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Very impressive.
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CaliforniaResident wrote:Track looks somewhat similar to Delores from 2015 although won't be as strong.
Yellow Evan wrote:All tropical cyclone forecast models agree on a parallel the coast offshore track as Eugene remains on the western edge of a ridge. All models show intensification, with the GFS making this around 85 knots, GFS-P has 90 knots, ECMWF has 65 knots, HWRF has 75 knots, HWRF-P has 85 knots, and HMON has 85 knots, SHIPS/LGEM has 80 knots. However, given that this will be moving over the sharp SST's of the California Current, I think most of the guidance peaks this too late, and unless this moves slower than expected, Eugene will be over 25C water in 60 hours time. Latest SAB T number is at T1.5. With 48 hours left, the standard 1/T number a day seems too low, which would bring this to T3.5/55 knots in two days, given that for now the waters it is over is very warm and the shear is less than 10 knots. The so-called rapid intensification of T1.5/day seems more reasonable, and that would bring this to T4.5 in 48 hours. I'd expect a peak of 80 knots, but this could be conservative if it ramps up tonight.
hurricanes1234 wrote:One hour later, I haven't even gone to sleep yet and here's what I find ...
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