ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

12Z GFS animation

[TheStormExpert]

Tweets and images from Ryan Maue
[tw eet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/877226773913767937[/tweet]

ECMWF 12z landfalls TS Cindy into Houston ... could be some strong winds ... keep watch on the coast ... 990 mb is minor hurricane pressure

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[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/W7qgD2a.png[/img]

With Cindy being such a large storm wouldn't we need even lower pressure for it to acquire hurricane intensity?

[Stormcenter]

Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[ronjon]

A naked swirl now - perhaps NHC upgraded too soon. I dunno - these systems that are borderline are so subjective to call. Weather will be about the same either way so other than us purists not sure it matters all that much.

[GCANE]

One of the problems it is having is the inflow from the southeast, which is probably more buoyant and wanting to rise, is getting directed into the convection to the NE of the low and not into the low itself. Maybe if the low can start pivoting to the NE as it goes through the cyclonic loop, it might attract more of that SE flow into the center leading to new thunderstorm development over the center.

That inflow air from the SE is pretty juicy.
Theta-E in it is rapidly rising and last analysis from COD shows 365.
Later tonight, when the uppper troposphere cools off, bouyancy will increase and could see more convection kick off.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah it looks like the CoC isnt really moving, just going through a cycle. Western side looks better today, relatively.

[ROCK]

Looks like Cindy wants to take a dive SSE. Yeah she is doing exactly what the models said she would.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

its called a cyclonic loop and I think the NAM has been showing it....

[southwest southerner]

Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

These wobbles mean nothing

[Hammy]

Surprised they went with tropical vs subtropical. Either way, when's the last time we had two storms at once in June?

[Stormcenter]

Mean nothing? I'm not sure I buy into that but hey your opinion.

Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

These wobbles mean nothing

[HurricaneBrain]

If the NAM can sniff out a cyclonic loop then maybe we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss their forecast of a hurricane into Galveston Bay

[RL3AO]

Surprised they went with tropical vs subtropical. Either way, when's the last time we had two storms at once in June?

1968

[Stormcenter]

Funny how we pick and choose things we believe about models. So the NAM is good for loops but not strength.

[ROCK]

Tweets and images from Ryan Maue
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/877226773913767937




ECMWF 12z landfalls TS Cindy into Houston ... could be some strong winds ... keep watch on the coast ... 990 mb is minor hurricane pressure

saved image

EURO pretty firm on this fro some runs now....no since to go against it now with the GFS ensembles inching west.

[Hammy]

Funny how we pick and choose things we believe about models. So the NAM is good for loops but not strength.

NAM has actually done well recently with track (and in 2015 was the only model to develop Claudette before it happened.) The problem with intensity is that it's a very high resolution model, so it's prone to overplaying the impact of convective development.

[Aric Dunn]

Now making a E ENE move, based on latest sat. loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

just a normal cyclonic loop. they happen when systems are developing and when they are stalled.

[RL3AO]

Now, can it develop some new storms near the center once it starts moving NE? It should be able to...

[Aric Dunn]

Now, can it develop some new storms near the center once it starts moving NE? It should be able to...

I dont know.. but cimss shear maps really want to put that upper outflow pattern on top of it.. its really close ,... just keeps inching its way closer..

[Dean4Storms]

So far that ULL isn't going nowhere.........
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[RL3AO]

As it starts to rotate to the east and then NE in the cyclonic loop, you can already see the NE part of the center become more agitated. Probably will get a new convective burst soon. It'll inevitably get sheared away, but it's still fun to watch these things!