ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

I wonder...outloud..will there be a movement West by the NHC in the 4 pm CST update...hummm

[Alyono]

I wonder...outloud..will there be a movement West by the NHC in the 4 pm CST update...hummm

funny how private industry has had this in Texas for a good long while

[Tireman4]

I wonder...outloud..will there be a movement West by the NHC in the 4 pm CST update...hummm

funny how private industry has had this in Texas for a good long while

I know...especially that Chris guy at Storm Geo. I just love him...

[Texashawk]

For such a weak looking storm convection-wise on the west side, there are some surprisingly stout winds. I wouldn't completely discount the wind threat yet, even in the 'clean' side

[weathaguyry]

As of 18:22 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 26.60°N 91.17°W
Bearing: 90° at 215 kt
Altitude: 320 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 33 kt at 27°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

181300 2629N 09137W 9668 00329 //// +227 //// 024033 036 032 000 05
181330 2630N 09137W 9660 00337 //// +231 //// 024033 035 /// /// 05
181400 2631N 09136W 9656 00339 //// +225 //// 022035 036 /// /// 05
181430 2632N 09135W 9660 00337 //// +228 //// 021035 036 033 001 05
181500 2632N 09133W 9655 00340 //// +225 //// 018034 035 030 001 01
181530 2632N 09131W 9666 00330 //// +225 //// 018035 036 030 000 01
181600 2632N 09130W 9662 00333 //// +224 //// 016035 037 031 001 01
181630 2633N 09128W 9662 00333 //// +225 //// 013035 037 032 000 01
181700 2633N 09127W 9668 00328 //// +225 //// 014031 033 031 000 01
181730 2633N 09125W 9660 00335 //// +227 //// 015033 034 032 002 01
181800 2634N 09124W 9663 00329 //// +232 //// 015034 037 031 002 01
181830 2634N 09122W 9667 00328 //// +226 //// 016033 034 032 001 01
181900 2634N 09121W 9656 00336 //// +226 //// 017030 032 030 001 05
181930 2635N 09119W 9658 00334 //// +223 //// 022031 033 033 000 01
182000 2635N 09118W 9665 00325 //// +225 //// 027035 036 034 000 01
182030 2635N 09116W 9664 00326 //// +223 //// 029036 037 035 001 01
182100 2636N 09115W 9661 00326 //// +223 //// 030033 034 034 001 05
182130 2636N 09113W 9658 00326 //// +220 //// 031031 033 030 000 01
182200 2636N 09112W 9669 00318 //// +221 //// 030031 033 030 001 01
182230 2636N 09110W 9662 00320 //// +221 //// 027030 033 032 001 01

[RL3AO]

Curious if we will see a narrow band of storm surge products as the track shifts further west. Won't take much for the chance at 3' of inundation along the coast.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Curious if we will see a narrow band of storm surge products as the track shifts further west. Won't take much for the chance at 3' of inundation along the coast.

Yes, I'm curious about this also. Wish I had more information relating to that potential.

[Tireman4]

From Jeff..


Update from Jeff:

USAF mission has found that Cindy has developed enough organization to be declared a tropical storm.

Additionally, the wind field has been significantly expanded in all directions based on both the USAF data and oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Also the USAF mission has determined that Cindy has stalled across the central Gulf and is slowly become more like a true tropical cyclone.

Adjustments to the watches and warnings may be required later this afternoon based on the wind field being found over the Gulf of Mexico.

[tropicwatch]

I wonder...outloud..will there be a movement West by the NHC in the 4 pm CST update...hummm

You making fun of me because I mentioned the front?:) I was right about the ull not dissipating.

[RL3AO]

Curious if we will see a narrow band of storm surge products as the track shifts further west. Won't take much for the chance at 3' of inundation along the coast.

Yes, I'm curious about this also. Wish I had more information relating to that potential.

I know that these large and one-sided tropical storms don't work in SLOSH, which is what the SSU uses to make probabilistic surge forecasts. They might try to use an extratropical surge model and input the wind field, but that won't give any real probablistic/ensemble sense of the surge risk.

