 0000, , TD, 6.4N, 143.0E, 25, 1010,
20161221, 0600, , TD, 6.7N, 141.6E, 30, 1009,
20161221, 1200, , TS, 7.1N, 140.5E, 35, 1007,
20161221, 1800, , TS, 7.5N, 139.9E, 40, 1005,
20161222, 0000, , TS, 8.5N, 139.1E, 50, 1001,
20161222, 0600, , TS, 9.3N, 137.8E, 50, 1000,
20161222, 1200, , TS, 10.1N, 136.4E, 55, 997,
20161222, 1800, , TS, 10.8N, 135.1E, 60, 994,
20161223, 0000, , TY, 11.5N, 133.8E, 65, 991,
20161223, 0600, , TY, 12.1N, 132.2E, 70, 987,
20161223, 1200, , TY, 12.6N, 131.0E, 85, 977,
20161223, 1800, , TY, 13.0N, 129.9E, 110, 954,
20161224, 0000, , TY, 13.3N, 129.1E, 120, 946,
20161224, 0600, , ST, 13.3N, 128.2E, 135, 934,
20161224, 1200, , ST, 13.5N, 127.4E, 130, 936,
20161224, 1800, , TY, 13.6N, 126.7E, 125, 939,
20161225, 0000, , ST, 13.5N, 125.9E, 140, 926,
20161225, 0600, , ST, 13.5N, 125.1E, 135, 930,
20161225, 0930, L, ST, 13.5N, 124.4E, 135, 931, Landfall on Nagumbuaya Point, Catanduanes
20161225, 1030, L, ST, 13.5N, 124.2E, 130, 933, Landfall at Antipolo del Sur, Catanduanes
20161225, 1200, , TY, 13.5N, 123.9E, 125, 937,
20161225, 1330, L, TY, 13.5N, 123.6E, 125, 937, Landfall near the Albay-Camarines Sur border
20161225, 1800, , TY, 13.5N, 122.9E, 105, 950,
20161225, 2130, L, TY, 13.5N, 122.6E, 95, 957, Landfall north of San Andres, Quezon
20161226, 0000, , TY, 13.6N, 122.0E, 90, 961,
20161226, 0245, L, TY, 13.7N, 121.4E, 85, 964, Landfall near Laiya, Batangas
20161226, 0535, L, TY, 13.8N, 120.7E, 75, 971, Landfall near Catalagan, Batangas
20161226, 0600, , TY, 13.8N, 120.6E, 75, 972,
20161226, 1200, , TY, 14.2N, 118.9E, 70, 977,
20161226, 1800, , TS, 14.7N, 117.7E, 60, 985,
20161227, 0000, , TS, 15.0N, 116.4E, 55, 989,
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#137 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:16 am

Sadly 6 people have lost their lives.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#138 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:25 am

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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#139 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:32 am

Death by decoupling.

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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

#140 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:42 pm

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WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (NOCK-TEN)
WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
374 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON
SURGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A 30 TO 40
KNOT SURGE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS
(10-15 KNOT) TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE
BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE STRONG (30-40 KNOT) COLD SURGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE POOR WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PREVENTING THE LIMITED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC.
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE COLD SURGE EVENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIR. TD 30W WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 24.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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