ATL: MARIA - Models

[Vdogg]

Amazingly enough, both the Euro and GFS seem to have come back full circle to their 10 day solution that they gave on September 16th. Impressive if this verifies.

Check out @DaDaBuh's Tweet: https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/9115 ... 34657?s=09

[Alyono]

HMON is back to 74W

[stormreader]

Amazingly enough, both the Euro and GFS seem to have come back full circle to their 10 day solution that they gave on September 16th. Impressive if this verifies.

Check out @DaDaBuh's Tweet: https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/9115 ... 34657?s=09

Not all that unusual, though. One trend I look for is what models say at the 10 day or so timeframe. Often they will totally readjust and eventual landfall is nowhere near that point. Case closed. Upper pattern totally different than previously assumed. However, if after drifting away from that early run, you see the models begin to come back toward that point, then I take that as a strong possibility that the extreme long range solution was on to something, and that there's a decent chance that models will find their way back to that point.

[TheStormExpert]

Significant west shift through 48hrs. on today’s 12z Euro verses yesterday’s 12z run.

[Alyono]

EC a bit east of the 0Z run so far

[stormreader]

Amazingly enough, both the Euro and GFS seem to have come back full circle to their 10 day solution that they gave on September 16th. Impressive if this verifies.

Check out @DaDaBuh's Tweet: https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/9115 ... 34657?s=09

Not all that unusual, though. One trend I look for is what models say at the 10 day or so timeframe. Often they will totally readjust and eventual landfall is nowhere near that point. Case closed. Upper pattern totally different than previously assumed. However, if after drifting away from that early run, you see the models begin to come back toward that point, then I take that as a strong possibility that the extreme long range solution was on to something, and that there's a decent chance that models will find their way back to that point.

That said, I don't think we're quite at the consensus stage just yet, for a close miss. Watch runs next 24-36 hours, do think there is a reasonable chance for that west component and a landfall in the Pamlico Sound area. Will see.

[invest man]

Significant west shift through 48hrs. on today’s 12z Euro verses yesterday’s 12z run.

Looks to fast at 48hrs

[invest man]

I think Euro will trend n then OTS after 72 hrs let's see!

[Vdogg]

I think Euro will trend n then OTS after 72 hrs let's see!

If it's faster I'd think it would come further north first before being kicked OTS.

[stormreader]

Significant west shift through 48hrs. on today’s 12z Euro verses yesterday’s 12z run.

Looks to fast at 48hrs

Quicker approach to coast, I think is bad. Will get there early, nudge up against high, feel some of the influences over the Northern Gom, lower pressure there, too, and tend to nudge west. Would spend a little extra time along the coast of NC (guessing Pamlico Sound area), before being swept offshore. A slower approach gives more chances for just offshore. Quicker, in my opinion, increases chances for the west nudge and landfall.

[Alyono]

recurve. Significant east shift by about 100 miles

[SENClander]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1032 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Closed 500 mb high pressure centered
over Pennsylvania on Sunday will bridge across to the Bermuda
High on Monday. This "bridging" process is occurring earlier
and more strongly than models were thinking several days ago,
and this has led to a westward trend in the predicted path of
Hurricane Maria as it moves northward. Where over the past
several days the storm was expected to follow 70 or 71 degrees
longitude as it passed by the Carolina coast, we`re now thinking
73 or perhaps even 74 degrees longitude is more likely.


Cape Hatteras is a little more than 75 longitude.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think the NE turn will be more gradual than that shown in earlier model runs, as the general trend seems to indicate. It may even occur after a stall.

I don't really think so, Hybrid. Check latest Euro ensemble. All show that the turn NE will be radical and abrupt. I think that is a dangerous sign for the NC coast. I think it increases the liklihood that the storm will carry with it a somewhat more westerly component (and a landfall in NC) before being picked up the the oncoming trough and suddenly pushed out to sea. In other words, the storm really won't feel much of any influence from the trough until late (after the predominant influence of stronger ridging has had its way with Maria) after she has likely been pushed very near to the coast. So I think that a landfall is actually going to continue to gain traction with the models, and we will see them begin to call for that landfall somewhere around Atlantic NC.

