07/0600 UTC 11.3N 108.8W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific
Stays low mostly because it is broad without much focused convection near center.
EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical
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Sciencerocks
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
It's a TD. Deep convection firing all over now. This is how I recall EPAC invests and Im glad it broke the norm. Not the choked out messes we've been seeing this far.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 800 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 800 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 55 64 70 69 67 61 55 48
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 42 55 64 70 69 67 61 55 48
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 51 52 49 44 37 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 5 2 1 5 6 6 8 2 5 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 4 3 0
SHEAR DIR 323 326 354 29 17 47 200 184 173 118 199 225 231
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.2 26.8 25.0 24.8 24.0 22.0 20.5 20.2
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 154 148 134 114 108 102 83 67 63
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 73 69 65 56 56 56 55 49 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 20 22 21 21 20 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 33 31 24 28 19 39 24 16 13 42 36
200 MB DIV 64 79 97 103 76 73 43 14 -6 11 -10 -13 -6
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 1070 1116 1132 1127 1101 986 803 857 955 891 769 733 914
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.3 14.3 16.9 18.5 18.5 19.4 21.8 24.0 24.5
LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.2 111.7 112.0 112.2 112.6 114.3 117.1 118.6 118.7 119.1 121.0 123.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 7 14 16 12 3 9 14 13 11
HEAT CONTENT 42 47 49 44 34 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 25. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 11. 11. 8. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 30. 39. 45. 44. 42. 36. 30. 23.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 110.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.6% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 20.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 21.7% 12.7% 9.0% 4.0% 34.4% 46.3% 9.4%
Bayesian: 0.7% 7.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.2% 0.5%
Consensus: 1.2% 18.3% 11.7% 3.2% 1.3% 19.9% 23.0% 3.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 55 64 70 69 67 61 55 48
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 42 55 64 70 69 67 61 55 48
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 51 52 49 44 37 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 5 2 1 5 6 6 8 2 5 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 4 3 0
SHEAR DIR 323 326 354 29 17 47 200 184 173 118 199 225 231
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.2 26.8 25.0 24.8 24.0 22.0 20.5 20.2
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 154 148 134 114 108 102 83 67 63
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 73 69 65 56 56 56 55 49 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 20 22 21 21 20 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 33 31 24 28 19 39 24 16 13 42 36
200 MB DIV 64 79 97 103 76 73 43 14 -6 11 -10 -13 -6
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 1070 1116 1132 1127 1101 986 803 857 955 891 769 733 914
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.3 14.3 16.9 18.5 18.5 19.4 21.8 24.0 24.5
LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.2 111.7 112.0 112.2 112.6 114.3 117.1 118.6 118.7 119.1 121.0 123.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 7 14 16 12 3 9 14 13 11
HEAT CONTENT 42 47 49 44 34 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 25. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 11. 11. 8. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 30. 39. 45. 44. 42. 36. 30. 23.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 110.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.6% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 20.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 21.7% 12.7% 9.0% 4.0% 34.4% 46.3% 9.4%
Bayesian: 0.7% 7.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.2% 0.5%
Consensus: 1.2% 18.3% 11.7% 3.2% 1.3% 19.9% 23.0% 3.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Looking really really good! Possible upgrade by 8 am PDT?
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Yellow Evan
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Not sure it's there yet.-
Sciencerocks
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
The Circulation and convective pattern appears to be quite a bit "tighter" and better defined this morning compared to last night. Probably closer to being upgraded within my opinion...Also take a look at the northwestern and southeastern side of the storm with the "higher level" cirrus. That my friend appears to be polar and equatorial outflow "channels" as the system appears to be just to the west of an anti-cyclone...That is awesome for strengthening once it can develop that core and remain within that set-up.
95E
Now I'll add the shear...The core appears to have 8-14 knots depending if you're talking about the western or eastern side with the outflow channels having upwards of 25 knots. Like to see the anti-cyclone refocus a little more centered over the cyclone in order to drop the shear and with a nice blow up of convection near the center the lower level convergence should allow for increase of divergence to allow that.
95E
Now I'll add the shear...The core appears to have 8-14 knots depending if you're talking about the western or eastern side with the outflow channels having upwards of 25 knots. Like to see the anti-cyclone refocus a little more centered over the cyclone in order to drop the shear and with a nice blow up of convection near the center the lower level convergence should allow for increase of divergence to allow that.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:16 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Not sure it's there yet.
