ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

Joe bast: of the 2 features, think front runner will develop and be in gulf next week, possible Texas threat and so is of most concern to me right now

[BobHarlem]

What is making people think there's any significant Texas threat? Mexico surely, but I don't see anything (yet) that would bring it that far north.

[stormlover2013]

Stronger system it goes more north

[Tireman4]

Interesting days ahead for the CONUS.

[Stormcenter]

This far out it's a threat to EVERYONE west of it. IMO

[Tireman4]

This far out it's a threat to EVERYONE west of it. IMO

Hence my statement of the CONUS...LOL....We have days and days to think and discuss this.

[Steve]

Here's an update on the morning's global models for anyone who hasn't looked yet.

ECMWF 00Z takes a 984mb intensifying storm into NE Mexico in 7 days around Laguna Madre y Delta del Rio Bravo State Park roughly between the cities of El Mezquital and San Fernando. The EC I have access to which is only the 24 hour runs, has it barely inland at 168 hours so it probably landfalled around 160 hours or so (next Thursday evening).

CMC 00Z really doesn't do much with it and buries a 1009mb low into Coatzacoalcos in the State of Vera Cruz around 132 hours (Wednesday night).

NAVGEM 06Z has a stair-stepping 976mb Low strengthening but curving back west at 144 hours which is as far out in the run as I can get. This would be a somewhat strong hurricane hit around Tampico. The previous run (00Z goes out further) had this hitting just south of Brownsville in NE Mexico. NAVGEM likes 90L much more than 99L.

JMA 00Z has a 1009mb low buried down in the Bay of Campeche at 192 hours (8 days / next Friday night) but hasn't landfalled it yet. It's most similar to the CMC. Like NAVGEM, it also doesn't show much with 99L.

[TheStormExpert]

In my opinion for now I'm thinking this could pull an Alex(2010) and develop into a potentially decent hurricane and go straight into NE Mexico missing S. TX by 50-100 miles.

[srainhoutx]

CARCAH has tasked a potential RECON Mission @ 18Z on Sunday down to the NW Caribbean to the SW of Jamaica.

[NDG]

I noticed that the Euro has been trending towards a weaker western extension of Bermuda ridge on its forecast runs so south TX need to pay attention if that trend continues. IMO.

[Stormcenter]

And weaker ridging to the north

Stronger system it goes more north

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/893492785218809857




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/893492848800169985

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS is weaker with this system in the short term. It doesn't have as strong of a signature before the Yucatan.

[tropicwatch]

I imagine it will help when it gets away from SA and the convection might start building.

[Siker]

CMC now develops this in the BoC. UKMET has shown an EPAC system for a few runs.

[zeehag]

my friends in venezuela on margarita island stated yesterday at 5 pm they suddenly had enough rain to fill a swimming pool and overflow into house.
it is still raining there, last she spoke.
this one didnt give her advanced warning, what with their communications lack of system.
impressive rainfall.

[Hammy]

Looks substantially weaker than yesterday, but likely due to the location--I've seen waves almost vanish to the point of not even seeing them on satellite, only to flare back up in the western Caribbean.

[tolakram]

Tis the season to stare at the euro runs, waiting for that next frame.

12Z Init

[tolakram]

[tolakram]