ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Nice ML vorticity.

[RL3AO]

I think NHC is right on with the 40%. A big convective burst tonight would help out a lot.

[Nimbus]

I think NHC is right on with the 40%. A big convective burst tonight would help out a lot.

As a training exercise we could go look a the mid level moisture maps and wager a prediction.
NHC said less than 50% and I think that is consistent with a slightly dry environment (and no strong convective burst) currently.

[gatorcane]

The eastern part of this monsoon trough may be what ultimately takes over. Convection is more concentrated there now and the latest GFS runs of the parallel and OP develop a good low-level vorticity that tracks WNW.

[gatorcane]

GFS and GFS-P spit out two vortices. GFS-P below. One is in the South Caribbean and another is further east east of Lesser Antilles:

[AtlanticWind]

The eastern part of this monsoon trough may be what ultimately takes over. Convection is more concentrated there now and the latest GFS runs of the parallel and OP develop a good low-level vorticity that tracks WNW.

I agree , the disturbance back around 38 w looks pretty good.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast
of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for some development of this system before it reaches the
Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time, less
favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional
development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[floridasun78]

this been crazy start of hurr season a lot invest in middle of Atlantic ocean were don't see invest until Aug

[Nimbus]

Convection back near -38w just keeps building near what I assume is a wave apex?
Could get a LLC to close off and climb up out of the ITCZ there.

[Ptarmigan]

Wasn't that one of the reasons why the 2005 season was so busy because of a favorable monsoon trough position?

2005 was most favorable in the Caribbean.

I wonder where the monsoon trough is normally positioned.

[Aric Dunn]

ITs looking better.. will know by first few visible images in the morning if its going to develop or not. as it will hit the carrib by tuesday so tomorrow is its only chance.

[abajan]

ITs looking better.. will know by first few visible images in the morning if its going to develop or not. as it will hit the carrib by tuesday so tomorrow is its only chance.

Yes, it does seem to be starting to get its act together.

[Weather150]

HWRF and HWRF Para getting this to a hurricane somehow. Wonder what they are seeing.

[gatorcane]

Wide view showing the two suspect area in the monsoon trough. The eastern area continues to build deep convection while the Western area does too. The second image shows the areas of 850mb vorticity. The eastern area is gradually gaining vorticity too. Keep an eye on this eastern area also:

[weathaguyry]

Invest 95L
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 17, 2017:

Location: 10.4°N 47.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Aric Dunn]

I'm leaning towards the eastern area to survive may not develop now but down the road somewhere.

though 95l looks like it will at least make it TD maybe don maybe more .. but it must get started before the caribb.

[abajan]

SHIPS is bullish

[img]http://i.imgur.com/iYCJmcc.png[img]

Yeah. What else is new?

[Alyono]

trailing system may keep the SAL from becoming entrained into the leading system. That may be what HWRF is seeing

[TheStormExpert]

Wide view showing the two suspect area in the monsoon trough. The eastern area continues to build deep convection while the Western area does too. The second image shows the areas of 850mb vorticity. The eastern area is gradually gaining vorticity too. Keep an eye on this eastern area also:

Kind of off topic but it seems like it's been ages since I've seen the Atlantic look as juicy as it does today. Hopefully this isn't a indication of what may be to come in the next 3 months.

[Weather150]

trailing system may keep the SAL from becoming entrained into the leading system. That may be what HWRF is seeing

Interesting.