ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Funny how we pick and choose things we believe about models. So the NAM is good for loops but not strength.

sometimes the location of the poster determines if the NAM is worth looking at for a given system

[Frank P]

Funny how we pick and choose things we believe about models. So the NAM is good for loops but not strength.

sometimes the location of the poster determines if the NAM is worth looking at for a given system

That is true for a plethora of models... we like to pick our poison so to say!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The NAM might not be far off. Lets be honest here.

[Aric Dunn]

So far that ULL isn't going nowhere.........
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

idk there is definitely some wsw to sw drifting going on.. also look north over texas the frontal passage is pushing southward and may nudge it some more potentially far enough to get the western side into the more divergent flow

[gatorcane]

High-res NEXSTAT SAT loop offers spectacular views:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/ ... PE=Instant

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Strong bands of intense rain are forecast by the HRRR to stream across SE Louisiana to Alabama- watch the heavier bands for flooding! #Cindy

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/877256549458227200

[RL3AO]

High-res NEXSTAT SAT loop offers spectacular views:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/ ... PE=Instant

GOES-16 provides even more spectacular views

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[Tireman4]

The NAM might not be far off. Lets be honest here.

And folks scoffed at the NAM...LOL

[Steve]

Hey mods, don't get mad at me for this. I know it's not the models thread, but just to back up the point people were making, this is NAM yesterday 06z. It didn't exactly work like it shows, but you can see some of the reactions if you run it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=100

And also the 00z from yesterday might even be a better example. The first loop (the one Aric was referring to yesterday) had more to do with the rotating voticies though the "center" did make a loop. But it's kind of uncanny as to the movement through today.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=100

Also, if you run today's 18z 12km, it makes at least 2 more loops on the way to landfall. Let's see if it sniffs those out.

[Hurricane_Apu]

If it stays stalled for an entire day, none of the models are going to win this.

[southerngale]

Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 90.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to San Luis
Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Cindy has
been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a
northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue
through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward
the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within
the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[CFLHurricane]

If it stays stalled for an entire day, none of the models are going to win this.

Who doesn't love a good upset? It'd be interesting to see how the models would change with a stalled system.

[MississippiWx]

A naked swirl now - perhaps NHC upgraded too soon. I dunno - these systems that are borderline are so subjective to call. Weather will be about the same either way so other than us purists not sure it matters all that much.

Not upgraded too soon. Cindy should, in fact, be Cindy. The issue is it may be more subtropical than tropical. The appearance of Cindy on satellite is very typical of a subtropical cyclone. It is tangled with an upper low, thus the thunderstorms and impactful weather being 100+ miles from the center. Make no mistake, though, the winds are still howling near the low. Just check out recon. Even the west side is gusty.

[mcheer23]

I think the track will move west next update.

Agreed. High Island area?

Ding ding ding, do i get a cookie for being right?

[Stormcenter]

Personally I can't see how this stall or whatever you want to call it won't affect the projected path if it last more than just a few hours. I mean this has not moved much all day.

[MississippiWx]

@EricBlake12
Strong bands of intense rain are forecast by the HRRR to stream across SE Louisiana to Alabama- watch the heavier bands for flooding! #Cindy

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 9458227200

If the HRRR is correct, some locations along the Central Gulf Coast are in for more than a foot of rain. Many locations around here are already water logged from days and days of thunderstorms the last month.

[canetracker]

Personally I can't see how this stall or whatever you want to call it won't affect the projected path if it last more than just a few hours. I mean this has not moved much all day.

Yep, I was wondering the same thing.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD this afternoon::


000
FXUS64 KHGX 202049
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Cindy continues to dominate the
forecast as it meanders over the Central Gulf. The new advisory
drifts the track a bit more to the west, necessitating the upgrade
of the tropical storm watch area to a tropical storm warning. The
expectation for primary threat to the area continues to be for
heavy rainfall along and east of the track`s expected center,
which may cause some limited flooding threat. Some minor impacts
from wind gusts and elevated tidal levels may be seen in parts of
the Bolivar Peninsula as well. More details can be found in issued
tropical products.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weather continues to be hot and largely dry across Southeast Texas
today while Tropical Storm Cindy continues to try to organize well
offshore. Radar has shown some showers trying to develop along a
coastal boundary from Liberty County southwest through Brazoria
County towards Matagorda Bay. For the most part, these showers have
been isolated, light, and short-lived. However, near Matagorda Bay,
these showers have been a bit more successful.

These showers should come to an end this evening, but overnight look
for rain chances over the offshore waters to increase as the
circulation of Cindy continues to draw nearer. Over land, expect
scattered clouds to become a bit more dominant overnight, but
don`t expect temperatures to fall below the middle to upper 70s
thanks to high dewpoints.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The caveat right up front: This portion of the forecast is going
to be very dependent on the precise track of Cindy. A deviation in
track to the left or right will move impact areas accordingly.

