ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

[sphelps8681]

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

I read that in their discussion but why do they do that?

[tropicwatch]

http://weartv.com/weather/radar That is a ton of rain.

I have received 1.3 inches of rain at my house since midnight last night in Panama City. A lot of the heavy rain missed my house but I know there is more to come.

[Tireman4]

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

Yeah, that is what the Chris guy from Storm Geo alluded to...the winds and track...I like him and his forecast. I agree with EVERYTHING you stated. I understand the NHC being conservative, but great land of goshen....do you figure they will move the track west at the 5?

[weathaguyry]

As of 18:52 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 27.25°N 89.82°W
Bearing: 45° at 161 kt
Altitude: 314 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 33 kt at 159°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

184300 2653N 09012W 9666 00303 //// +235 //// 171022 022 014 001 01
184330 2653N 09011W 9659 00309 //// +238 //// 171022 023 014 001 01
184400 2654N 09009W 9668 00303 //// +235 //// 168023 024 016 000 01
184430 2655N 09008W 9658 00314 //// +235 //// 167024 024 014 001 01
184500 2655N 09006W 9660 00312 //// +233 //// 169023 024 014 001 01
184530 2656N 09004W 9664 00308 //// +236 //// 177025 026 012 002 05
184600 2656N 09003W 9666 00309 //// +235 //// 176028 030 016 001 05
184630 2657N 09001W 9658 00317 //// +235 //// 173030 030 014 001 01
184700 2658N 09000W 9662 00312 //// +235 //// 174030 030 015 002 01
184730 2700N 08958W 9668 00306 //// +233 //// 176026 029 016 003 01
184800 2701N 08957W 9662 00313 //// +235 //// 173027 030 018 003 05
184830 2703N 08956W 9663 00313 //// +235 //// 165030 030 016 001 01
184900 2704N 08955W 9663 00313 //// +235 //// 162030 030 017 001 05
184930 2706N 08955W 9664 00312 //// +237 //// 162030 030 019 001 01
185000 2707N 08954W 9658 00317 //// +240 //// 162030 031 018 001 01
185030 2709N 08953W 9666 00309 //// +237 //// 159031 031 018 001 01
185100 2711N 08952W 9659 00315 //// +237 //// 158031 032 019 001 01
185130 2712N 08951W 9668 00308 //// +235 //// 159033 033 019 002 01
185200 2714N 08950W 9663 00315 //// +235 //// 158033 033 022 001 05
185230 2715N 08949W 9662 00314 //// +234 //// 159033 033 021 001 05

[RL3AO]

Random aside. Found a pretty neat how the edge of the deep convection across the SE US lined up so well with the axis of dilatation in the 500mb winds.

[HurricaneBrain]

I think the track will move west next update.

[mcheer23]

I think the track will move west next update.

Agreed. High Island area?

[latitude_20]

For anyone wondering how 93L is interacting with the Upper Level Low to its west, click on the link below and look to the left. You can click on Mid Level Water Vapor or Low level Water Vapor under select a product. This is beyond cool.

Low Level Water Vapor
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-10-48-1

Mid Level Water Vapor
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-09-48-1

Yep and still a boatload of dry air out there too, but nobody wants to talk about that

Some afternoon pop-up thundershowers may fire off over Mexico.
Debris from that would be able to work its way into that dry slot and moisten it up a bit.

Plenty wet and breezy here in Tulum. Just returned from an errand in Playa Del Carmen and it's pouring there too.

[Tireman4]

I think the track will move west next update.

Agreed. High Island area?

Me..my thinking...maybe...Galveston....who knows...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[PTrackerLA]

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

Current NHC track is dead center on the 18z TVCN, I don't see any reason to shift significantly westward.

[HurricaneBrain]

I can see the center of the track being moved between Port Arthur and Houston. Doesn't really change the impact of Cindy however.

I think the track will move west next update.

Agreed. High Island area?

