EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

Will this Tropical Cyclone surpass the Fernanda ACE units total? ( 28.56 as of 15z advisory) I say it has a chance if all goes perfect on the enviroment and track.

I don't think it will beat Fernanda. Patricia was very strong and got about 17 units, but she was shorter lived. At the upper end it could turn out similar to Marie which upper bound might be 25 units. It would need to go west some to really crank up the ACE higher than Fernanda.

I don't know if Nine-E will be like Marie but boy that was a picturesque Cat 5, that I really question was 918mb since Odile was 918 but of course the background pressures later in the season is not the same, still though.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Although the convection is not very deep at this time, the
organization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with
various curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the
objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are
still 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist
environment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this
basis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression
could reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The
intensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a
prevailing favorable environment.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt.
The depression is moving around the periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the
Pacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the
west and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a
weakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
amplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more
westerly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
one and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance
envelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of
the coast of Mexico at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 9.0N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 9.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 10.0N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Sciencerocks]

[CaliforniaResident]

Will HIllary be the most powerful hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere for this year?
A real powerhouse intensification out in the open waters where she can rapidly intensify without causing any harm or threat to land.
Then gradually winding down over well off the waters of the Baja coast over colder waters.
Then as a remnant low, recurving into Southern California blessing us with badly needed, scarce summer rainfall to slow down our fire season.
HIllary, please live up to my expectations and don't disappoint. I'm counting on you.

[Ntxw]

HWRF by Wednesday

[WeatherGuesser]

Hasn't spun up yet, eh?

[Ntxw]

Looking better than Don did when he was named.

[CaliforniaResident]

Looking better than Don did when he was named.

A higher forced destroyed Don before he got any real power. Nothing can stop my gal, Hilary! Nothing!

[Sciencerocks]

Looking better than Don did when he was named.

Looks better then everything the Atlantic produced besides Arlene in April.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS all the way down to 932MB with RI:

[Ntxw]

2014 Hurricane Marie might be a good analog for this.



http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=81&t=116623

It would be really nice if we could get recon into this.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NINE EP092017 07/22/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 56 66 77 83 89 93 94
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 56 66 77 83 89 93 94
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 45 53 65 75 84 90
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 1 1 2 4 2 5 3 4 7 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 11 8 6 0 -5 -5 -6 -2 -1 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 79 37 33 33 343 256 144 163 110 297 24 20 29
SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 152 155 158 157 156 156 155 153 152 146
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 7 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 72 76 79 81 78 78 77 78 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 20 22 26 29 31
850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 33 24 16 15 9 7 19 -6 4 -1 8
200 MB DIV 16 21 25 42 46 51 109 102 129 57 64 60 64
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 659 705 699 650 603 526 511 454 385 403 490 586 558
LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.7 12.1 12.9 14.0 15.1 15.9 16.2 17.0 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 95.1 96.2 97.3 98.2 99.2 101.0 102.5 103.7 104.8 106.3 108.2 110.0 111.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 9 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 15 11 10 11 13 26 47 31 17 23 26 16 14

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 26. 36. 47. 53. 59. 63. 64.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 95.1

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.2 18.9 to 1.4 1.00 7.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 28.1% 21.0% 17.3% 0.0% 21.2% 20.9% 45.0%
Logistic: 7.3% 53.1% 35.7% 12.9% 5.5% 48.9% 65.8% 61.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 5.1%
Consensus: 6.9% 28.3% 19.0% 10.1% 1.8% 23.4% 29.2% 37.1%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

CZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Recent microwave images suggest that Tropical Depression Nine-E has
formed a small inner core with good curvature of the low cloud
lines. However, deep convection near this feature is currently
minimal, with most of the convection well away from the center over
the northwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates are in the
25-35 kt range, and based on these and the current state of the
central convection, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
cyclone has good outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 280/12. The depression is south of a
mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the
northeastern Pacific just west of the Baja California peninsula.
This pattern should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward
to northwestward for the next three days or so. After that time,
the ridge is forecast to strengthen a little, which should give the
tropical cyclone a more westward motion. The track guidance is in
good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is
similar to the old forecast. This forecast, which lies just north
of the various consensus models, keeps the core of the cyclone well
south of the coast of Mexico at this time.

