EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

This is going fast to deveiop before it was forecast by early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[gatorcane]

This looks like a large system that is for sure:

[RL3AO]

Looks very good this morning. I'd expect this one to intensify fairly quickly.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...AND YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

[hurricanes1234]

Well, that escalated pretty fast.

[gatorcane]

Snippet from NHC discussion:

This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during
this very busy July.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate
that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few
days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective
organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression.
The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is
estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of
a developing cyclonically curved band. Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and
1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental
conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most
of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the
official forecast which follows the consensus quite close.

The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent
deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not
expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general
track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days.
The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope
and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.

This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during
this very busy July.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 9.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 10.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Ntxw]

GFS quickly turns this into a hurricane by Tues-Weds. RI odds for this one should be well up there

[gatorcane]

GFS quickly turns this into a hurricane by Tues-Weds. RI odds for this one should be well up there

12Z GFS is more intense and look at this RI between hours 78 and 102. Saved animated GIF below:

[gatorcane]

Down to 940MB at hour 126.

[cycloneye]

935 mbs for next Thursday.

[cycloneye]

Will this Tropical Cyclone surpass the Fernanda ACE units total? ( 28.56 as of 15z advisory) I say it has a chance if all goes perfect on the enviroment and track.

[cycloneye]

Wow,12z GFS tracks it parallell to Baja California instead of going more west.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sold on Cat 5 yet. Although I like how far east this is...

[gatorcane]

I actually thought this one may be the BIG one for the EPAC this season and possibly make a run at a CAT 5. Let's see what the upcoming ECMWF has.

The GFS IR simulation graphics shows an absolute monster.

[cycloneye]

HWRF-Para at 126 hours.

[CaliforniaResident]

Hillary's projected track looks somewhat similar to Dolores and Linda from 2015. Hopefully, she will peak as a cat 4 or 5 while staying well out to sea and then as she weakens and dissipates, her remnants will recurve right into Southern California to give us some beneficial rains to help quell the wildfires out here.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has almost same track that GFS has until 18N where it curves west and is almost over Socorro Island.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NINE EP092017 07/21/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 39 42 49 58 66 75 81 83 86 90
V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 39 42 49 58 66 75 81 83 86 90
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 36 37 39 42 47 55 64 75 85 93
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 3 3 4 2 2 8 8 2 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 12 9 5 0 -1 0 -4 -7 0 0 2
SHEAR DIR 63 199 291 332 338 345 220 191 108 114 89 36 39
SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 151 153 157 158 158 154 154 153 151 138
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 69 70 76 78 80 80 78 75 74 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 18 21 22 25 30
850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 38 31 14 16 12 10 3 9 0 8 24
200 MB DIV 6 14 13 5 34 46 94 108 105 100 76 63 77
700-850 TADV 5 4 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -6
LAND (KM) 641 675 700 677 660 595 515 472 460 482 528 662 732
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.8 10.1 11.2 12.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 94.1 95.3 96.5 97.6 98.8 100.5 101.9 103.5 105.3 106.9 108.5 110.5 112.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 18 14 10 10 11 17 42 36 16 25 24 17 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 12. 15. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 19. 28. 36. 45. 51. 53. 56. 60.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.9 94.1

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/21/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 7.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 30.1% 22.0% 18.1% 0.0% 22.5% 21.3% 41.8%
Logistic: 22.5% 74.4% 58.5% 26.4% 14.2% 67.1% 69.6% 73.7%
Bayesian: 0.7% 13.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 4.2% 8.9%
Consensus: 13.3% 39.2% 28.0% 15.2% 4.9% 30.4% 31.7% 41.5%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/21/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##