Now, much of the morning should continue as past days have.
The key harbinger of change will be increasing clouds from the
southeast as Cindy moves closer to the area. Most should stay dry
Wednesday morning with most outer rains still offshore - however,
immediate coastal areas may start to see increased showers begin
to pop up. Rainfall potential will increase through the afternoon,
with the prime time for rain occurring Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Some heavy rains will obviously be possible,
with the highest threat along and east of the storm`s center.
As of the current forecast track for the storm, this will put the
heaviest rain east of the Houston metro, from the coast up towards
Livingston. It`s worth noting that Cindy`s lopsided appearance
means that the rainfall gradient on the west side of the center is
likely to be very sharp, with the difference between solid rain
totals and very little rain not likely to be separated by a great
distance. Because of this, will hold off on any flash flood
watches for now to gain some more confidence on where the heaviest
rain is likely to fall.

Cindy`s center will continue to move north through Thursday and
Thursday night, before a northern stream trough passing through
the Great Lakes will draw what`s left of the storm to the
northeast through Louisiana. As it does so, rain chances will draw
down, but continue to linger into Thursday night. It probably goes
without saying, but high temperatures will be noticeably cooler
with cloudy skies and rain keeping temperatures down. Overnight,
though, these factors will also keep low temperatures elevated,
suppressing the diurnal curve in temperatures.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Friday and Friday night look a bit drier as Cindy accelerates
away from the region. But this trend does not look to be terribly
long lived as the upper trough that takes the storm away will dig
into the Eastern US, and help a cold front slide into the area.
There is considerable uncertainty in exactly how this front will
behave, but for now models suggest it may stall out in the general
vicinity of the coast, and could provide a focus for continued
rainy activity into early next week. Previous guidance had also
brought in a surge of very high moisture - about 2.3 inches of
precipitable water - as well, which alerted to potential that
Cindy may be a predecessor event for later high rainfall. The GFS
has since backed off of that, but still keeps precipitable water
around or above 1.75 inches with weak to non-existent capping,
which could allow for some very rainy showers and storms. With
strong focus put on Cindy, simply want to highlight the fact that
continued showers and storms may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Expecting VFR conditions across SE TX through the rest of the af-
ternoon into most of the overnight hours. Forecast tomorrow will
be including the mention of precipitation/lower CIGS as TS Cindy
near the coast. Gusty winds this afternoon should decouple a bit
tonight, but are expected to increase once again tomorrow. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the eastern portions
of the marine CWA as TS Cindy approaches from the Gulf. SCECs/SCAs
will be in effect for the western half of our marine zones at 00Z.

Tides are currently running from 1/2 to 1 foot above normal in and
around Galveston Bay. Based on the current track of TS Cindy...the
forecast calls for slightly above 3 ft mllw at the beaches at high
tide Weds...then followed by levels falling to 1-2 ft below normal
as the storms moves inland Weds night/Thurs.

Looking ahead (in the wake of the storm) moderate/strong southerly
winds should develop/prevail areawide by Thurs afternoon into Fri.
The pressure gradient is expected to weaken late Fri night on into
the weekend as a frontal boundary moves in from the NNE. This pat-
tern will produce light SE winds Sat over the coastal waters. This
weak backdoor cold front is progged to push into the eastern bays/
nearshore waters Sun. 41

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rises to action stage are expected across rivers and
tributaries in Southeast Texas. Minor river flooding is possible
for areas east of I-45. Keep in mind that higher intensity
rainfall, especially in areas where rain accumulates over 3-4+
inches, increases flood potential. Need to keep an eye on
tributaries of San Jacinto and Trinity River basins with the
current track.

&&

.TROPICAL...

Nothing more to add on Cindy that hasn`t already been said earlier
in this discussion and in other tropical products issued by this
office and the National Hurricane Center. Please refer to those
for more details.

In the Caribbean, Bret has succumbed to hostile conditions as
expected and opened into a tropical wave. Do not expect any
troubles from this feature in Southeast Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 91 75 87 76 / 10 20 40 60 40
Houston (IAH) 78 88 77 86 78 / 10 50 80 70 60
Galveston (GLS) 80 85 80 86 83 / 20 70 80 70 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones:
Chambers...Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 2 PM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening
through Wednesday morning for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
NM...Matagorda Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...41
HYDROLOGY...38
TROPICAL...Luchs

[davidiowx]

[SunnyThoughts]

The longer it takes to start moving , the longer it will take for these bands of rain to clear out.