ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070142
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 33 20171007
013230 2219N 08644W 8443 01479 0022 +176 +176 086042 050 044 037 00
013300 2220N 08646W 8403 01525 0021 +180 //// 088039 042 042 019 01
013330 2222N 08647W 8426 01499 0019 +181 //// 090036 039 031 011 01
013400 2223N 08649W 8440 01492 0018 +177 //// 087035 037 017 006 01
013430 2224N 08650W 8435 01496 0013 +181 //// 087039 041 016 005 01
013500 2226N 08652W 8422 01504 0019 +178 //// 085037 039 024 010 01
013530 2227N 08653W 8392 01538 0022 +187 +187 072031 036 051 026 00
013600 2228N 08654W 8442 01480 0016 +192 +192 090016 025 039 064 03
013630 2229N 08656W 8416 01511 0023 +187 +187 086026 038 043 064 03
013700 2231N 08657W 8446 01486 0027 +187 +187 091033 043 047 037 00
013730 2232N 08658W 8446 01484 0023 +190 +190 086035 039 046 030 03
013800 2233N 08700W 8431 01499 0028 +176 //// 084036 037 035 023 05
013830 2235N 08701W 8431 01504 0028 +177 //// 091028 035 031 006 01
013900 2236N 08703W 8427 01508 0026 +187 //// 074022 033 036 010 05
013930 2237N 08704W 8457 01475 0019 +185 //// 085029 033 023 002 05
014000 2238N 08705W 8423 01518 0021 +179 +176 084027 031 022 002 05
014030 2240N 08707W 8428 01511 0021 +180 +171 088026 028 020 004 00
014100 2241N 08708W 8429 01509 0030 +171 //// 094029 029 027 008 05
014130 2242N 08710W 8436 01506 0025 +177 +167 094029 029 022 005 00
014200 2243N 08711W 8424 01519 0024 +179 +166 095031 033 024 003 00
$$
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[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/916479607087517697

[Aric Dunn]

If that convective burst in the nE quad is really starting to wrap around and not an illusion like earlier with the center out running it.. then next couple passes from recon may yield a hurricane..

[Michele B]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/916466895032930304

Wow!

Already?!?!

[StormStalker]

Looks a few degrees to the east, what kind of implications will this have in the latter track?

Concern is a track over the Loop Current.

Also watching a High Theta-E Ridge to the NW.

If the ridge builds in the concern is that Nate will slow down, become more structurally sound, and intensify before landfall, correct?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070152
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 34 20171007
014230 2245N 08712W 8436 01505 0022 +184 +169 097032 034 023 003 00
014300 2246N 08714W 8430 01516 0026 +181 +169 096028 030 017 007 00
014330 2247N 08715W 8423 01521 0032 +174 //// 102030 032 022 007 01
014400 2249N 08717W 8432 01513 0036 +170 +169 103032 033 018 008 00
014430 2250N 08718W 8425 01520 0044 +168 +168 102031 031 022 007 03
014500 2251N 08719W 8430 01517 0043 +174 +174 105027 030 017 010 03
014530 2253N 08718W 8429 01522 0041 +172 //// 109027 028 021 007 01
014600 2253N 08717W 8430 01515 0033 +173 //// 110027 028 021 007 01
014630 2253N 08715W 8430 01516 0032 +174 +171 112028 029 019 005 00
014700 2254N 08714W 8433 01512 0037 +172 +172 110025 027 019 010 00
014730 2255N 08713W 8430 01515 0030 +176 +173 115027 027 020 007 00
014800 2256N 08711W 8429 01513 0028 +178 //// 117025 027 016 006 01
014830 2256N 08711W 8429 01513 0032 +176 //// 117024 025 017 005 01
014900 2257N 08708W 8429 01516 0037 +181 //// 105021 024 018 008 05
014930 2258N 08707W 8425 01522 0045 +182 +182 098027 031 034 036 00
015000 2258N 08706W 8430 01512 0044 +177 +177 105031 032 034 018 00
015030 2259N 08704W 8434 01512 0047 +175 +175 109032 032 034 015 03
015100 2300N 08703W 8425 01521 0045 +173 //// 111032 033 031 009 01
015130 2300N 08701W 8429 01516 0041 +173 //// 111034 035 035 003 01
015200 2300N 08700W 8429 01517 //// +173 //// 110035 036 030 002 05
$$
;

[GCANE]

Looks a few degrees to the east, what kind of implications will this have in the latter track?

Concern is a track over the Loop Current.

Also watching a High Theta-E Ridge to the NW.

If the ridge builds in the concern is that Nate will slow down, become more structurally sound, and intensify before landfall, correct?

That is not a pressure ridge per se.
It is an area of high Theta-E air.
Basically it fuel to fire off strong convection.
If it tracks into increasing strong Theta-E air, rapid intensification is likely.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/916454468111265793

[joey]

Hello is three anything that could happen that will turn Nate ne before it reaches the coast or is this a done deal on where he goes for example if he stall in the next 24 hours could the ne turn happen early thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Hello is three anything that could happen that will turn Nate ne before it reaches the coast or is this a done deal on where he goes for example if he stall in the next 24 hours could the ne turn happen early thanks

yes.. well not really NE... but north before the trough arrives yes..

if the noname system to the western weakens and stretches out faster than the NW to nnw bend in track would be less....but it is running out of time.

