ATL: MARIA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

I'd be more comfortable if the models did show her make landfall day 6-8 than not. I don't like the look of this setup and the NAO is rapidly shifting, which is often a precursor to a big storm.

If the models don't change course over the next two days then I think we can breath easy.

What does the NAO have to do with a precursor to a big storm?

[BYG Jacob]

jose is more east and weaker
maria is also east of the 12z run on the 18z run of the GFS.
trough is about to come in and kick this ots

You are placing way too much faith in the GFS. People have been burned by the GFS countless times.

[gtalum]

jose is more east and weaker
maria is also east of the 12z run on the 18z run of the GFS.
trough is about to come in and kick this ots

You are placing way too much faith in the GFS. People have been burned by the GFS countless times.

It's not just the GFS. It's every model and the NHC.

[Hogweed]

jose is more east and weaker
maria is also east of the 12z run on the 18z run of the GFS.
trough is about to come in and kick this ots

You are placing way too much faith in the GFS. People have been burned by the GFS countless times.

It's not just the GFS. It's every model and the NHC.

Well not every model.

[Voltron]

jose is more east and weaker
maria is also east of the 12z run on the 18z run of the GFS.
trough is about to come in and kick this ots

You are placing way too much faith in the GFS. People have been burned by the GFS countless times.

It's not just the GFS. It's every model and the NHC.

Non of the models should be fully trusted based on the dynamics

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting. I wonder if jose's mid level circ gets decoupled from the low level. Satellite showing a decent continued ne motion .. Recon shows the center in same spot. .. though could just be the center moving erratic from different pulses of convection.

[NJWxHurricane]

jose is more east and weaker
maria is also east of the 12z run on the 18z run of the GFS.
trough is about to come in and kick this ots

You are placing way too much faith in the GFS. People have been burned by the GFS countless times.

not putting faith into it, was just analyzing the run
you are putting too much faith into thinking this will go into the gulf

[BYG Jacob]

jose is more east and weaker
maria is also east of the 12z run on the 18z run of the GFS.
trough is about to come in and kick this ots

You are placing way too much faith in the GFS. People have been burned by the GFS countless times.

not putting faith into it, was just analyzing the run
you are putting too much faith into thinking this will go into the gulf

I don't think its likely she gets into the gulf, I just think she'll be much farther south and west of where the models have her make landfall.

[Voltron]

Just watched Joe Bast. and Crankyweatherguy. Notice the big west wobble after exit of PR? Models are starting to trend W, jose to dissapate by weekend, ridge builds in and the further west the more carolina interior on up potential goes up

[Aric Dunn]

intersting switch to the deep Tab's

[Aric Dunn]

Jose passing east of all but a couple models and still moving... not sure if ti means anything yet.. it will be worth watching if it makes it 67 w

[floridasun78]

Jose passing east of all but a couple models and still moving... not sure if ti means anything yet.. it will be worth watching if it makes it 67 w

we see if woddle but do look moving west or wnw not gaining longitude.

[Aric Dunn]

Jose passing east of all but a couple models and still moving... not sure if ti means anything yet.. it will be worth watching if it makes it 67 w

we see if woddle but do look moving west or wnw not gaining longitude.

What ?

[floridasun78]

Jose passing east of all but a couple models and still moving... not sure if ti means anything yet.. it will be worth watching if it makes it 67 w

we see if woddle but do look moving west or wnw not gaining longitude.

What ?

that not gaining longitude going pass close to Dominican Republic

[Ian2401]

we see if woddle but do look moving west or wnw not gaining longitude.

What ?

that not gaining longitude going pass close to Dominican Republic

I think you mean latitude not longitude

[floridasun78]

What ?

that not gaining longitude going pass close to Dominican Republic

I think you mean latitude not longitude

yes ty

[Kazmit]

According to the NHC she is headed at 310 degrees now, which is definitely NW. Seems to be right on track to me.

[Aric Dunn]

that not gaining longitude going pass close to Dominican Republic

I think you mean latitude not longitude

yes ty

i was talking about jose.. since jose will affect maria.

[pcolaman]

So far GFS. further east

['CaneFreak]

I'm becoming increasingly skeptical that there will be a threat to the CONUS from this tropical cyclone. The guidance that shifted west yesterday afternoon shifted back east overnight with the data from the aircraft. If we see no west trends in the modeling today, I think the US will be safe. Today is a key day. If there is going to be a west shift in the modeling, it will have to happen today. We'll see what happens.