ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

I'm a bit surprised the chances aren't listed higher--this looks like it's trying to organize a bit already despite it's location.

[stormlover2013]

La to Mexico

[wxman57]

Could become a hurricane threat to TX. For now, I'm going with TS into NE Mexico. Fair chance it could become a TD east of the Yucatan. Good chance of at least a TS in the SW Gulf by Wednesday (beyond the NHC's 120hr forecast period).

[floridasun78]

who woke up tropical some saying season was bust with short live system

[Sciencerocks]

who woke up tropical some saying season was bust with short live system

August is magical

[Blown Away]

Am I correct the GFS shows nothing with 90L??

Edit, looks like weak low Mexico landfall at 216 hours on 12z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty huge EPS support, around 35/51 members. Solutions range from southern BoC to Central LA.

The stronger members are the more northern ones into Texas. How quick this develops will determine its outcome. Kudos to the EPS for sniffing this out well in advance.

[Siker]

Am I correct the GFS shows nothing with 90L??

It's showed a depression/weak TS in the BoC on a few runs, but nothing consistent and not nearly as well defined as the Euro.

[SoupBone]

Could become a hurricane threat to TX. For now, I'm going with TS into NE Mexico. Fair chance it could become a TD east of the Yucatan. Good chance of at least a TS in the SW Gulf by Wednesday (beyond the NHC's 120hr forecast period).

When you say Texas, are you referring to the whole state? If so, what would have to happen to make that happen?

[Blown Away]

Am I correct the GFS shows nothing with 90L??

It's showed a depression/weak TS in the BoC on a few runs, but nothing consistent and not nearly as well defined as the Euro.

Euro blows up 90L, GFS very weak to basically nothing!

GFS blows up 99L, Euro very weak!

True model war here...

[Kingarabian]

Am I correct the GFS shows nothing with 90L??

It's showed a depression/weak TS in the BoC on a few runs, but nothing consistent and not nearly as well defined as the Euro.

Euro blows up 90L, GFS very weak to basically nothing!

GFS blows up 99L, Euro very weak!

True model war here...

I think they're independent of each other, as the previous 12z Euro showed the BOC system and the Cape Verde system as well.

GFS has higher shear in the WCaribb compared to the Euro.

[tarheelprogrammer]

who woke up tropical some saying season was bust with short live system

Nothing strong has formed yet. Still in wait and see mode.

[stormreader]

Watch out for increased signs of organization with this one. If it starts to develop sooner than expected (and trend stronger in the models), the more likely S TX is to be impacted.

Agree.

[NDG]

Looking at the 12z Euro through wunderground it closes off a weak circulation with 90L Sunday afternoon north of Honduras, it maintains the anticyclone on top of it through its track through the southern GOM.

[stormreader]

[img[/img]

La to Mexico

Never know, but La might be pushing it a bit. Like your thought though, at this early stage (looking at the broadest possible picture). Narrowing it down some, if you get a decent tropical system in the southern Gulf then south Texas might be the bet. It is early though.

[Nimbus]

Does look like it is organizing in those last few sunset frames.
The upper air environment looked unusually favorable for that area of the Caribbean.
Mexico to NOLA in the model runs so should be interesting to watch.

[stormlover2013]

Euro latest runs has ridge eroding last couple of runs, stronger system will go more north

[stormreader]

who woke up tropical some saying season was bust with short live system

You're right, tropics are very much alive. Looks like if you just put a couple of t-storms together in gulf then chance of development. That was an unusual north-south shear that prevented the last system from developing. In the E Carib this system is way ahead of schedule as it fights the too quick forward motion. Definitely going to have something out of E Atlantic system. Think it's going to be an active season at Storm 2k.

[stormreader]

Euro latest runs has ridge eroding last couple of runs, stronger system will go more north

Thanks. Didn't know that. I don't access the models, myself. I depend on this site for that info. My gut instinct (without models) would favor S Texas. It is early.

[RL3AO]

who woke up tropical some saying season was bust with short live system

Nothing strong has formed yet. Still in wait and see mode.

We could get two hurricanes this week and you'd probably post about it being an underwheming week since neither became a major.