ATL: MARIA - Models

[Evenstar]

Recurve away from the US mainland looks likely but definitely not set in stone yet. The ECMWF has it passing just east of the outer banks well within the margin of error at 168-192 hours.

I realize this is the models thread and we aren't supposed to be tossing out throwaway comments here, but as someone who lives in Chesapeake, VA, I am finding the models increasingly disconcerting.

edit: Not being CONUS-centric and ignoring the horrors going on in the Caribbean at the moment. My heart really goes out to them.

[3boover]

No model posts for the 12z GFS?

[sicktght311]

No model posts for the 12z GFS?

Starts running at 11:30 EST. Its only out to Hour 60 right now

[Happy Pelican]

Recurve away from the US mainland looks likely but definitely not set in stone yet. The ECMWF has it passing just east of the outer banks well within the margin of error at 168-192 hours.

I realize this is the models thread and we aren't supposed to be tossing out throwaway comments here, but as someone who lives in Chesapeake, VA, I am finding the models increasingly disconcerting.

I agree. Until I see multiple model agreement on an OTS solution, I'm not letting my guard down. Jersey shore can't take another storm like this.

[sicktght311]

12z GFS looks a little further South and East so far through hour 90

EDIT - much further south. GFS Slows it down considerably through hour 108

[drezee]

Sooooo...GFS...WTH are you doing...it is closing the back door out to sea...trend is not our friend

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The wildcard is Jose. The longer he holds on the further Maria will be steered away from the Eastern Seaboard. If he fills faster, as the present trends indicate, well that would be bad.

[drezee]

Sooooo...GFS...WTH are you doing...it is closing the back door out to sea...trend is not our friend

Is No one seeing this? Left turn is imminent on the model. Western trough digs and sits and allows the ridge to no longer progress. This is a classic pattern.

[RL3AO]

The slow down makes sense. With Jose trending weaker at day 3 with each run, you're seeing weaker mid-level southerly flow. Could give time for the ridge to build in over the top.

[RL3AO]

This was certainly something I was worried about. Weaker and further west Jose -> much less defined weakness between the ridges.

[Fishing]

This was certainly something I was worried about. Weaker and further west Jose -> much less defined weakness between the ridges.

NO NO NO

[RL3AO]

This trough over the Great Lakes still will kick it out to sea, but that was a much slower run. Either way the east coast still needs to watch.

[sicktght311]

Large trough digs down from Canada at the last minute to kick it out just like Jose.

[nasalangley]

CMC takes an Isabel track through the obx area and into the Hampton Roads region.

[ronjon]

12z GEM much faster and up Chesapeake Bay.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017092012&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=0

[northjaxpro]

Absolutely. Do not let your guard down folks, especially the U.S.Mid Atlantic coastal region and points northward!!

[shaneomac]

Landfall in cape breton on the gfs id say as a weak hurricane but 947 mb at hour 210 .. still longs way but something to watch thats 4 runs in row had nova scotia in landfall

['CaneFreak]

Yeah and for whatever reason this model (GFS) is still trying to intensify it or hold it steady for the next 24 hours when that is not going to happen. It's already over the cooler waters.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017092012&fh=6
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017092012&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017092012&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017092012&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0

This was certainly something I was worried about. Weaker and further west Jose -> much less defined weakness between the ridges.

[Stellar]

Recurve away from the US mainland looks likely but definitely not set in stone yet. The ECMWF has it passing just east of the outer banks well within the margin of error at 168-192 hours.

I realize this is the models thread and we aren't supposed to be tossing out throwaway comments here, but as someone who lives in Chesapeake, VA, I am finding the models increasingly disconcerting.

edit: Not being CONUS-centric and ignoring the horrors going on in the Caribbean at the moment. My heart really goes out to them.

Hello, Evenstar, nice to meet you--nervous here in Virginia Beach as well! The trend does not appear to be our friend for this storm...

[3boover]

Here on the Peninsula in Southern VA....i will definitely not let my guard up.