ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

18z GFS has a stronger vorticity with this TW for Monday morning than previous runs, looks like it may show development on this run.

[NDG]

GFS is finally picking up on the system.

[RL3AO]

GFS is finally picking up on the system.

Well it developed a single cluster of thunderstorms that will probably go on to develop. A little convective feed-backy, but I'm curious to see what path it takes.

[NDG]

GFS is finally picking up on the system.

Well it developed a single cluster of thunderstorms that will probably go on to develop. A little convective feed-backy, but I'm curious to see what path it takes.

It has ridging from Bermuda across FL into the northern GOM even stronger than the Euro, so probably a track towards mainland MX.

[Kingarabian]

Moving west at a decent clip. Looks like it'll get burried in CA if it doesn't get picked up soon.

[Steve]

who woke up tropical some saying season was bust with short live system

Nothing strong has formed yet. Still in wait and see mode.

Would I be wrong to guess you aren't expecting to be seeing anything?

I actually agree, and I don't think this becomes anything monstrous. But I think there is a fairly good shot at a low to mid grade TS. I'd also put an early guess on a hit somewhere south of the border. Interaction with the Yucatán could interrupt any potential to get stronger, but you never know. I think the landfall range is Vera Cruz to Corpus Christi, and I think intensity would be (nothing but showers and storms) weak TD to Cat 2 depending on numerous factors. I would guess the farther north the stronger for the way this setup looks to evolve.

[NDG]

Moving west at a decent clip. Looks like it'll get burried in CA if it doesn't get picked up soon.

http://i.imgur.com/ouhAF6T.gif

Yeah, the GFS has been showing the western extension of the Bermuda ridge across FL and northern GOM even stronger than the Euro.

[stormreader]

12z Euro

Like that point of impact (favor it) along the very northern Yucatan. Think that's a little farther north than what I saw from another post showing the latest GFS. Think that might be spot on. Position in gulf at later time frame looks good to me too on that Euro run. After that is where I think it gets a little tricky.

[RL3AO]

Still more ridging in the GFS, although I'd wager a stronger system would still move towards N MX even in the GFS. There is just enough of a weakness present.

[Kingarabian]

Sitting in the BOC through hr 168 on the 18z GFS.

[weatherguy425]

Interesting to note today's trends, though. 06Z > 12Z > 18Z. GFS ridging weaker and weaker. Hard to call it a trend yet, but worth noting.

[TheStormExpert]

That's interesting because I've always noticed the GFS tends to underplay ridges like we might be seeing with the future of 99L.

[weatherguy425]

That's interesting because I've always noticed the GFS tends to underplay ridges like we might be seeing with the future of 99L.

Not saying there won't be ridging, but these are two different features; semi-seasonal Bermuda ridging in the Atlantic vs. transient linkage with the Sonoran Heat Ridge along the Gulf Coast.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[floridasun78]

i hearing from some of you forecast track been move to north that mean close to cuba and Haiti?

[RL3AO]

i hearing from some of you forecast track been move to north that mean close to cuba and Haiti?

Haiti no. Cuba very very unlikely. A northward shift would mean TX in all likelihood.

[Nimbus]

i hearing from some of you forecast track been move to north that mean close to cuba and Haiti?

There was a little low level vortex near 13N -67W headed almost due west.
Bermuda High extending west over Florida by the time this gets in the BOC or further north in the GOM.

Usually these systems gain latitude around the periphery of the ridging.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS Ensembles are much more bullish and farther north compared to the operational run.

[weatherguy425]

18z GFS Ensembles are much more bullish and farther north compared to the operational run.

And weaker - yet - with ridging along the Gulf Coast. Still VERY early in the game. But, worth watching closely.

[cycloneye]

20%-40%

A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea
and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the
disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[GCANE]

Appears a warm core has developed.

Will be interesting to see if a flare up occurs at sunrise.