WPAC: NANMADOL - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

EURO kinda drop this system and GFS still not too optimistic about it. Maybe a TD or weak TS at best.

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

Now the subject of a TCFA by the JTWC...

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 135.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 755 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 010056Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 010057Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 17N 124E AND ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT POSITIONED NEAR GUAM. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30 TO 31C AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUICK NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 010625

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 01/0600Z

C. 15.91N

D. 131.13E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[senorpepr]

JMA is now calling 99W a tropical depression as well.

WWJP25 RJTD 010600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 137E 36N 141E
40N 142E 42N 140E 47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 35N 180E 28N
150E 32N 137E 35N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 33N 158E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 57N 174E EAST 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 15N 132E NW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 32N 135E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 56N 152E SW SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 108E TO 30N 114E 32N 116E 35N 127E 38N 138E
35N 148E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 156E TO 28N 160E 35N 165E 35N 170E 38N 180E
39N 169W.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

JTWC has analyzed this area as a high risk, the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. As mentioned earlier, JMA has begun calling it a tropical depression in their warning summary. PAGASA has not begun products on 99W, but, considering it is currently in the PAR, if it upgrades it to a tropical depression, it would be named Emong.

[wxman57]

Looks like it will be torn apart by shear as it passes east of Taiwan Sunday evening.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA now expecting it to become a Tropical Storm...

TD
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 1 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 1 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°50' (16.8°)
E130°10' (130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 2 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°40' (22.7°) E124°35' (124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 011350
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 01/0830Z

C. 16.7N

D. 130.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[euro6208]

Amazing transformation.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 012139

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (E OF LUZON)

B. 01/2100Z

C. 19.88N

D. 127.55E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1831Z 18.37N 128.50E SSMI


LOWE


TXPQ28 KNES 012107
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 19.5N

D. 127.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .4 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 0.5 OVER 6 HRS
DURING THE FIRST 24 HRS OF REDEVELOPMENT

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1831Z 19.0N 128.2E SSMI


...KIM

[1900hurricane]

I'm not seeing enough to upgrade based on microwave alone, but you can certainly see the cyclonic vorticity on two recent passes (one of which I have annotated). ASCAT will be passing by soon, so hopefully that can give us a clearer picture.





If closed, the center appears near 20.4*N, 127.3*E.

[1900hurricane]

The Himawari-8 floater is also currently on the system. I'm digging using RAMMB's SLIDER to view the system.



Also, visible combined with microwave actually does make me want to upgrade 99W.

[1900hurricane]

Hmmm...



Looks like JMA is in the process of naming it Nanmadol, although the track currently disappears if you mouse over it.

[1900hurricane]

Nanmadol indeed.

TS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 2 July 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°40' (20.7°)
E127°05' (127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 2 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°55' (22.9°)
E125°05' (125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°20' (25.3°)
E124°05' (124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°40' (32.7°)
E128°00' (128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°10' (37.2°)
E136°35' (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

[euro6208]

05W is here.

05W NANMADOL 170702 0000 20.7N 126.9E WPAC 30 1005

Edited: to update ATCR.

[1900hurricane]

Just an FYI to whoever updated the thread title, it is spelled Nanmadol, replacing one of the 'm's with an 'n.'

[euro6208]

Previous two Nanmadols became a Cat 4 and 5 and were quite destructive for the Philippines, Taiwan, and China.

Hope it won't be bad this time.

[cycloneye]

Just an FYI to whoever updated the thread title, it is spelled Nanmadol, replacing one of the 'm's with an 'n.'

Fixed it.