ATL: MARIA - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

Gfs running

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_12.png

[floridasun78]

ok my weatherman say we looking good now area north Carolina need watch it

[NJWxHurricane]

18z gfs through hr 96 is a bit nw
florida should be fine this run as jose is actually stalling just south of Cape Cod
i think it recurves ots unless jose stops stalling

['CaneFreak]

Through hr 108. Jose is heading east and weakening and Maria is moving NNW.

[MWatkins]

Well, not exactly the trend the EC was hoping for. 18z GFS essentially fills in whatever's left of Jose by day 4-5 under the mid-level amplifying ridge.

Not sure how Maria is going to get out on this run...

In the interim best wishes and thoughts for our friends in Puerto Rico.

MW

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, not exactly the trend the EC was hoping for. 18z GFS essentially fills in whatever's left of Jose by day 4-5 under the mid-level amplifying ridge.

Not sure how Maria is going to get out on this run...

In the interim best wishes and thoughts for our friends in Puerto Rico.

MW

Agreed, not liking the west trend today.

['CaneFreak]

WOW. This run is going to be a close call for NC. It is still heading north-northwest at hour 120. 588 contour line completely enclosed around the Bermuda-Azores High and Northeast High. Jose no longer has much of a reflection on the 500 height map.

[NJWxHurricane]

18z gfs hr 126 very close to the outer banks
i wouldn't be sleeping on this if you are in NC

['CaneFreak]

Hour 126 500 MB Height and Vorticity Map. WOW. Huge changes.

[Aric Dunn]

well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming

looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run

[SunnyThoughts]

Watch out outer banks at 144 hrs

['CaneFreak]

Just misses us this run. Will get within 50 miles of Hatteras. Wow.

well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming

looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run

[NJWxHurricane]

well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming

looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run

looks to be heading nne at 144, think this skims NC

[tgenius]

well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming

looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run

Aric assuming this were to play out with the gfs shifts is it realistic to assume the high wouldn’t reach as far south to start the westerly track sooner? I’m just trying to get an understanding of how the high would be impacted without Jose’s interaction.

[Aric Dunn]

the most realistic model run with jose.. kills jose much faster ( though not as fast as it will likely happen) immediately we see a shift west.. 18z members are probably going to be all over the place. probably from florida to bermuda.

[robbielyn]

Can't imagine GIV data is in yet, flight is still in progress and by my look they haven't sampled much of the environment yet.

I'm still of the mind that this won't be an issue for Florida, but further north is absolutely in play. Unless anything changes with the 00z run, with the GIV data, it would take one of the biggest model mess ups we've ever seen to bring this to Florida.

That is certainly ok by me!(it not being a florida issue)

[tarheelprogrammer]

If Jose is weaker than the models think in a few days then this is going to hit the SE coastline. Just my opinion there. GFS is close to my thinking, and I believe it will landfall somewhere on the SC coast before it is all said and done. Still a long ways to go though, and plenty of model shifts to come.

['CaneFreak]

That trough in the west seems to be a key to the downstream ridging as others have noted here earlier. We really need to wait for that energy out west to get sampled. It will be coming onshore of the west coast in the next 24-36 hours. I am wondering if the GFS is handling it properly.

[Aric Dunn]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol