ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
Invest #92L has a sharp wave axis in the monsoon trough, but no defined circulation at this point.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/897626471732326401

[northjaxpro]

92L looks to be organizing this evening. Good amount of convection to go along with some mid level spin. If 92L continues to organize a TD could form the next day or two......MGC

Give it another 12-24 hours or so. It will not take much to get the spin at the surface, if the convection sustains.I think this could be a TD as early as tomorrow evening.

[floridasun78]

look 92l will go into area that affecting 91l invest 91 look getting dry air tonight

[Nimbus]

look 92l will go into area that affecting 91l invest 91 look getting dry air tonight

Thats what NHC said.
Maybe both go way down south to Mexico?

[floridasun78]

look 92l will go into area that affecting 91l invest 91 look getting dry air tonight

Thats what NHC said.
Maybe both go way down south to Mexico?

who know this been cazy hurr season models having alot issue this season

[floridasun78]

do it look now 92l getting hit Africa dust too ? look storm weaking

[StormTracker]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5
Both look decent on MIMIC right now! Twins!

[Aric Dunn]

Looks quite impressive tonight considering. like 91L a pretty well defined circ has taken shape but with quite a bit more convection. the convection is not too terribly organized but it looks well on its way.

[Gustywind]

First appareance on SSD for 92L...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/0545 UTC 13.7N 34.3W T1.0/1.0 92L

[Blown Away]

06z... Shear drops off starting @days 4/5...

[jlauderdal]

06z... Shear drops off starting @days 4/5...

might not matter if 48-72 pans out

shear is trick as we know lets see how those values change moving forward, please keep posting that graphic

[SouthFLTropics]

Not only the shear but also look at the SST's as we progress in time. The temp goes up by 2 full degrees by the time 120 hours rolls around. The key to this whole thing is whether it can survive the TUTT. If it is able to maintain a decent vorticity we could end up with lift off in the Bahamas. This very much reminds me of the setup from a particular storm from 1992 that shall not be named.

[Michele B]

:uarrow: Not only the shear but also look at the SST's as we progress in time. The temp goes up by 2 full degrees by the time 120 hours rolls around. The key to this whole thing is whether it can survive the TUTT. If it is able to maintain a decent vorticity we could end up with lift off in the Bahamas. This very much reminds me of the setup from a particular storm from 1992 that shall not be named.

What's "TUTT" please?

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Not only the shear but also look at the SST's as we progress in time. The temp goes up by 2 full degrees by the time 120 hours rolls around. The key to this whole thing is whether it can survive the TUTT. If it is able to maintain a decent vorticity we could end up with lift off in the Bahamas. This very much reminds me of the setup from a particular storm from 1992 that shall not be named.

What's "TUTT" please?

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough

#10 on this page: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/FAQ/Basic_Definitions.php

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Not only the shear but also look at the SST's as we progress in time. The temp goes up by 2 full degrees by the time 120 hours rolls around. The key to this whole thing is whether it can survive the TUTT. If it is able to maintain a decent vorticity we could end up with lift off in the Bahamas. This very much reminds me of the setup from a particular storm from 1992 that shall not be named.

different path with andrew..this one is likely to never get that far north ...doesnt mean it wont hit the penninula but this one is looking to take a different track to get too possible the same landfall point

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: Not only the shear but also look at the SST's as we progress in time. The temp goes up by 2 full degrees by the time 120 hours rolls around. The key to this whole thing is whether it can survive the TUTT. If it is able to maintain a decent vorticity we could end up with lift off in the Bahamas. This very much reminds me of the setup from a particular storm from 1992 that shall not be named.

different path with andrew..this one is likely to never get that far north ...doesnt mean it wont hit the penninula but this one is looking to take a different track to get too possible the same landfall point

I see your point...92L seems to be more on a straight approach whereas Andrew took the up and around the block approach. Perhaps a better analogy for 92L would be Georges. With that said, the situation with the TUTT is reminiscent of the Andrew setup.

[Patrick99]

I don't know that we'll ever see a situation similar to Andrew again. The stair-step north of the islands, almost getting ripped part but then running into a brutally strong SE US high. What storm is even a slight analog to that? The closest I can think of is Betsy (similar results albeit a more jagged, circuitous route). Something like Georges does seem to be a far more typical late August into September track, where it just rides a big subtropical high all the way.

[Blown Away]

12z...

[cycloneye]

TCPOD of Wednesday August 16 that has the first mission on the 17th in the afternoon.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 16 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-077

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 17/1800Z                   A. 18/1130Z, 1730Z
       B  AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 17/1515Z                   C. 18/0930Z
       D. 13.7N 54.5W                D. 13.7N 59.5W
       E. 17/1730 TO 17/2230Z        E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
       19/1130Z NEAR 14.2N 66.2W


[SouthFLTropics]

So based on SHIPS output 92L has about 24 hours to beef up and make something of itself before it hits the wall of shear from the TUTT.