[weathaguyry]

As of 18:32 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 26.60°N 90.68°W
Bearing: 90° at 215 kt
Altitude: 304 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 36 kt at 31°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

182300 2635N 09109W 9667 00315 //// +220 //// 027034 035 030 001 01
182330 2635N 09107W 9662 00319 //// +217 //// 028032 034 030 001 01
182400 2635N 09105W 9669 00311 //// +223 //// 023030 034 027 003 01
182430 2634N 09104W 9666 00315 //// +228 //// 027032 033 028 002 01
182500 2634N 09102W 9659 00320 //// +224 //// 031032 035 031 002 01
182530 2634N 09101W 9669 00308 0019 +247 //// 036037 039 030 005 01
182600 2633N 09059W 9661 00315 0019 +240 //// 029039 040 036 004 01
182630 2633N 09058W 9667 00311 //// +224 //// 028041 044 035 005 05
182700 2632N 09056W 9669 00309 0018 +236 //// 028043 043 034 006 05
182730 2632N 09054W 9656 00318 0016 +238 //// 023038 043 037 005 01
182800 2632N 09053W 9664 00311 0018 +217 //// 023039 041 035 007 01
182830 2632N 09051W 9654 00319 //// +219 //// 025039 040 032 003 01
182900 2631N 09050W 9663 00308 //// +212 //// 023039 040 037 000 05
182930 2632N 09048W 9665 00307 //// +211 //// 025040 042 036 002 01
183000 2633N 09047W 9664 00306 //// +213 //// 028039 040 037 002 01
183030 2634N 09046W 9658 00309 //// +217 //// 028038 039 037 003 01
183100 2634N 09045W 9664 00303 //// +219 //// 029038 038 038 000 01
183130 2635N 09044W 9659 00308 //// +220 //// 028037 038 038 001 05
183200 2636N 09043W 9658 00308 //// +215 //// 028036 037 036 002 01
183230 2636N 09041W 9661 00304 //// +219 //// 031034 036 034 002 01

[Tireman4]

I wonder...outloud..will there be a movement West by the NHC in the 4 pm CST update...hummm

You making fun of me because I mentioned the front?:) I was right about the ull not dissipating.

Nope. Not even close. I was making this statement about the Euro..which still has it coming to Galveston, only stronger. Sorry if you felt that....

[Tireman4]

From Srain on another channel..

12Z GEFS Ensemble members are suggesting a possible Upper Texas Coast solution.

[Kazmit]

It's a very large storm . I like how the NHC now includes wind field in their standard cone graphic. It shows that you do not have to be inside the cone to be impacted by the storm (especially with this one, as the wind field extends well beyond the width of the cone).

[wxman22]

Yes, Euro has 10 meter winds gusting to 64 knots over Galveston Bay.

[Tireman4]

It's a very large storm . I like how the NHC now includes wind field in their standard cone graphic. It shows that you do not have to be inside the cone to be impacted by the storm (especially with this one, as the wind field extends well beyond the width of the cone).

Alyono would hug you for making that statement.

[GCANE]

Interesting set of gravity waves.

[weathaguyry]

As of 18:42 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 26.87°N 90.23°W
Bearing: 90° at 214 kt
Altitude: 303 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 21 kt at 169°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

183300 2637N 09040W 9670 00296 //// +213 //// 030035 036 034 002 01
183330 2638N 09039W 9664 00302 //// +213 //// 030032 034 032 001 01
183400 2639N 09038W 9661 00306 //// +217 //// 033029 031 031 001 05
183430 2639N 09037W 9655 00311 //// +217 //// 033026 028 032 000 01
183500 2640N 09035W 9664 00303 //// +222 //// 034026 027 027 002 01
183530 2641N 09034W 9665 00302 //// +220 //// 033025 026 027 001 01
183600 2642N 09033W 9660 00306 //// +227 //// 039019 024 029 001 01
183630 2643N 09032W 9664 00302 //// +228 //// 041016 018 027 000 01
183700 2643N 09030W 9661 00306 //// +226 //// 038014 016 026 000 01
183730 2644N 09029W 9665 00301 //// +229 //// 043013 015 025 000 01
183800 2645N 09028W 9666 00301 //// +228 //// 050009 012 023 001 05
183830 2646N 09026W 9662 00306 //// +229 //// 084007 008 020 001 01
183900 2647N 09025W 9660 00307 //// +231 //// 125008 009 014 001 01
183930 2648N 09023W 9665 00303 //// +232 //// 135008 009 012 001 01
184000 2649N 09022W 9659 00308 //// +231 //// 145010 011 012 001 05
184030 2649N 09020W 9658 00308 //// +234 //// 159013 013 011 000 05
184100 2650N 09019W 9663 00303 //// +234 //// 157013 013 011 001 05
184130 2651N 09017W 9663 00305 //// +235 //// 162017 018 013 000 05
184200 2652N 09016W 9658 00309 //// +235 //// 166019 019 014 001 01
184230 2652N 09014W 9664 00303 //// +235 //// 169020 021 012 001 01

[SunnyThoughts]

http://weartv.com/weather/radar That is a ton of rain.

[GCANE]

Cindy is already breaking my heart.
First false eye of the season.