ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
It seems like people were writing this off as dead a day or two ago, but it's at 80/80 now. At the very least, likely to become a potential tropical cyclone.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271719
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or
Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday.
Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman
Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and
South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to
investigate this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and
portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271719
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or
Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday.
Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman
Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and
South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to
investigate this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and
portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
interesting how South Florida / Keys are not mentioned as getting watches but the NW Bahamas and Western Cuba are? Guess NHC is pretty confident it goes far enough SE of Florida to not be an issue.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:interesting how South Florida / Keys are not mentioned as getting watches but the NW Bahamas and Western Cuba are? Guess NHC is pretty confident it goes far enough SE of Florida to not be an issue.
dont want to cause a alarm they will wait for recon data then decide but something should be up at 5pm for some one
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
At the 2 PM TWO they mentioned that the recon plane is en route but I don't see any data from anywhere that is in flight, strange.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
It looks like they will, at a minimum, declare it PTC 18 at 5 pm. Depending on the Recon, they might go with TD 18 or even TS Philippe.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
NDG wrote:At the 2 PM TWO they mentioned that the recon plane is en route but I don't see any data from anywhere that is in flight, strange.
For some reason, no HDOBs are available. RECCO messages are being released occasionally:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... page=AF307
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
Tomorrow just might be a sunny day if this moves underneath Florida into the Bahamas.
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- ObsessedMiami
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
boca wrote:Tomorrow just might be a sunny day if this moves underneath Florida into the Bahamas.
NWS Miami calling for 90% chance of Heavy rain
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:NDG wrote:At the 2 PM TWO they mentioned that the recon plane is en route but I don't see any data from anywhere that is in flight, strange.
For some reason, no HDOBs are available. RECCO messages are being released occasionally:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... page=AF307
HDOBs are now being released. Missed ones are as well.
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
Surprisingly quiet on this board with something that looks like the below in the position it is in. I am going to assume that the reasons are 1) it probably won't amount to much anyway due to shear north of Cuba 2) it probably will pass east of Florida.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
Your right gatorcane and I'm sure Miami will lower the rain chances too from the current 90%
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
It appears 12Z guidance has an overall slight west mean shift with more ensembles (especially CMC ensembles) taking this through SE Florida/Keys. We'll see what the Euro ensembles show later but the 00Z run showed many ensembles hitting South Florida/Keys.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
If Recon confirms the ASCAT pass, we should have Philippe if there is an LLC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
Why would the NHC not really mention Florida if their in fact a westward shift in the of the models like gatorcane mentioned above?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
boca wrote:Your right gatorcane and I'm sure Miami will lower the rain chances too from the current 90%
Why would they do that if models are calling for 3-4 inches of rain?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
The 3 to 4 inches of rain isn't updated I think later today that total might be lower but I'm at work and only getting some info that this storm will miss us to the SE
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
They found a wind shift near 16.8N & 84.5W, pressures near 1006.5 mb.
185900 1648N 08422W 9597 00419 0066 +225 +215 145009 009 011 000 03
185930 1648N 08423W 9593 00422 0066 +227 +215 121009 009 012 003 03
190000 1648N 08425W 9595 00420 0065 +230 +214 115010 011 014 003 03
190030 1648N 08427W 9597 00418 0065 +230 +214 103012 012 012 001 03
190100 1648N 08429W 9593 00420 0065 +229 +216 096012 012 012 000 00
190130 1648N 08430W 9593 00421 0065 +228 +217 093012 012 012 000 03
185900 1648N 08422W 9597 00419 0066 +225 +215 145009 009 011 000 03
185930 1648N 08423W 9593 00422 0066 +227 +215 121009 009 012 003 03
190000 1648N 08425W 9595 00420 0065 +230 +214 115010 011 014 003 03
190030 1648N 08427W 9597 00418 0065 +230 +214 103012 012 012 001 03
190100 1648N 08429W 9593 00420 0065 +229 +216 096012 012 012 000 00
190130 1648N 08430W 9593 00421 0065 +228 +217 093012 012 012 000 03
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion
very disorganized. Guidance trended a lot stronger today, but I am skeptical at this point
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