ATL: TEN - Models

[StormTracker]

The northwestern Vort is throwing outflow boundaries.
Southern vort is dry again but well defined.
Any of the models that develop the southern vort recurve east of Florida?

Are there any models developing the southern vort is my question...

[StormTracker]

If the very well defined southern vort could steal some of that convection from the northern vort to get going, I think the models would change their scenario. Could the ULL possibly kill off the northern vort and the southern one take over?

[SootyTern]

The northwestern Vort is throwing outflow boundaries.
Southern vort is dry again but well defined.

Is that NW vort pushing the ULL out of the way? ULL is looking squished right now

[N2FSU]

The northwestern Vort is throwing outflow boundaries.
Southern vort is dry again but well defined.
Any of the models that develop the southern vort recurve east of Florida?

Are there any models developing the southern vort is my question...

Perhaps that's what the 12z GFS is trying to do, with it forming something on the trailing southern end of the wave once it crosses the peninsula?

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12z Euro is showing slightly more defined vorticity than on recent runs. The 850 mb vort hangs out around FL for a while... SE FL on Tuesday, crosses over to just offshore SW FL on W and Th, and back across to just offshore ECFL on Friday. Eventually develops it as it moves NE. This is a slight step toward development. So, more models are starting to develop this eventually, just not a lot of agreement yet on when and where. I will say, that if the Euro is right, FL may get quite a bit of rain regardless of development because of multi days of close proximity to 92L.

[Nimbus]

The northwestern Vort is throwing outflow boundaries.
Southern vort is dry again but well defined.

Is that NW vort pushing the ULL out of the way? ULL is looking squished right now

The ULL north of the Yucatan looks squished from the Texas high.
The ULL might fill in or dive Southwest around the high which would pretty much guarantee 92L crosses Florida into the gulf.

[blp]

Yes closes vorticity at 72hr. Big change from last run.

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian Ensembles show Harvey in the SW gulf and 92L possibly in the Eastern Gulf although looks like more show East of Florida

[ColdMiser123]

The 12z EPS is considerably more aggressive on development off of the SE coast. Ridge placement is not favorable for this to impact locations north of Florida, and the overwhelming majority of ensemble members keep 92L offshore.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a west shift in the guidance:

[gatorcane]

Could this be the vorticity SE of 92l and north of Puerto Rico the GFS has been showing moving up the cost of SE Florida in 96-108 hours?

[pgoss11]

Looks like a west shift in the guidance:

That's a pretty abrupt turn out to sea. Must be the orientation of the ridge or just following the flow from the trough.

[SFLcane]

There's no doubt that what it ever it is is paying SFL a visit now in what form who knows.

[gatorcane]

Based on the last ECMWF run, 92l will be impacting Florida from Tuesday through Friday so four days.

[bamajammer4eva]

Some of the models recurve so sharply that it almost looks like they are hinting at a loop. Then HWFI looks too far south to recurve.

[tgenius]

Based on the last ECMWF run, 92l will be impacting Florida from Tuesday through Friday so four days.

This may end up the no name storm in 99 or 2000 that dumped like 15-20 inches of rain in dade! I was rained in and couldn't get to work

[jlauderdal]

Based on the last ECMWF run, 92l will be impacting Florida from Tuesday through Friday so four days.

This may end up the no name storm in 99 or 2000 that dumped like 15-20 inches of rain in dade! I was rained in and couldn't get to work

Sure you were

Crazy storm, tons of water hardly any wind

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[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Most models keep this weak I'm not expecting much more than a weak tropical storm stalled off the east coast of Florida

[alienstorm]

With all the rain that we have had in Southern Florida a prolonged storm even if weak will create massive flooding.

[tgenius]

Based on the last ECMWF run, 92l will be impacting Florida from Tuesday through Friday so four days.

This may end up the no name storm in 99 or 2000 that dumped like 15-20 inches of rain in dade! I was rained in and couldn't get to work

Sure you were

Crazy storm, tons of water hardly any wind

Actually I really was! My apartment complex had 12-15 inches of rain. A coworker with an old 70s Toyota Land Cruiser had to pick me up and drop me off from work.

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