I remain skeptical of the sharp turn, but we shall see.

[Vdogg]

I think the NE turn will be more gradual than that shown in earlier model runs, as the general trend seems to indicate. It may even occur after a stall.

I don't really think so, Hybrid. Check latest Euro ensemble. All show that the turn NE will be radical and abrupt. I think that is a dangerous sign for the NC coast. I think it increases the liklihood that the storm will carry with it a somewhat more westerly component (and a landfall in NC) before being picked up the the oncoming trough and suddenly pushed out to sea. In other words, the storm really won't feel much of any influence from the trough until late (after the predominant influence of stronger ridging has had its way with Maria) after she has likely been pushed very near to the coast. So I think that a landfall is actually going to continue to gain traction with the models, and we will see them begin to call for that landfall somewhere around Atlantic NC.

I remain skeptical of the sharp turn, but we shall see.

I've seen a turn like that with storms that come up here before. It happens, not a lot, but it's not particularly uncommon either this time of year with the fronts that roll through.

[OuterBanker]

recurve. Significant east shift by about 100 miles

Yes, on the Euro. Let's see if GFS follows suit. Hope so.

[capepoint]

Yeah, the last one that hit us here was supposed to turn at the last minute and go offshore. It finally turned after landfall.

I think the NE turn will be more gradual than that shown in earlier model runs, as the general trend seems to indicate. It may even occur after a stall.

I don't really think so, Hybrid. Check latest Euro ensemble. All show that the turn NE will be radical and abrupt. I think that is a dangerous sign for the NC coast. I think it increases the liklihood that the storm will carry with it a somewhat more westerly component (and a landfall in NC) before being picked up the the oncoming trough and suddenly pushed out to sea. In other words, the storm really won't feel much of any influence from the trough until late (after the predominant influence of stronger ridging has had its way with Maria) after she has likely been pushed very near to the coast. So I think that a landfall is actually going to continue to gain traction with the models, and we will see them begin to call for that landfall somewhere around Atlantic NC.

I remain skeptical of the sharp turn, but we shall see.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I don't really think so, Hybrid. Check latest Euro ensemble. All show that the turn NE will be radical and abrupt. I think that is a dangerous sign for the NC coast. I think it increases the liklihood that the storm will carry with it a somewhat more westerly component (and a landfall in NC) before being picked up the the oncoming trough and suddenly pushed out to sea. In other words, the storm really won't feel much of any influence from the trough until late (after the predominant influence of stronger ridging has had its way with Maria) after she has likely been pushed very near to the coast. So I think that a landfall is actually going to continue to gain traction with the models, and we will see them begin to call for that landfall somewhere around Atlantic NC.

I remain skeptical of the sharp turn, but we shall see.

I've seen a turn like that with storms that come up here before. It happens, not a lot, but it's not particularly uncommon either this time of year with the fronts that roll through.

I still think there is a real danger of a more gradual turn and as a result, Maria sideswiping Cape Hatteras or at least getting very close to the area.

[Vdogg]

I remain skeptical of the sharp turn, but we shall see.

I've seen a turn like that with storms that come up here before. It happens, not a lot, but it's not particularly uncommon either this time of year with the fronts that roll through.

I still think there is a real danger of a more gradual turn and as a result, Maria sideswiping Cape Hatteras or at least getting very close to the area.

The danger is absolutely there, no doubt. I was just pointing out that these types of turns have happened up here before.

[aperson]

18z GFS west of 12z at tau=48



Looks like on this run Jose has marginally more effect on the ridge than 12z. dprog/dt on Jose weakening finally ending for GFS

[Rail Dawg]

Having just gone through Harvey here in Houston and then chasing Irma in Naples I would go into full prep mode for Maria.

Maria could easily be a Cat 3 landfall on the Outer Banks and then sit for a day before heading out to sea.

I took at least 150 people out of their homes here during the Harvey flood and most were only able to carry 1-2 bags out.

Be ready!