ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

From VIS loop it looks like any surface organization that existed the last few days just collapsed in the last few hours.

I think the circulation is out front. You can also see the building convection to the north probably the result of interaction with the Upper Level Low. That's got to back off for this to have any chance at all though it could result in pattern reversal if it moves far enough out of the picture.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Nimbus]

The ULL is finally starting to fill in and the convection will build back west over the (very weak) center tonight. One more night of shear and maybe it would have been poof no more 99L.
Too bad it didn't dissipate with the models still playing around with the Bermuda high..

[floridasun78]

why i getting models run sart on aug 7 not today???

[floridasun78]

Miami weather office still watching 99l put i hear will turn from Bahamas Long term (Saturday night - Wednesday)...the forecast for early
next week remains fairly uncertain as long range models continue
to struggle in showing consistency regarding the progress of a
tropical disturbance north of the Leeward islands. This system is
expected to be just east of the Bahamas early next week, and
should be steered further to the north by a developing trough/cold
front complex across the SE states.

[Nimbus]

Miami weather office still watching 99l put i hear will turn from Bahamas Long term (Saturday night - Wednesday)...the forecast for early
next week remains fairly uncertain as long range models continue
to struggle in showing consistency regarding the progress of a
tropical disturbance north of the Leeward islands. This system is
expected to be just east of the Bahamas early next week, and
should be steered further to the north by a developing trough/cold
front complex across the SE states.

So in Miami they think the polar vortex is going to be in sync with Gert?

http://www.aer.com/science-research/cli ... scillation

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. Conditions are not currently favorable for
development, but the environment could become a little more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend while the
disturbance moves northwestward over the open waters of the western
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

May get a named storm.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.0;-71.5; ... =0QEQYp_5B

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017081100, , BEST, 0, 210N, 620W, 25, 1014, LO

[Steve]

CMC continues to show it developing though slightly weaker than the 12z run by a few mbs. NAM 12km also shows what would at least be a depression toward the end of its run. GFS nada.

[Hammy]

Euro dropped entirely (again).

[Hammy]

I think it's safe to say at this point that nothing will come of this other than the occasional teaser blowup of convection. Maybe 5% chance of development at best.

[ScottNAtlanta]

last several frames its looking much better structurally. The shear is also less than earlier since you have the cirrus fanning off the north end and not blowing off like earlier

[Aric Dunn]

Surface circ is still very well defiend. And overall the system looks even better .

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Conditions should become more favorable, and any organised development will likely be
over the weekend.I would not write off the potential for TD/ TS atm.

[stormreader]

Looks like shear has come down some.. lets see how this reacts..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

Looks like it is reacting in a positive way for development judging from this morning's pic.

[Nimbus]

Should see the low level circ on the western edge of that convection pacing wnw.

Probably some real time imagery of the polar vortex model morphing in the corner of of Stacy Stewarts monitor wall that could tell a story..

[xironman]

Dry air to the west isn't helping it.

[NDG]

Surface vorticity is west of the convection this morning, approximately near 21.8N & 63.8W, IMO.
It is still battling westerly shear from the ULL to its north, but less than a couple of days ago.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 30%-50%

An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands has become a little better
organized since yesterday, but there are no indications of a closed
circulation. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development by the weekend, but dry air aloft could limit
additional development of the thunderstorm activity. This makes
the overall environment only marginally conducive for tropical
cyclone formation. The disturbance is expected to move northwestward
today, then northward over the weekend across the western Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[xironman]

Obviously the wave has passed 41043, as the winds have shifted from NE to SE http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043