ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS has a 996mb storm landfalling in Miami. Surprised there are no TS warnings for SE Florida.

[gatorcane]

Also the GFS ensembles have shifted west with most landfalling now in South Florida. I think a TS warning for SE Florida and Keys should go up.

[wjs3]

I'm floored...FLOORED... that there aren't at least watches up for S Fla. That seems prudent to me. Maybe not totally needed, but prudent.

[jlauderdal]

Also the GFS ensembles have shifted west with most landfalling now in South Florida. I think a TS warning for SE Florida and Keys should go up.

nhc not issuing anything and nws no go on flood watches, we will know in the next 12-18 if they made the right call...ultimately doesnt really matter except to verify their forecast

[wjs3]

Also the GFS ensembles have shifted west with most landfalling now in South Florida. I think a TS warning for SE Florida and Keys should go up.

At least something. Even if it doesn't verify, there seems to be as much risk to SE FLA as there is to the central Bahamas, who are under watch right now. Don't get it. I'm going to a swim meet today that probably would be cancelled if there was a watch/warning up--and frankly should be given the weather we're looking at. It almost certainly won't be.

[boca]

The NHC said that most of the winds are on the east side of the storm that's why no watches or warnings

[ObsessedMiami]

I’m sure there are considerations to issuing TS warnings to local planning etc but it is a mystery to me why there is no flood watch

[jlauderdal]

you folks are really itching for some late season watches/warnings..i think your best shot will be flash flood warnings after 4 pm when conditions are maximized...its a small window..the moisture is really surging from the south on radar so lets see if things can come together for your warnings...what's really interesting is two formidable cold fronts in less than a week in october..did we have two all of last season?

[boca]

Hey jlauderdale this is the wrong thread but I think these past two cold fronts are more of because the NAO is negative. We are in a La Niña which means drier and warmer for Florida.I think we will be dealing with the SE ridge this winter blocking the cold fronts unfortunately.I don't want to get in trouble with this thread so this storm 18 will be a quick rain no big deal.

[jlauderdal]

Hey jlauderdale this is the wrong thread but I think these past two cold fronts are more of because the NAO is negative. We are in a La Niña which means drier and warmer for Florida.I think we will be dealing with the SE ridge this winter blocking the cold fronts unfortunately.I don't want to get in trouble with this thread so this storm 18 will be a quick rain no big deal.

we should rename this the se florida thread since we are the only ones on here today, lol

[caneman]

Hey jlauderdale this is the wrong thread but I think these past two cold fronts are more of because the NAO is negative. We are in a La Niña which means drier and warmer for Florida.I think we will be dealing with the SE ridge this winter blocking the cold fronts unfortunately.I don't want to get in trouble with this thread so this storm 18 will be a quick rain no big deal.

I would like to discuss this 2. I don't remember getting two formidable cold fronts like this so,early. I prefer the warmer winters. Are we in fact in La Niña? Can someone post a link where this is being discussed? Thanks

[caneman]

The NHC said that most of the winds are on the east side of the storm that's why no watches or warnings

Irregardless if they are forecasted to get the winds or not, if they get an llc, I would think watches and warnings should be issued.

[wxman57]

Recon and satellite indicate weakening since last evening. Winds west of the weak LLC are 10-15 kts. Shear is driving all squalls east of the weak center. I think it may have been a TS last evening, but certainly not this morning. It's going to be hard for it to organize in the increasing shear north of Cuba. I don't see any significant risk of TS wind in SE FL - even if the center moved directly over Miami. Any TS wind would be well east of the center.

[NDG]

Hey jlauderdale this is the wrong thread but I think these past two cold fronts are more of because the NAO is negative. We are in a La Niña which means drier and warmer for Florida.I think we will be dealing with the SE ridge this winter blocking the cold fronts unfortunately.I don't want to get in trouble with this thread so this storm 18 will be a quick rain no big deal.

I would like to discuss this 2. I don't remember getting two formidable cold fronts like this so,early. I prefer the warmer winters. Are we in fact in La Niña? Can someone post a link where this is being discussed? Thanks

Two things why we are getting a second strong cold front pass through the FL Peninsula, a slight negative NAO and a positive PNA. With the PNA forecasted to go way negative this quick shot of cool air will be a thing of the past a week from now with mid to upper 80s returning to the Peninsula in the 5-14 day range, if not longer.

[NDG]

I think that there's a new LLC forming to the south of Isle of Youth, near 20.2N & 83W, lets see what the recon finds in this area.

[NDG]

Recon and satellite indicate weakening since last evening. Winds west of the weak LLC are 10-15 kts. Shear is driving all squalls east of the weak center. I think it may have been a TS last evening, but certainly not this morning. It's going to be hard for it to organize in the increasing shear north of Cuba. I don't see any significant risk of TS wind in SE FL - even if the center moved directly over Miami. Any TS wind would be well east of the center.

That's what the GFS and HWRF have been indicating since yesterday that even if this system organizes into a strong TS after it passes Cuba the TS force winds will be to the south and east of the COC.

[NDG]

Heavy rains is definitely a threat for south FL especially when the trough & cold front interacts later today with all this tropical moisture moving north. IMO.

[NDG]

Recon is heading towards my suspect area where I think the LLC is re-forming or forming, lower pressures found towards that area.

131130 2031N 08245W 9900 00136 0054 +253 +248 129017 018 016 002 03
131200 2030N 08245W 9903 00133 0053 +253 +248 121017 017 009 004 03
131230 2028N 08246W 9904 00130 0052 +255 +249 116016 017 012 003 00
131300 2027N 08246W 9903 00131 0051 +252 +249 118017 018 020 000 05
131330 2026N 08247W 9899 00131 0049 +252 +250 111012 016 016 001 05

[NDG]

Recon confirms my suspect area of a developing LLC, pressure near 1005 mb.


131400 2024N 08247W 9905 00127 0049 +252 +251 125006 009 011 002 05
131430 2023N 08248W 9905 00127 0050 +255 +253 192006 007 013 001 05
131500 2021N 08248W 9901 00133 0049 +257 +252 233010 011 011 002 03
131530 2020N 08249W 9906 00127 0050 +254 +250 250013 015 015 001 05
131600 2018N 08249W 9901 00135 //// +248 //// 272019 021 021 001 05
131630 2017N 08250W 9901 00135 0054 +250 +247 277018 021 014 003 01
131700 2016N 08251W 9904 00133 0055 +250 +245 276017 018 017 001 03

[wxman57]

Looks less organized than it was last evening. Certainly no TD now, and no more TS winds.