[tolakram]

Hello is three anything that could happen that will turn Nate ne before it reaches the coast or is this a done deal on where he goes for example if he stall in the next 24 hours could the ne turn happen early thanks

Hurricane forecasting is never a done deal, but generally if you are outside of the error cone you are better off, inside you may get hit. Be prepared, keep your eye on it until landfall.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070202
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 35 20171007
015230 2300N 08658W 8428 01518 //// +175 //// 110036 036 027 001 01
015300 2301N 08657W 8430 01516 //// +175 //// 107037 038 027 001 01
015330 2301N 08655W 8433 01510 0028 +175 +174 109038 039 028 002 01
015400 2301N 08654W 8428 01517 0030 +174 +173 110038 039 030 001 05
015430 2301N 08652W 8426 01519 0030 +174 +173 111035 037 031 001 00
015500 2301N 08651W 8433 01513 0030 +174 +173 112037 037 031 000 01
015530 2302N 08649W 8428 01520 //// +171 //// 112038 038 030 000 05
015600 2302N 08648W 8432 01513 //// +170 //// 115040 041 034 001 05
015630 2302N 08647W 8429 01515 //// +170 //// 115040 041 035 000 05
015700 2302N 08645W 8430 01514 //// +170 //// 114040 041 033 001 01
015730 2303N 08644W 8426 01517 //// +173 //// 114040 040 033 001 01
015800 2303N 08642W 8432 01512 //// +175 //// 115041 042 035 000 01
015830 2303N 08641W 8429 01513 0026 +175 +173 114042 042 034 000 00
015900 2303N 08641W 8429 01513 0026 +177 +173 115042 043 035 000 03
015930 2303N 08638W 8432 01511 0023 +180 +170 115042 043 034 001 03
020000 2304N 08636W 8426 01519 0022 +184 +169 115041 042 035 000 03
020030 2304N 08635W 8430 01513 0023 +181 +172 113042 043 036 000 03
020100 2304N 08633W 8429 01514 0021 +185 +170 114043 045 037 001 00
020130 2304N 08632W 8430 01513 0022 +182 +175 110043 044 038 001 03
020200 2304N 08631W 8434 01507 0020 +184 +176 111044 045 038 000 00
$$
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[Hurrilurker]

Hello is three anything that could happen that will turn Nate ne before it reaches the coast or is this a done deal on where he goes for example if he stall in the next 24 hours could the ne turn happen early thanks

Storm tracks should NEVER be considered a "done deal". Ever.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the models are over estimating the influence of noname out in the central Gulf and not only with intensity but with pulling it more NNW as Recon keeps pinpointing the center east of NHC forecast points, been that way with both much of the day.

[Aric Dunn]

becasue of that extremelly deep burst the center looks like it might have just been pulled to the right a little .. pulled to the convection..

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hello is three anything that could happen that will turn Nate ne before it reaches the coast or is this a done deal on where he goes for example if he stall in the next 24 hours could the ne turn happen early thanks

Hurricane forecasting is never a done deal, but generally if you are outside of the error cone you are better off, inside you may get hit. Be prepared, keep your eye on it until landfall.

Unless Irma of course (was on the SE coast well outside of the cone) we were clearly better off than the west coast though.

[tolakram]

NOAA radar from about an hour ago.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA through 10:02pm EDT:

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070213
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 36 20171007
020230 2305N 08629W 8426 01517 0023 +178 +174 115046 046 038 000 05
020300 2305N 08628W 8436 01507 0021 +186 +165 116047 047 038 001 03
020330 2305N 08626W 8428 01514 0022 +183 +167 116047 048 040 000 00
020400 2305N 08625W 8429 01513 0022 +181 +169 116047 047 041 001 00
020430 2305N 08624W 8431 01510 0020 +186 +165 118045 047 042 000 03
020500 2306N 08622W 8433 01511 0023 +184 +165 116047 048 042 000 03
020530 2306N 08621W 8424 01519 0024 +180 +170 114047 048 042 000 03
020600 2306N 08619W 8437 01505 0022 +184 +171 113045 047 040 002 00
020630 2306N 08618W 8429 01514 0022 +185 +167 115046 046 040 001 03
020700 2306N 08616W 8430 01514 0023 +185 +167 114046 047 040 001 03
020730 2307N 08615W 8431 01513 0021 +191 +162 115047 047 039 001 00
020800 2307N 08614W 8433 01511 0021 +190 +165 116047 048 040 001 03
020830 2307N 08612W 8428 01517 0021 +188 +166 117050 050 040 000 03
020900 2307N 08611W 8430 01514 0022 +189 +165 118051 051 041 001 03
020930 2308N 08609W 8430 01516 0022 +188 +163 119051 051 042 000 00
021000 2308N 08608W 8429 01514 0023 +189 +162 120051 051 040 001 00
021030 2308N 08607W 8430 01513 0024 +187 +162 120052 053 041 001 00
021100 2308N 08605W 8431 01513 0025 +182 +166 120053 053 039 000 03
021130 2308N 08604W 8426 01518 0025 +181 +168 120054 054 038 000 03
021200 2309N 08603W 8430 01514 0026 +180 +170 120054 054 038 001 00
$$
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[tolakram]

Next pic not complete but this is the latest.