EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Even SAB agrees on a depression:

TXPZ28 KNES 071839
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 11.7N

D. 110.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/d0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A DT=1.5 WAS DERIVED BASED ON 3/10 BANDING ON A LOGARITHMIC
SPIRAL. THE MET=1.5 AND THE PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SANDUSKY

[Kingarabian]

Time is not on it's side.

I believe its minimum is what the GFS and the Euro are showing. A strong cat.1 - cat.2 storm. Its peak which I believe should be attainable is a cat.3 - cat. 4 major.

[Yellow Evan]

Technically speaking, the original intent of Dvorak was for T2.0=TD and T1.0/T1.5 to be invests.

[RL3AO]

No upgrade lol. Sheesh... The way it's developing - it'll have a mid level eye before the NHC starts to issue advisories.

I still bet they start them at 21z.

[cycloneye]

RI index has gone up.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48
V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 78 80 73 61 50 41 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 1 2 2 4 4 3 2 5 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 1 -1 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 316 348 33 164 207 155 163 187 175 131 240 269 244
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 25.5 23.9 22.7 22.0 21.2 20.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 149 141 135 118 101 88 80 72 60
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 69 65 63 58 57 53 53 49 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 21 23 23 22 20 20 17 15
850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 40 32 34 34 32 36 20 29 37 30 20
200 MB DIV 81 99 99 73 66 56 42 29 10 3 -12 -19 0
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1063 1072 1086 1091 1093 1011 941 894 845 826 815 766 742
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 43 41 34 26 21 20 13 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 45. 41. 35. 29. 21. 13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 110.8

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 10.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.31 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 4.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 45.8% 37.0% 29.1% 21.2% 40.4% 39.9% 11.7%
Logistic: 18.5% 53.7% 42.6% 35.3% 20.5% 71.2% 65.7% 15.3%
Bayesian: 13.7% 62.2% 27.3% 13.4% 4.3% 11.0% 8.2% 1.1%
Consensus: 17.9% 53.9% 35.6% 25.9% 15.3% 40.8% 37.9% 9.4%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Technically speaking, the original intent of Dvorak was for T2.0=TD and T1.0/T1.5 to be invests.

Well this is where Dvorak is a let down. It has a closed LLC and enough winds to support an upgrade. If recon goes into it, that's what they would find. And so satellite and scatterometer data show that, sufficiently.

The criteria for classifying a system was never to be dependent on an algorithm when there's enough proof. This is some JTWC/CPHC type stuff.

[Yellow Evan]

Technically speaking, the original intent of Dvorak was for T2.0=TD and T1.0/T1.5 to be invests.

Well this is where Dvorak is a let down. It has a closed LLC and enough winds to support an upgrade. If recon goes into it, that's what they would find. And so satellite and scatterometer data show that, sufficiently.

The criteria for classifying a system was never to be dependent on an algorithm when there's enough proof. This is some JTWC/CPHC stuff.

NHC doesn't use Dvorak for upgrading into a TC most of the time. JTWC/CPHC.... now that's a different ballgame.

[cycloneye]

We have Tropical Storm Eugene

First advisory at 2 PM PDT.

EP, 05, 2017070718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1108W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE,

[Kingarabian]

No upgrade lol. Sheesh... The way it's developing - it'll have a mid level eye before the NHC starts to issue advisories.

I still bet they start them at 21z.

Right on the money:

EP, 05, 2017070718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1108W, 35, 1006, TS

[Kingarabian]

We have Tropical Storm Eugene[/]

First advisory at 2 PM PDT.

[size=150]EP, 05, 2017070718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1108W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE,

Glad they finally upgraded and went straight to TS. Thought I was seeing things lol.

[Kingarabian]

Look how big it is. When it peaks, it'll be a beauty and a highlight of the 2017 EPAC hurricane season:

[cycloneye]

Eugene has a great structure that spells a biggie down the road.

[cycloneye]

Only 48 hours to get strong.

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017

The area of low pressure several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized
during the past several hours. Earlier microwave images and current
enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show well-developed deep
convective spiral bands over the northeast and southwest quadrants.
A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that surface circulation has
become more symmetric and tropical-storm-force winds are located in
the convective band to the northeast of the center. Consequently,
the system is being classified as a tropical storm at this time. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt based primarily on the
scatterometer data. Eugene is expected to remain in an environment
of low shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist low- to
mid-level troposphere through 48 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is
forecast to traverse decreasing SSTs, which should induce a slow
weakening through the remainder of the period. The intensity
forecast is weighed heavily on the IVCN multi-model consensus and
shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before moving over
cooler waters.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A
retrograding mid-tropospheric trough currently centered over
northwestern Mexico has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge,
which will allow Eugene to continue moving northwestward through day
5. The global and ensemble models are in good agreement with this
large-scale scenario, although the UKMET is a bit of an outlier on
the left side of the guidance suite. The NHC track forecast is near
the center of the guidance envelope, and is close to the multi-model
TVCN and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 11.9N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.8N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.1N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.6N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.4N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Ntxw]

Continues to look better

[hurricanes1234]

If I remember correctly, just like the 2011 Eugene, the 2017 one is a large, well-organised storm well south of Baja California.

[Yellow Evan]

If I remember correctly, just like the 2011 Eugene, the 2017 one is a large, well-organised storm well south of Baja California.

The 2011 Incarnation was further west though.

[CaliforniaResident]

Track looks somewhat similar to Delores from 2015 although won't be as strong.

[Ntxw]

As we wait for Eugene to become a hurricane, tweet from Phil Klotzbach

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/883425082911055872




Still need ACE though. With Eugene's track it'll probably add 5-10 units (assuming cat 1/2). If it achieves major+ then perhaps 10-15 units.

[Kingarabian]

Nice >= -70C burst of convection near the COC now. CDO forming.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS now makes this a major.