ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Convection is building and appears to be expanding.

[hd44]

If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.

[HurricaneBrain]

Why would you be shocked?

If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.

[hd44]

Why would you be shocked?

If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.

Poorly organized and matching up with the ecmwf who shows it. There is limited turning right now on the cloud structure.

[HurricaneBrain]

I'm not buying it.

Why would you be shocked?

If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.

Poorly organized and matching up with the ecmwf who shows it. There is limited turning right now on the cloud structure.

[Alyono]

it's probably a wave now. This likely was not a tropical storm impact on the Windard Islands, but rather a strong wave/broad low pressure passage. Weather the same though

[tropicwatch]

Pressures might be dropping. Recon just went through an area with a pressure approximately 1008.4. The pressures in the same basic area on the previous pass was closer to 1010mb.

[Cunxi Huang]

shear...shear...shear...shear a lot lol

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Pressures might be dropping. Recon just went through an area with a pressure approximately 1008.4. The pressures in the same basic area on the previous pass was closer to 1010mb.

NEW convective bursts likely lowered the pressures slightly let's see if this continues

[tolakram]

It's building bands again so if it's not a well defined LLC I think it's borderline.

SLIDER
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16335&y=8181&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Blown Away]

12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...

This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours

[Alyono]

better defined center on this pass

[Blown Away]

12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...

This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours

Recent CMC, GFS, Navgem significantly weaker through 60 hours... Let's see how that plays out long term...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...

This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours

Recent CMC, GFS, Navgem significantly weaker through 60 hours... Let's see how that plays out long term...

Yes this was expected !

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...

This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours

Recent CMC, GFS, Navgem significantly weaker through 60 hours... Let's see how that plays out long term...

Euro said it could open up so like I said short term doesn't look promising

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

better defined center on this pass

Yep it's slowly getting better

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 62.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[bevgo]

Y'all don't know me since I rarely post but I fell I know y'all. #please be careful and I am praying for all effected by Harvey.
#2 nothing is allowed in coastal Mississippi or Louisiana this year. I have a big fan in my back yard and sending another to Louisiana. My hubby works in NOLA and I am trying to get on disability. I need him to work. My early retirement will not pay the bills

[Cunxi Huang]

TXNT24 KNES 181800
TCSNTL

A. 09L (HARVEY)

B. 18/1745Z

C. 13.1N

D. 62.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSE CLOUD LINES,
PROXIMITY NEAR OVERCAST, NOT SMALL SIZE. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

Shear pattern used. Definitely it's being sheared.