ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

If you go right down the middle of the NHC shading, it looks like a bit of a northward turn near the end, possibly accounting for the model trend that has the ridge weakening.

[Alyono]

FWIW, NAVGEM 18Z is MUCH stronger

[tropicwatch]

It has lost a lot of its convection tonight but the upper level conditions appear to be favorable. The 850mb vorticity just north of Venezuela has been steadily increasing.

[USTropics]

GFS showing development again right before 90L's trip over Yucatan:

[Alyono]

looks like about a degree northward shift in the GFS

These trends are quite concerning to me

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS has a strong tropical storm at landfall.

[Alyono]

NAVGEM with what would be a cat 3/4 given its resolution near the TX/MX Border

[Alyono]

EC coming in quite a bit stronger at 96 hours. Solid TS heading to the Yucatan

[USTropics]

One potent cyclone at 144 hours on the 00z ECMWF:

[Siker]

Looks like the Euro is in the low 970's at landfall. Very similar to 12z, just 10mb stronger.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like the Euro is in the low 970's at landfall. Very similar to 12z, just 10mb stronger.

It's actually a bit farther north compared to 12z. Closer to the TX/MX border this run.

[Cpv17]

It's probably 50 miles or so further north than the last run.

[Jerry]

If you look at the 00Z for that last 3 runs it's further north on each successive run.

[Cpv17]

If you look at the 00Z for that last 3 runs it's further north on each successive run.

Getting closer and closer to TX with each run it seems. I think this is a time where the ensembles could really come in handy.

[Hammy]

If you look at the 00Z for that last 3 runs it's further north on each successive run.

Seems like it's getting stronger too, down 6mb from the last run.

[ouragans]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early
next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves
westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could
produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Alyono]

somehow, the GFS is coming in with only gradual intensification in the BOC, despite being under an upper high

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

somehow, the GFS is coming in with only gradual intensification in the BOC, despite being under an upper high

Conditions look favorable for Rapid developement once in that area ...... Am I right ? How much dry air and shear will be waiting for it ?

[tropicwatch]

The current front over the northern Gulf Coast appears to have stopped progressing southward. The front behind it also appears to have slowed its progression southward. If this continues, will it prevent high pressure from being able to build in the gulf and allow a more northward progression of 90L?

[cycloneye]

20%-60%

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical
wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche
through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions
appear conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.