The environment looks very favorable for strengthening, with the
depression forecast to be in light vertical shear and over waters
of 28-29C for at least the next 4 days. Based on this, a period of
rapid intensification seems likely, but when this will occur is not
clear. The intensity guidance shows generally slow strengthening
for the next 36 h, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is not
unusually high through 36 h. However, the aforementioned inner core
suggests that rapid intensification could begin if the convection
concentrates around this feature. Given the uncertainty, the
intensity forecast is changed little since the previous advisory,
showing the system becoming a hurricane just before 48 h and
getting to near major hurricane strength by the end of the period.
This forecast is above the guidance through 72 h, then is in good
agreement with the SHIPS model. It is possible that the current
forecast intensities may be too high during the first 36 h and not
high enough later in the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 9.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 9.7N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 10.7N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 11.8N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 12.8N 102.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 16.5N 108.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[cycloneye]

Interesting sentence about intensity.

It is possible that the current
forecast intensities may be too high during the first 36 h and not
high enough later in the forecast.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220833
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The satellite appearance of the depression hasn't changed much
during the past 6 hours, and the intensity remains 30 kt based on
an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS
ADT. Most of the convection is still removed from the center and
limited to the western half of the circulation. That said, the
intensity forecast thinking hasn't changed, and the environment is
still expected to support strengthening throughout the forecast
period. Given the current structure of the storm, significant
intensification doesn't seem imminent. However, looking at the
medium-term, the SHIPS-RII probability of an increase of 65 kt in 72
hours is up to 44 percent. The new intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but similar
after that. The forecast remains above all of the guidance for the
first two days, and near the SHIPS model after that.

The initial motion is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from
the Gulf of Mexico to western Mexico is the primary steering
feature for next few days, and the models are in good agreement on
a steady northwestward track beginning later today. All of the
global models depict the ridge strengthening after about 72 h, but
the extent to which the cyclone responds by turning toward the west
varies somewhat. In the models with a stronger vortex, most notably
the GFS, a weak upper-level low prevents the storm from turning too
sharply toward the west. A weaker modeled storm, as depicted in the
UKMET and HWRF would turn almost due west. Overall, the guidance
has shifted a little to the west for this advisory, so the forecast
has been nudged in that direction. It now lies on the right side of
the envelope, favoring the stronger solution of the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 9.6N 96.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 10.1N 98.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

It has been a slower proccess to develop into a Tropical Storm than expected so it wont get close to the Fernanda ACE total of 28.625 but it will get up there to the low to mid 20's once it begins to intensify.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NINE EP092017 07/22/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 58 69 80 84 90 93 92
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 58 69 80 84 90 93 92
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 44 51 61 72 81 83
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 2 3 2 5 4 2 7 7 7 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 3 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 40 75 107 261 263 261 298 169 63 48 21 44 30
SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.3 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 156 158 157 154 154 154 154 149 136 128
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.4 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 73 73 78 81 78 76 75 73 72 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 15 17 17 20 22 25 25 30 34 35
850 MB ENV VOR 33 20 8 4 0 -8 -5 1 -4 4 19 16 14
200 MB DIV 9 29 42 57 52 109 98 121 80 82 43 59 45
700-850 TADV 0 3 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -4
LAND (KM) 667 636 608 586 575 535 486 480 494 557 621 622 700
LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.0 18.3
LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.4 99.4 100.3 101.2 102.8 104.4 106.0 107.5 109.2 111.1 112.9 114.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 18 28 50 25 21 29 18 16 10 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 20. 22. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 28. 39. 50. 54. 60. 63. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.8 97.4

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.92 7.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 27.0% 20.4% 17.0% 0.0% 23.7% 24.0% 44.8%
Logistic: 3.7% 36.3% 23.1% 7.7% 3.1% 22.1% 42.6% 41.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.3% 7.9%
Consensus: 5.2% 21.7% 14.6% 8.2% 1.1% 15.4% 23.3% 31.4%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 12 UTC ##

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR IT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 98.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 98.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
two days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could reach hurricane status in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[WeatherGuesser]

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The depression has failed to strengthen as previously indicated, and
both the circulation and the convection are not currently as
organized as it seemed to be 24 hours ago when advisories were
initiated. Microwave data reveal that the center appears to be
located on the south side of the main convection, and the low and
mid-level centers are not aligned. Based on Dvorak numbers, the
maximum winds are estimated at 30 kt. Having said that, the
depression is expected to move through a very favorable moist
environment of low shear during the next several days, and the ocean
is plenty warm. With these conditions present, the NHC forecast
insists on strengthening and still anticipates that the depression
will become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Guidance is a little bit
less aggressive than earlier but still forecasts intensification.

With the low-level center difficult to locate, the initial motion
has become uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest
or 290 degrees at 10 kt. A persistent subtropical ridge extending
from Mexico westward across the Pacific will keep steering the
cyclone on the same general track for the next five days. This is
the solution provided by track guidance which, in fact, is tightly
clustered. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope,
and is not very different from the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 10.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.5N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila