ATL: TEN - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Here is the gfs , not seeing anticyclone flow for 92l.
Cmc has anticyclonic flow which allows it to develop. Anticyclonic flow is basically an upper level high .
Cmc has anticyclonic flow which allows it to develop. Anticyclonic flow is basically an upper level high .
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9870
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
18z GFS 156hrs... W turn E of Bahamas and vorticity getting stronger... NE Caribbean gets whacked by future 93L...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Potentially interesting days ahead. 92L not quite dead yet; 93L significantly closer to Leewards this run. Models really not telling us a coherent story on these systems yet.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looks like the GFS is going to develop on this run east of Bahamas with ridge to the north with invest 92l turning west.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Regardless of intensity ... Gfs maintains high latitude ridging which would push any system west...
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
92L says don't write me off just yet. Watch for the comeback east of the Bahamas.
As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.
As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:92L says don't write me off just yet. Watch for the comeback east of the Bahamas.
As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.
Also we would need for future 93l ... to go out to sea, or its outflow could shear 92l. Better distance between the two systems would help 92l get going. Some of the models really intensify 93l and that would make a big outflow channel.
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9870
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:92L says don't write me off just yet. Watch for the comeback east of the Bahamas.
As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.
18 GFS has action, like 4 systems in a small area, 3 Atlantic & Pacific...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The 18zGFS if you look at it 92L might have an analog in Erin 1995
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0 likes
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9870
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
I'm sensing the magic door is opening just in time???
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
As mentioned future 93l outflow shears 92l to doom. But it is only one run. Ensembles much more important at 00z especially.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15455
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Thinking it will miss Florida but the the EC may be in play.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Wow this is some run on the 18z. Even 91L is now over the Yucatan moving North. It could emerge into the Gulf.
Last edited by blp on Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Fwiw, this run puts into play a scenario that I don't recall ever happening: 3 systems all making landfall simultaneously in such close proximity. If to be believed, central america, bahamas, and northern leewards all getting hit at the same time.
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
hd44 wrote:As mentioned future 93l outflow shears 92l to doom. But it is only one run. Ensembles much more important at 00z especially.
Agreed...If 93L doesn't get that close I think this gets more interesting. Of a different topic is where the GFS takes 93L to. This is a very complex setup with quite a few players at the table.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
sma10 wrote:Fwiw, this run puts into play a scenario that I don't recall ever happening: 3 systems all making landfall simultaneously in such close proximity. If to be believed, central america, bahamas, and northern leewards all getting hit at the same time.
Yep. I know it is fantasy but this is something to see.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9870
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Meanwhile 92L just on Central Fl Coast and 93L is like a Cat 3/4... Hint NW turn for 93L at 198 hrs...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
blp wrote:sma10 wrote:Fwiw, this run puts into play a scenario that I don't recall ever happening: 3 systems all making landfall simultaneously in such close proximity. If to be believed, central america, bahamas, and northern leewards all getting hit at the same time.
Yep. I know it is fantasy but this is something to see.
They are all too close to each other at the same time. Someone's going to be the odd man out and it appears that 92L is it. It gave it the best run through the TUTT though on this 18z GFS than we've seen in a while. Might be a trend.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests