ATL: IRMA - Models

[cycloneye]

The bend to WSW is shown clearly by many of the models.

[stormreader]

Ah the magic trap door which has kept the US major hurricane free for 4 days...

Looks like our streak may end again.

When it rains, it pours!

[RL3AO]

This is a fun forecast IMO where a soon to be TD whose steering currents next week will be significantly impacted by a recurving typhoon right now in the Pacific. Some of you guys are too hard on the models. This is really complex stuff.

[sma10]

This is a fun forecast IMO where a soon to be TD whose steering currents next week will be significantly impacted by a recurving typhoon right now in the Pacific. Some of you guys are too hard on the models. This is really complex stuff.

Yes, precisely.
The fact that we are even having any serious discussion at all on a wave developing at 16N 25W is fascinating. The old rule of thumb was that if something forming at the Cape Verdes had any northerly component, then wave bye-bye.

Perhaps the models are teasing, but we have a chance to see something pretty rare with this setup - only Ike comes to mind - a long tracker at fairly high latitude.

[ColdMiser123]

Once again, a very strong signal from the Euro ensembles. Many impact United States directly.

[sma10]

Once again, a very strong signal from the Euro ensembles. Many impact United States directly.

Where are the ensembles clustered? Is it more of a westerly Florida strike or a sweeping Carolina-type swipe?

[cycloneye]

Euro 12z Ensembles

[ColdMiser123]

Once again, a very strong signal from the Euro ensembles. Many impact United States directly.

Where are the ensembles clustered? Is it more of a westerly Florida strike or a sweeping Carolina-type swipe?

Large spread after a very tight cluster at D6-7. Many have very deep systems. There are landfalls from Key West to the SE Coast, to Boston, to Maine. Many members take it through Bahamas.

[sma10]

Once again, a very strong signal from the Euro ensembles. Many impact United States directly.

Where are the ensembles clustered? Is it more of a westerly Florida strike or a sweeping Carolina-type swipe?

Large spread after a very tight cluster at D6-7. Many have very deep systems. There are landfalls from Key West to the SE Coast, to Boston, to Maine. Many members take it through Bahamas.

Thanks -
Obviously the very wide spray after D7 speaks to how complex the trough setup will be. I guess it's going to be a lot of living and dying with model runs the next week.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The good thing is there is plenty of time to watch it. It is very close but as of this moment we don't have a TD or Storm, and as we have all seen the models this far out are a guessing game. Granted they do provide clues to what the environmental setup may be down the road, and which direction the storm may go. So we watch wait and see, how strong it gets, does it take the dive to the SW or WSW, if that indeed does happen then we have a problem on our hands.

[KWT]

This is a fun forecast IMO where a soon to be TD whose steering currents next week will be significantly impacted by a recurving typhoon right now in the Pacific. Some of you guys are too hard on the models. This is really complex stuff.

Made even more complex by a tropical system in the western gulf on quite a few of the models now around 144-168hrs which would also feed direct energy into the upper trough/low over the US.

With that being said, I expect the initial conditions to be modeled somewhat accurately, the GFS in particular had a dogs dinner with its analysis of 93L at 12z compared to reality. Those sorts of mistakes can be the difference.

[blp]

That SW motion is going to be quite interesting. I think the degree of that movement will be critical for any impact with the islands and down the road. The SW motion could be gradual and short term or it could be pronounced and long term. That is not a movement I think the models typically have a good handle on.

[blp]

UKMET has the SW motion as well.

[KWT]

That SW motion is going to be quite interesting. I think the degree of that movement will be critical for any impact with the islands and down the road. The SW motion could be gradual and short term or it could be pronounced and long term. That is not a movement I think the models typically have a good handle on.

Its certainly looking fairly pronounced on the models, gotta say the track *direction* is VERY similar to Ike with that WNW, then WSW and then eventually back to WNW again.

Pretty unusual set-up to get a CV system upto 20N and get it down enough to be a risk to the Caribbean (though I think that is something of a long shot still.)

By the way I can't see how the ECM doesn't recurve away post 240hrs, the frontal system is right on the coast and unless there is a small ridge extension which bends the system due west again its going to get far enough to turn around 75W. Close but not quite with that run.

PS, the UKMO also has that little tropical distrubance in the far south of the gulf, that is going to cause major model headaches I fear!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

It will be interesting to see what the GFS run show this evening.

[ace]

Is there a separate thread yet on a potential spin up in the Bay of Campeche next week?

[jlauderdal]

It will be interesting to see what the GFS run show this evening.

somehwere close to miami

[blp]

It will be interesting to see what the GFS run show this evening.

somehwere close to miami

Yeah I can't remember seeing a Get Florida Storm Run from this new version of the GFS. I think it is due.

[artist]

Is there a separate thread yet on a potential spin up in the Bay of Campeche next week?

It's being discussed in the global models thread here-
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118543&p=2615572#p2615572

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/902640401676427264