ATL: MARIA - Models

['CaneFreak]

Jose Part 2? LOL

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

[Pughetime12]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

So would that make Maria continue to go west or NW? Would that make FL a threat?

[robbielyn]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

Aric can you fix your typos please? i literally didn't understand what you said lol. Thank you

[Aric Dunn]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

Aric can you fix your typos please? i literally didn't understand what you said lol. Thank you

lol im on my phone. it happens.. anyway, no loop something finally swings down to connect with maria.

[Ken711]

If Jose is weaker than the models think in a few days then this is going to hit the SE coastline. Just my opinion there. GFS is close to my thinking, and I believe it will landfall somewhere on the SC coast before it is all said and done. Still a long ways to go though, and plenty of model shifts to come.

I think it will have weakened the ridge enough to make it to at least to NC and landfall anywhere from the Wilmington north to Delaware, with the Outer Banks/VA Beach still a likely landfall. The models at least don't seem to have Maria driving deep into the CONUS, more of a coastal hugger.

[robbielyn]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

Aric can you fix your typos please? i literally didn't understand what you said lol. Thank you

lol im on my phone. it happens.. anyway, no loop something finally swings down to connect with maria.

oh ok. thank you though. It was the loop part i was not getting. Thanks for the clarification.

[Voltron]

If Jose is weaker than the models think in a few days then this is going to hit the SE coastline. Just my opinion there. GFS is close to my thinking, and I believe it will landfall somewhere on the SC coast before it is all said and done. Still a long ways to go though, and plenty of model shifts to come.

I think it will have weakened the ridge enough to make it to at least to NC and landfall anywhere from the Wilmington north to Delaware, with the Outer Banks/VA Beach still a likely landfall. The models at least don't seem to have Maria driving deep into the CONUS, more of a coastal hugger.

At the beginning of this thread it had it driving into wilmington and up through mid state. I do think based in ridging we maysee this original scenario play out. Modles are starting to move west based on better handle of a becoming nonexiatinf jose and lee. That rough has yet to be made and with a HP

[shaneomac]

Wow at the latest gfs brings landfall hurricane in Nova Scotia but not buying it but west trend on the models ?

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[tolakram]

One of the first runs to eliminate Jose after it hits the cold water, so if this continues then it's a question of trough and ridge positioning IMO, and we just don't know this far out yet.

[YoshiMike]

18Z GFS

WAY too close to ECONUS for comfort.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm thinking the Euro has the right idea with a weakening Jose backing into the coast and Maria following him due to some very strong blocking.

Gfs is starting to trend that way.

[Ken711]

One of the first runs to eliminate Jose after it hits the cold water, so if this continues then it's a question of trough and ridge positioning IMO, and we just don't know this far out yet.

Can you point out where the potential trough is on those model runs? Is dropping down from the mid-west?

Thanks

[invest man]

If Jose is weaker than the models think in a few days then this is going to hit the SE coastline. Just my opinion there. GFS is close to my thinking, and I believe it will landfall somewhere on the SC coast before it is all said and done. Still a long ways to go though, and plenty of model shifts to come.

I think it will have weakened the ridge enough to make it to at least to NC and landfall anywhere from the Wilmington north to Delaware, with the Outer Banks/VA Beach still a likely landfall. The models at least don't seem to have Maria driving deep into the CONUS, more of a coastal hugger.[/quote

I kind of thought we'd see a westward shift once models started seeing Jose getting out of the picture. Any idea of strength when it comes close to EC say from Wilmington to Hatteras area? Thanks!

[ronjon]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

Aric can you fix your typos please? i literally didn't understand what you said lol. Thank you

Aric, you still using that 10 year old flip phone without autocorrect?

[Aric Dunn]

I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol

Aric can you fix your typos please? i literally didn't understand what you said lol. Thank you

Aric, you still using that 10 year old flip phone without autocorrect?

haha no.. lol

[ronjon]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

[tpinnola]

I'm thinking the Euro has the right idea with a weakening Jose backing into the coast and Maria following him due to some very strong blocking.

Gfs is starting to trend that way.

I really hope this is not the case. The EURO backs the remains of Jose into the Jersey Coast. If Maria follows suit it would be a bad news for the tri-state area.

[GeneratorPower]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

Prediction: Models shift left so far they show it coming ashore south of Melbourne, FL.

[Ken711]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

CMC and Euro have already started that trend west. Question is how far north does it get before heading in. I think NC/VA border is pretty close to that point. Hopefully, they won't drive inland far.