ATL: JOSE - Models

[Powellrm]

No way Jose.

[ColdMiser123]

Ensemble guidance is showing a potential threat to the east coast from this.

The ensembles also now agree on this loop taking place in about five days. Like with Irma, the question is how far west can it get before a turn north, and what will the upper level pattern to the northeast of Jose be like?

[sma10]

Ensemble guidance is showing a potential threat to the east coast from this.

The ensembles also now agree on this loop taking place in about five days. Like with Irma, the question is how far west can it get before a turn north, and what will the upper level pattern to the northeast of Jose be like?

This is true. And if last nights UK is to be believed, Jose's 7 day position is particularly menacing, with it heading westerly in the SE Bahamas

[weathaguyry]

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[Hybridstorm_November2001]

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oh boy

On the bright side, this is ten days out and the GFS

[Weather150]

Far out, but Jose may be one to watch.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Dont look now but the EURO is very similar with a loop and west to N bahamas before recurving mere miles from Hatteras.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Dont look now but the EURO is very similar with a loop and west to N bahamas before recurving mere miles from Hatteras.

Considering its recent track record with Harvey and Irma, now I am a bit worried.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I would be a lot more leery of it moving more west in the coming days just as they did with irma

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

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Worser than Sandy... what?!

[clipper35]

That was the 12z run new 18z run has it grazing northeast coast then quickly scoots out to sea.

[KWT]

Watch the trend everyone, the models with Irma were nearly always too far east, the global steering current is still broadly similar out there and so I'd expect to see similar bias emerge.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I believe since UKMET is pretty much at this point the most accurate forecast (look at Irma) on the track, i think he might head to SE Bahamas pretty soon, before devestating Bahamas. What Jose will do after Bahamas isn't pretty known yet based on UKMET, but i believe this might make a Sandy re-run but stronger than Sandy itself.

[Ken711]

I believe since UKMET is pretty much at this point the most accurate forecast (look at Irma) on the track, i think he might head to SE Bahamas pretty soon, before devestating Bahamas. What Jose will do after Bahamas isn't pretty known yet based on UKMET, but i believe this might make a Sandy re-run but stronger than Sandy itself.

Stronger than Sandy, I don't liker the sounds of that. I'm thinking he would make landfall in the NC. The Global models were way north with Irma this far out.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If the possible hit on NYC verifies all I can say is unbelievable: parts of Texas, much of Florida (hope I'm wrong) and New York City all devastated by major hurricanes inside three weeks.

[hurricaneCW]

That was the 12z run new 18z run has it grazing northeast coast then quickly scoots out to sea.

That's the obvious climo outcome that will probably come to pass. I'd give it a 85 percent chance of an OTS track right now.

[CrazyC83]

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That would be three $100 billion disasters in less than a month.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If the possible hit on NYC verifies all I can say is unbelievable: parts of Texas, much of Florida (hope I'm wrong) and New York City all devastated by major hurricanes inside three weeks.

Costliest hurricane season ever.

[Airboy]

If the trend continues this could end up in Florida....

[CrazyC83]

00Z GFS brings a monster hurricane into southern New Jersey around 252 hours.