WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#61 Postby Dave C » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:13 pm

Outflow is linking to the westerlies.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:36 pm

WP, 30, 201612232030, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 12940E, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , W, KNES, AS, IM, 1, 6060 /////, , , HMWRI8, LLCC, T, DT=6.5 BO EYE MET=5.0 PT=5.0 FTBO RI
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:37 pm

What did I just read? JTWC as usual doing the BO PT stuff.

TPPN10 PGTW 232116

A. TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 23/2100Z

C. 13.07N

D. 129.38E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 WHILE PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#64 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:48 pm

WOW!

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#65 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:49 pm

TXPQ27 KNES 232057
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 23/2030Z

C. 13.1N

D. 129.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=6.5 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE WITH OW EYE
SURROUNDED BY CDG. PT-5.0. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON 6 HR MANUAL AVERAGE
OF PAST 6 HRS DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#66 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:50 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 DEC 2016 Time : 211000 UTC
Lat : 13:03:35 N Lon : 129:19:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 956.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.4 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#67 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:00 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#68 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:42 pm

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:35 pm

the W, if not CMG, is .5 degrees wide. Eye number is T6.0 at least.

TPPN10 PGTW 240022

A. TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 24/0000Z

C. 13.09N

D. 128.92E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 WHILE PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#70 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:07 pm

Image

Nothing good to say about this situation nature can be so cruel.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#71 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:22 pm

Image

Very tiny core. I'm fearing that it would undergo EWRC ,expand in size and finish it before landfall?
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#72 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:17 pm

mrbagyo wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/WPAC/30W.NOCK-TEN/tc_ssmis/composite/20161223.2246.f18.x.composite.30WNOCK-TEN.110kts-941mb-131N-1290E.55pc.jpg

Very tiny core. I'm fearing that it would undergo EWRC ,expand in size and finish it before landfall?


That seems quite likely.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#73 Postby Alyono » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:23 pm

looks like this is trying to go full Haiyan
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#74 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:07 pm

JTWC should upgrade Nock-Ten to Category 5 in the next advisory.
It's approaching the 7.5 territory if not there already.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#75 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:08 pm

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#76 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:15 pm

SAB's 0230Z fix looks pretty good to me, although I would probably go on the high side of 6.5 (I'm not so sure the cold medium grey failed width requirements, but constraints would come into play then). The eye has cooled off some in recent hours, so it'll be interesting to watch the trend. If Nock-ten can remain somewhat status quo until 06Z, I might consider analyzing the storm at 135 or 140 kt.

TXPQ27 KNES 240259
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 24/0230Z

C. 13.1N

D. 128.6E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.5 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE WITH OF
EYE SURROUNDED BY CDG. PT=5.5. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. 12,18 AND 24 HR CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO 6 HR AVERAGE
MANUAL DT=6.5.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:55 pm

Given the rapid intensification and Dvorak constraints, I would probably go at least 145 or 150 kt.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#78 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:19 am

Whew.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#79 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:38 am

^given that latest MW image and the eye cooling down a bit, it looks like EWRC is coming up..
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Typhoon

#80 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 24, 2016 2:14 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 DEC 2016 Time : 061000 UTC
Lat : 13:17:28 N Lon : 128:07:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.1mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -23.8C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 116km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.6 degrees

****************************************************
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