ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Someone mentioned a mudslide or other issue with that river gauge...and I do question the accuracy. No doubt flooding is going to be a huge legacy with this system but I can't help but wonder if we're getting some erroneous data on some of those. OTOH...a landslide could create a "dam" that eventually gives way catastrophically and yields a huge wall of water downstream. I guess we'll just need to wait for conditions to improve. Heavy rain is certain to remain a huge problem. Just look at the feeder bands setting up east of the center. those will eventually be dragged westward across the island and it will be an upslope flow over the southern half of the island. As the winds begin to subside, flash flooding and mudslides will remain a huge threat to life and property island wide.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/910532412383342593

[shah83]

What about Rio HOndo?

[sunnyday]

Local met just used the words "all clear" for So Fl., saying Maria will be 500 to 600 miles to the east as it passes by.

[AutoPenalti]

Local met just used the words "all clear" for So Fl., saying Maria will be 500 to 600 miles to the east as it passes by.

I guess by now, we should be clear. Unless, it keeps its heading for another 3 days...

[GCANE]

Maria's core 2.5 hrs ago.
Very healthy for being over land.
May hit the water running.

[LesKat]

Has anyone seen anything come out about how Camuy is ? My neighbor has a great dear friend there we have been unable to reach for some time, obviously.

[sweetpea]

Has anyone seen anything come out about how Camuy is ? My neighbor has a great dear friend there we have been unable to reach for some time, obviously.

I have been looking also for something out of Salinas, not seeing anything

[Fishing]

Does anyone have any information on Barranquitas Puerto Rico. HC-02 box 6623. Asking for a friend who’s very concerned.

[PandaCitrus]

Damage to San Juan international Airport.  https://twitter.com/radioislatv/status/910544940580687873

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/B911Nature/status/910550207007461381

[Sanibel]

We don't have radar but I think the center is stepping off the coast now...

[WxGuy1]

We don't have radar but I think the center is stepping off the coast now...

Satellite data seem to indicate that the center of circulation is now back over water, though the lack of a well-defined eye and some asymmetry near the center makes it difficult to see using satellite data -- http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

Infrared loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-24-1-100

[Tireman4]

From NWS San Juan

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201609
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1209 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...Major Hurricane Maria producing widespread and dangerous
flash flooding across Puerto Rico. Major flooding occurring along
the Rio Grande de Loiza, Rio Grande de Manati and La Plata basins.
Dangerous winds will continue through this evening across mainland
PR. The center of Maria should be exiting the north coast of
Puerto Rico shortly and the strongest hurricane storm force winds
should spread along the north central and northwest portions of
Puerto Rico through late this afternoon. Although, tropical storm
force winds could diminish this evening across the USVI and
portions of southeastern PR...outer bands of Maria with strong
thunderstorms will move across these areas. Currently, scattered
thunderstorms with frequent lighting are being observed along the
eastern coastal waters of the USVI.


&&


.AVIATION...Sustained Hurricane and tropical storm force winds
will continue for the next several hours across the PR and USVI
terminals...IFR/LIFR condtions expected to prevail for much of the
forecast period. Check with authorities for airport closures.


&&

.MARINE...Tropical storm force winds will likely continue across
the Caribbean waters through this afternoon and Hurricane force
winds across the Atlantic waters through late tonight. There is no
chance of a successful passage through this storm.

[PandaCitrus]

The major of San Juan said half of the city is flooded and they expected electricity to be out 4 to 6 months.

 https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/910522454430404608

[HenkL]

Recon couldn't pinpoint center yet.

[RL3AO]

NHC archive so far. Excellent track. By Monday morning, the forecast called for a cat 4 landfall in Puerto Rico.

[dhweather]

Has anyone heard from Luis?

[Fountainguy97]

NHC archive so far. Excellent track. By Monday morning, the forecast called for a cat 4 landfall in Puerto Rico.

To be fair the 5 day model consensus was extremely high. So not the most difficult track ever. No guess work for them up to this point.

Great work!

[CrazyC83]

Looking through the recent data, I would probably go with 90 kt for the current intensity and a pressure of 956mb.