They don't have to reach moderate TS status to be upgraded. Well defined llc and lots of convrction with a great structure.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Sciencerocks wrote:Now I'll add the shear...The core appears to have 8-14 knots depending if you're talking about the western or eastern side with the outflow channels having upwards of 25 knots. Like to see the anti-cyclone refocus a little more centered over the cyclone in order to drop the shear and with a nice blow up of convection near the center the lower level convergence should allow for increase of divergence to allow that.
In this case, it's the outflow itself that's causing the shear there. The winds at 200mb are strong poleward and equatorward in those spots. When you then subtract the mean 850 mb flow, you get "high shear" where the outflow channels are.
If you average out the atmosphere in a box surrounding the system, you get a mean sounding like this. Almost no shear. It's in a very favorable environment.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
100%
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized during the past
several hours. A tropical depression appears to be forming, and
advisories will be initiated this afternoon. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized during the past
several hours. A tropical depression appears to be forming, and
advisories will be initiated this afternoon. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: 11 AM PDT TWO=100%
Well, this is it! 
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1900hurricane
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
If 95E can become a major hurricane, it will be the first Northern Hemisphere major of the year.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
1900hurricane wrote:If 95E can become a major hurricane, it will be the first Northern Hemisphere major of the year.
It'll be the first cat 2 in the NH this year. *
* Pending the best track update from Dora.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
110kts @ 976mb? Interesting.
This reminds me of the invests we used to see in 2015 during the super ElNino. You just know it will bomb out.
This reminds me of the invests we used to see in 2015 during the super ElNino. You just know it will bomb out.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
It has that comma shape, which I don't find authentically pleasing, but it's classifiable at this point, and likely to become at least a minimal hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Yellow Evan wrote:It has that comma shape, which I don't find authentically pleasing, but it's classifiable at this point, and likely to become at least a minimal hurricane.
The "fist" look is interesting to say the least. If convection can wrap into the core it can RI a lot better than those convective CDO blobs
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
EP, 95, 2017070718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1108W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
No upgrade lol. Sheesh... The way it's developing - it'll have a mid level eye before the NHC starts to issue advisories.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48
V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 78 80 73 61 50 41 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 1 2 2 4 4 3 2 5 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 1 -1 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 316 348 33 164 207 155 163 187 175 131 240 269 244
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 25.5 23.9 22.7 22.0 21.2 20.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 149 141 135 118 101 88 80 72 60
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 69 65 63 58 57 53 53 49 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 21 23 23 22 20 20 17 15
850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 40 32 34 34 32 36 20 29 37 30 20
200 MB DIV 81 99 99 73 66 56 42 29 10 3 -12 -19 0
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1063 1072 1086 1091 1093 1011 941 894 845 826 815 766 742
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 43 41 34 26 21 20 13 1 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 45. 41. 35. 29. 21. 13.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 110.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 10.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.31 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 4.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 45.8% 37.0% 29.1% 21.2% 40.4% 39.9% 11.7%
Logistic: 18.5% 53.7% 42.6% 35.3% 20.5% 71.2% 65.7% 15.3%
Bayesian: 13.7% 62.2% 27.3% 13.4% 4.3% 11.0% 8.2% 1.1%
Consensus: 17.9% 53.9% 35.6% 25.9% 15.3% 40.8% 37.9% 9.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48
V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 78 80 73 61 50 41 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 1 2 2 4 4 3 2 5 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 1 -1 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 316 348 33 164 207 155 163 187 175 131 240 269 244
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 25.5 23.9 22.7 22.0 21.2 20.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 149 141 135 118 101 88 80 72 60
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 69 65 63 58 57 53 53 49 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 21 23 23 22 20 20 17 15
850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 40 32 34 34 32 36 20 29 37 30 20
200 MB DIV 81 99 99 73 66 56 42 29 10 3 -12 -19 0
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1063 1072 1086 1091 1093 1011 941 894 845 826 815 766 742
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 43 41 34 26 21 20 13 1 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 45. 41. 35. 29. 21. 13.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 110.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 10.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.31 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 4.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 45.8% 37.0% 29.1% 21.2% 40.4% 39.9% 11.7%
Logistic: 18.5% 53.7% 42.6% 35.3% 20.5% 71.2% 65.7% 15.3%
Bayesian: 13.7% 62.2% 27.3% 13.4% 4.3% 11.0% 8.2% 1.1%
Consensus: 17.9% 53.9% 35.6% 25.9% 15.3% 40.8% 37.9% 9.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Time is not on it's side.
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