WPAC: 01W - Post Tropical

[euro6208]

Weaker and weaker in most of the models. Likely this will ever become a TC again.

[euro6208]

JMA has it as a TD in 24 hours again.

[1900hurricane]

Meh, could be worse...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 130336
TCSWNP

A. 01W (NONAME)

B. 13/0230Z

C. 11.0N

D. 112.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...01W HAS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH EXTENSIVE
PERIPHERAL CONVECTION. MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
IN BROAD SWEEPING BANDS ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS FLARING NORTHEAST OF
CENTER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 2 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG SPIRAL GIVES
DT=1.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

The convection is a sheared mess, but there actually is a fairly vigorous low level circulation in there.



Also, 01W is once again a JMA tropical depression.

WWJP25 RJTD 140000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 38N 155E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 155E TO 38N 160E 36N 164E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 155E TO 35N 151E 34N 143E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW WEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 41N 160E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 998 HPA AT 47N 142E
MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 121E 25N 124E 19N 120E 19N 115E 23N 115E 28N
121E.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 50N 155E 55N 162E 60N 180E 50N 180E 50N 170E 50N 155E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 50N 155E 54N 160E
50N 170E 42N 170E 50N 155E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 45N 151E NORTH 10 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 34N 171E EAST 25 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 111E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 12N 127E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 17N 161E ESE 30 KT.
HIGH 1004 HPA AT 41N 169E SE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N 134E TO 25N 142E 28N 150E 29N 155E 28N
165E.
COLD FRONT FROM 33N 180E TO 33N 177E 34N 173E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has re-issued their Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert as well.

WTPN21 PGTW 140030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 111.8E TO 8.9N 107.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 111.1E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 111.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY
260NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 132249Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE WEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS, AND SST VALUES OF 27-28C.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE
COAST OF VIETNAM, OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150030Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 140922

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)

B. 14/0900Z

C. 9.92N

D. 110.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION SHEARED
84NM YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0506Z 10.02N 111.00E AMS2
14/0653Z 10.00N 111.02E SSMI
14/0724Z 9.96N 110.98E MMHS


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 140906
TCSWNP

A. 01W (NONAME)

B. 14/0830Z

C. 9.9N

D. 110.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL
LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED GREATER THAN 1.25DEG
FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. DT=1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 141849

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (E OF VIETNAM)

B. 14/1800Z

C. 9.47N

D. 109.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

TXPQ21 KNES 141503
TCSWNP

A. 01W (NONAME)

B. 14/1430Z

C. 9.3N

D. 110.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/1017Z 9.3N 110.9E WINDSAT
14/1111Z 9.4N 110.6E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

JTWC briefly warned on this reincarnated depression.

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 8.9N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 8.8N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 106.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING, FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE. TD 01W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM BY TAU
12. DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 6 FEET.//
NNNN