[weathaguyry]

As of 19:02 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 27.52°N 89.35°W
Bearing: 90° at 106 kt
Altitude: 323 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 40 kt at 152°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

185300 2716N 08948W 9668 00311 //// +232 //// 160033 033 021 001 01
185330 2718N 08947W 9658 00319 //// +235 //// 160033 034 020 001 05
185400 2719N 08946W 9664 00314 //// +235 //// 158036 036 022 002 01
185430 2721N 08945W 9664 00314 //// +238 //// 157035 036 021 002 01
185500 2722N 08944W 9662 00318 0021 +240 //// 155036 036 025 003 01
185530 2723N 08942W 9662 00318 0022 +242 //// 158036 037 024 006 01
185600 2723N 08941W 9672 00309 0022 +248 //// 157034 038 023 005 01
185630 2724N 08939W 9667 00315 //// +237 //// 152038 041 027 001 05
185700 2724N 08938W 9660 00320 //// +241 //// 149038 041 025 002 05
185730 2725N 08936W 9657 00324 //// +236 //// 151036 038 026 001 01
185800 2726N 08934W 9663 00318 //// +237 //// 150038 039 023 003 01
185830 2726N 08933W 9663 00319 //// +238 //// 150042 044 027 002 05
185900 2727N 08931W 9660 00322 //// +237 //// 151040 042 025 002 01
185930 2727N 08930W 9666 00318 //// +238 //// 149037 041 025 001 01
190000 2728N 08928W 9664 00320 //// +236 //// 152038 039 026 001 05
190030 2729N 08927W 9664 00320 //// +236 //// 153039 041 028 001 01
190100 2729N 08925W 9665 00319 //// +238 //// 152037 038 025 001 01
190130 2730N 08924W 9662 00323 //// +238 //// 152038 039 025 002 05
190200 2731N 08922W 9662 00324 //// +241 //// 153039 040 027 001 01
190230 2731N 08921W 9665 00323 //// +236 //// 152039 040 024 001 01

[mcheer23]

I can see the center of the track being moved between Port Arthur and Houston. Doesn't really change the impact of Cindy however.

I think the track will move west next update.

Agreed. High Island area?

The further west it shifts, the impact is changed for the general Houston area. As far as Lousiana, MS, AL, FL. No impact changes. Still going to get very heavy rain.

[Stormcenter]

But right now it doesn't seem to be going there so they may all have it wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. We shall see.

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

[HurricaneBrain]

The TVCN is a model produced by the NHC and is the average of at least two models. The TVCN model should be more west like the Euro and GFS, which would make the path shift west.

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

Current NHC track is dead center on the 18z TVCN, I don't see any reason to shift significantly westward.

[Hurricane_Apu]

This storm reminds me of Frances from 1998, a huge system that produced significant storm surge while never reaching hurricane strength...

[HurricaneBrain]

Agreed.

I can see the center of the track being moved between Port Arthur and Houston. Doesn't really change the impact of Cindy however.

Agreed. High Island area?

The further west it shifts, the impact is changed for the general Houston area. As far as Lousiana, MS, AL, FL. No impact changes. Still going to get very heavy rain.

[mcheer23]

The TVCN is a model produced by the NHC. The TVCN model should be more west like the Euro and GFS, thus making the path shift west.

Current NHC track is east of about 98% of all operational dynamic models and the CMC, GFS, and Euro ensemble members. Even the 12Z GFS ensembles are centered on eastern Galveston. Also, the plane is missing the heavy squalls NE of the center. Winds are likely 45kts now, possibly higher. Could peak at 50kts tonight.

Current NHC track is dead center on the 18z TVCN, I don't see any reason to shift significantly westward.

Don't know why the new GFDL didnt update on there?

[ronyan]

I'm not sure what "it doesn't seem to be going there" is supposed to mean. Are you just talking about the present movement? The movement has been quite erratic so I don't see how you could extrapolate much from it.